AFC South Division Predictions and Win Totals

AFC West
AFC North
AFC East
AFC South (Reading Now)
NFC South
NFC West
NFC East
NFC North

We move on to the AFC South this week, which has been mainly dominated by the Colts the past few years. Teams like the Titans and Texans look to be on the rise this year, but can either improve enough to beat out the Colts for the division? Here's how I see things breaking down in the South this year:

• Houston Texans
• Win Line: 8.5
  
• Odds to win division: +350

Houston finished 2009 with their first winning season in team history, barely missing the playoffs with a 9-7 record. However, Texans followers were left with the feeling that the season could have been so much more. On a number of occasions the Texans gave away games, whether it be by a last minute costly turnover, or by a missed field goal. It's pretty safe to say that this team was better than it's record. The success of this team came mostly from it's passing game, as it's rushing game took a big step back in 2009. Steve Slaton has since lost the weight he put on in hopes of getting his 2008 form back. Foster also looked to be an explosive back with potential towards the end of the season, and we'll probably see an improved running game out of the Texans in 2010 that has solved it's fumbling problems.

The defense for this team is a bit of a concern early on with Cushing suspended for four games, however I don't think his absence will doom this team and a 2-2 start is very reasonable. CB Kareem Jackson should help this pass defense take a step forward from where it was last year, and if Mario Williams can stay a bit healthier this season he could have more of an impact than he did last year. What I think hurts this team in the end is the brutal schedule they face. I believe this team will be improved from where it was last year, but they're going to have to get the job done against much tougher teams. Given their tendency to give games away last year, it's hard not to see that happening again this season, though I doubt it happens as often. I could see the Texans finishing with anywhere from 7 to 11 wins, making any total bet pretty dangerous. Their +350 odds are definitely worth considering for the division title as it presents decent value, but it all boils down to whether or not you think they can close out games better this season. I think in the end the schedule will be too tough, and we'll see the Texans falling just short yet again.

Projected Record: 9-7
Total Play: NO PLAY

• Indianapolis Colts
• Win Line: 11
  
• Odds to win division: -160

The 2009 Colts cruised to a 14-0 start before mailing in the final two games of the season to try and rest up their starters. They finished with a 14-2 record, and came up short in the Super Bowl in a loss to the Saints. All around the Colts were a very strong team, with a well above average defense and one of the best passing attacks in the NFL. The biggest flaw one could find with this team would be the rushing attack, which ranked 30th in the NFL in yards per rush attempt. This really wasn't a problem for the team however as Manning was able to keep the chains moving passing the ball without much problem.

When you look at this team going forward in 2010, there's no denying that this lack of a rushing attack still exists. The Colts didn't really add anyone to help give themselves a more explosive running game, and as a result probably will rely mainly on the pass yet again next year. The Colts will have WR Anthony Gonzales returning from injury this season though, giving them even more depth in an already deep pool of wide receivers. Dallas Clark should also have another productive season at tight end, and this passing game will be as dangerous as ever. On defense, a lot of the same players are in place, although it is notable that Bob Sanders is coming out of the offseason healthy for the first time in a while. It probably isn't practical to expect him to play all of the games this season given his history, but I'd expect he'll play in more than just the two he played in last season. The defense should be at a similar if not slightly higher level than it was last year. My biggest concern for the Colts this coming season is the fact that they face a much tougher schedule than last season. The Titans and Texans should be improved, and I think we may see a 4-2 division record this season as opposed to their stellar 6-0 record last season. Out of division presents four to six tougher games as well, so I don't see another run at perfection like last season. This is still probably the strongest team in the AFC South though, and I think the Colts will snag the division title again by a narrow margin.

Projected Record: 11-5
Total Play: NO PLAY

• Jacksonville Jaguars
• Win Line: 7.5
  
• Odds to win division: +900

The Jaguars mustered a 7-9 record in 2009, despite being very poor statistically in a couple of key areas. Jacksonville found themselves ranked dead last in pass defense, although part of that could be attributed to playing in the same division as the Texans and Colts. The Jaguars were also well below average in yards per pass attempt on offense, which negated their great rushing attack and made them the 8th worst team in the NFL in PPG. Combine that with the fact that they were 6th worst in the NFL in points allowed per game, and it's quite surprising their record didn't turn out worse.

2010 brings back a very similar offensive unit for the Jaguars, as Garrard is still the QB for the team and the offense will likely run through RB Maurice Jones-Drew yet again. Aside from Jones-Drew, this offense is still lacking the weapons to be explosive though, and I expect another season where this team struggles to put points on the board. The Jaguars had a couple of big additions on defense this season, acquiring DE Aaron Kampman and MLB Kirk Morrison. However, the Jaguars also released DT John Henderson, and did their best to fill that hole drafting rookie Terrance Knighton. What we'll see out of Kampman remains to be seen as he's coming off of ACL surgery, and Knighton has some pretty big shoes to fill and likely will struggle to his first year in the league. The Jaguars still have a huge weakness in their secondary this season as well, and will probably struggle against the pass yet again. I don't think the Jaguars can beat the Texans both games this year, and I think we're looking at a best case scenario of a 2-4 division finish for this team, with 1-5 much more likely. The Jaguars drew a bit easier of a schedule than the rest of their division opponents, but in the end I don't think that this will be a successful team this year and they'll likely find themselves in last place in the division yet again.

Projected Record: 6-10
Total Play: UNDER 7.5

• Tennessee Titans
• Win Line: 8.5
  
• Odds to win division: +350

The Titans are a very interesting team to try and figure out. After a sluggish 0-6 start, the Titans posted an 8-2 record under QB Vince Young. Throwing out those six games that Collins started, the Titans were the #1 rushing team and #11 passing team, putting up the 8th most PPG in the NFL. Tennessee's main struggle was on defense, as they were 28th against the run and 13th against the pass.

2010 is tough to predict for the Titans, partially due to Chris Johnson's contract situation. Johnson is currently making less base salary than his backup, and appears ready to hold out because of it. Whether or not Johnson misses any kind of time obviously is a huge factor in the success of this team, but for this writing I will assume the Titans work something out with him and he's back with plenty of time to spare. WR Kenny Britt showed flashes of potential in 2009, and in 2010 he'll hopefully avoid the Sophomore slump and give Young somewhere to throw the ball. The offense should function similarly to 2009 though, with it running through Johnson and Young being used sparingly to get things done with his arm. On defense, first round draft pick Derrick Morgan should provide a fairly immediate help to the unit, and Cortland Finnegan should return healthy this season to help shore up the pass defense a bit more. The defense should take a step back towards it's 2008 form, however I doubt it reaches quite that level again. The Titans need a lot to go right to win the division, and I just don't think that they have what it takes to get the job done.

Projected Record: 9-7
Total Play: NO PLAY

2010 Projected AFC South Standings:
Colts: 11-5
Texans: 9-7
Titans: 9-7
Jaguars: 6-10

AFC South Plays:
Jaguars UNDER 7.5
Colts to win division: -160

AFC East Division Predictions and Win Totals

AFC West
AFC North
AFC East (Reading Now)
AFC South
NFC South
NFC West
NFC East
NFC North

We're on to Part 3 of our 8 part installment of breaking down each division for the 2010 season. As usual, win lines come from the Venetian and odds for winning the division come from sportsbook.com. This week brings us to an interesting division that should be much improved from last year, the AFC East. I believe this division may be a little more clear cut than some people think though. Here's how I see the East playing out:

• Buffalo Bills
• Win Line: 5.5
• Odds to win division: +2000 (20-1)
  

I think it's safe to declare the Bills dead before their season even starts. Cursed by a brutal schedule and three teams in their division that are better than them, it's hard to see how the Bills can manage a .500 record, let alone a division win. Trent Edwards remains this team's starting QB, despite having just 24 tds to 25 ints over the course of his career. Normally I'm an optimist when it comes to young quarterbacks improving as they age, however Edwards has nobody besides Lee Evans to throw the ball to now that Terrell Owens is gone. Defenses have shown in the past that they can shut Evans down, and last time he was #1 receiver on the team he only managed to score three touchdowns. The running back situation is a bit confusing right now as Marshawn Lynch is still on the team, however he's listed last on the depth chart and I assume he'll be traded before the start of the season. That leaves Fred Jackson and CJ Spiller to compete for playing time, and although I believe the presence of Spiller will help bring up the Bills' rushing numbers slightly, I doubt it'll be a dramatic improvement. With McGee still at CB the Bills should still be decent against the pass, but I expect that their #3 pass defense in yards/pass attempt will take a step back as they have big concerns at strong safety. A 6-10 team last season, I see the Bills as a team that has taken a very small step back from where they were last year. Combined with a much tougher division this year (I expect a 1-5 division record at best) and a much tougher schedule (facing the NFC North and AFC North), I see the Bills posting a dismal record and ending the year in the bottom of the AFC East.

Projected Record: 4-12
Total Play: UNDER 5.5

• Miami Dolphins
  
• Win Line: 8
• Odds to win division: +300 (3-1)
  

The 2009 Miami Dolphins struggled to a 7-9 record last season, although they were 7-7 under QB Chad Henne. The Dolphins continued to maintain their reputation as a run first team (5th most rush attempts per game in the NFL), and managed to be effective as well as they ranked 10th in yards/rush attempt. The passing game left something to be desired, 23rd in the NFL in yards/pass attempt, however they were a very poor defensive unit which was a big reason that they struggled. They allowed the 8th most PPG in the NFL, and although they were only slightly below average against the run, they ranked 28th in the NFL against the pass.

As far as addressing weaknesses goes, the acquisition of WR Brandon Marshall was a great start to fixing the passing game for the Dolphins as he's currently one of the best receivers in the game. With Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams returning at RB, and Marshall now joining this offense, the Dolphins should improve upon the #23 ranking in PPG last season. The problem I see for the Dolphins in 2010 is that it looks like their defense has taken a step back from 2009, a big issue considering it's struggles noted above. They've lost Joey Porter and Jason Taylor, raising some questions as to who will step up at the Linebacker position this season for them. This duo accounted for 15.5 of the team's 44 sacks last season, and I have a hard time believing that their absence won't be felt. In their secondary, the Dolphins really haven't added any new guys, so how does this pass defense see a dramatic improvement? In the end I see the defense being too much of a liability for this team, and although the offense should improve the Dolphins are in for a mediocre 2010. Save your money and stay away from picking them to win the division, as 3-1 odds offer no value whatsoever.

Projected Record: 8-8
Total Play: NO PLAY

• New England Patriots
  
• Win Line: 9.5
• Odds to win division: +125 (1.25-1)
  

The Patriots were one of the more inconsistent teams in the league in 2009, winning the AFC East with a 10-6 record before getting blown out in round 1 of the playoffs. There's no doubt injuries hurt this team down the stretch, but if you look at their entire regular season their best win of the season was quite possibly against the Ravens in Week 4, and in that game one of the Ravens' wide receivers dropped the would be winning touchdown. The Patriots beat a lot of teams that really just weren't that good, and struggled to get the job done against the better teams in the league. Of course, a big part of this can be attributed to Brady coming off of his knee injury and struggling to find consistency all year. But have the Pats made the right moves for 2010 to keep their hold on top of the AFC East?

Obviously, Brady should be a bit more comfortable this year another year removed from his knee injury. He looked like two different Quarterbacks at times last year, and we should see more of the Tom Brady we remember from 2007 this coming year. However, Brady will have a tough time as he'll likely be without Welker for the beginning of the season, and although the Patriots added Holt at WR, I'm not sure he has much left to offer in the NFL. The Patriots' rushing game was abysmal last season, ranking 26th in the NFL in yards per rush attempt, and they've done absolutely nothing to fix that this season. The Patriots also ranked poorly in pass and rush defense, however they managed to keep the damage minimal as they ranked 6th in the NFL in points allowed per game. This season, the loss of Jarvis Green could hurt this unit and I expect the Patriots to allow a few more points per game than last year, while defensive yardage allowed stays about the same. When it comes down to it, the Patriots are a team that wins through the air. With that being what the Jets specialize in shutting down, a sweep of the Patriots this season would not surprise me at all (Welker was the key piece in last year's win for the Pats, who knows what kind of shape he'll be in after he returns). Combined with a much tougher schedule than last year, I think the Patriots come up short this season in the AFC East.

Projected Record: 9-7
Total Play: NO PLAY

• New York Jets
  
• Win Line: 9.5
• Odds to win division: +140 (1.4-1)

In 2009, the Jets were pretty much handed a playoff spot as the Colts and Bengals both mailed in games against them, leaving them with a 9-7 record. The team was phenomenal on defense, as they were the #1 passing defense and #5 rushing defense in the league, and on offense they were the #6 rushing offense. The biggest issue for the Jets was the passing game, as rookie QB Mark Sanchez had a very ugly stretch of games in the middle of the season in which he threw most of his interceptions. Ultimately the Jets lost in the AFC Championship game to the Colts, as Peyton Manning proved too much for the defense to overcome.

The Jets enter the 2010 season with lofty expectations, deservedly so in my opinion. The pass defense looks to have improved, hard to believe given their #1 ranking last year, but the addition of Cromartie and Wilson give the Jets three amazing cornerbacks. Not only that, but the defense has also added Jason Taylor from the Dolphins, and will have Kris Jenkins returning from an ACL tear last season. This will be an elite unit once again, and probably the best defense in the league. The questions the Jets have to answer are on offense. You have to think that Sanchez will improve from last year, he showed flashes of potential throughout the season and put a few great games together. He also gave a few away by failing to take care of the ball and struggling with accuracy, but I believe he will have less games like that this season. Santonio Holmes will give him one more weapon to work with (after his suspension ends), and the Jets now have one of the deeper WR corps in the NFL with Edwards and Cotchery behind him. There are also some questions about whether or not the running game can be as effective without Thomas Jones, but from what I saw last year Greene was a much more effective back and Tomlinson should be able to help take some of the load off. Although Tomlinson may not be the great RB he once was, he will certainly do more in New York than he did behind the awful offensive line he had to play behind last year. The Jets are the class of the AFC East and possibly the NFL, although there is always the possibility of a team like the Colts that could topple them because they have so many weapons on offense. However, not crossing the Colts in the regular season and with a lot of teams on their schedule that rely heavily on the pass, I think the Jets can get off to a hot start and cruise to the AFC East title.

Projected Record: 11-5
Total Play: OVER 9.5

One final note, betting both the Jets and the Patriots to win the East will very likely result in a small profit, as I feel like you can count out the Dolphins and Bills. With the odds at +140 and +125, a bet on each would be the safest approach. I'm sticking with my gut and going with the Jets however, so here's a recap of all my picks this writeup:

Jets OVER 9.5
Bills UNDER 5.5
Jets to win AFC East +140

Good luck to anyone who makes any plays!

AFC North Division Predictions and Win Totals

AFC West
AFC North (Reading Now)
AFC East
AFC South
NFC South
NFC West
NFC East
NFC North

Last week we took a look at the AFC West (linked above), this week we'll move on to the more competitive AFC North. Like last week, win totals lines are taken from the Venetian, the division odds are from sportsbook.com. Again, I've never tested my ability to pick futures before, and there are many factors along the way that could affect how this all plays out such as injuries or trades. So as usual if anyone chooses to bet on these don't go nuts. With that said, here's what I'm seeing for the AFC North:

• Baltimore Ravens
• Win Line: 9
• Odds to win division: -110

The Ravens had a very up and down 2009 season, finishing out the year with a 9-7 record and losing in the second round of the playoffs. Early in the year, Flacco was playing well, and the Ravens' offense looked like a top 10 unit. However, his play declined down the stretch, although a good deal of the decline I believe can be attributed to a hip/quad injury he was playing through.

People who don't believe in the 2010 Ravens mostly cite Flacco as their reason, as there isn't a great deal of belief he can get the job done. Personally, I believe the Ravens have all the pieces in place to be an elite team in 2010. For starters, they significantly upgraded their wide receivers this offseason, as they added WRs Anquan Boldin and Donte Stallworth. Boldin is already one of the best WRs in the game, and Stallworth offers this team a big play threat as he is one of the faster receivers in the league. RB Ray Rice, the brightest spot in the Ravens' offense last season, will still be out there as well. Rice ran for 5.3 yards per carry, and put up over 200o yards of total offense for the Ravens, over 700 of them receiving. Flacco will enter the year healthy and I believe playing at a high level once again, and with four great weapons (Boldin, Mason, Stallworth, Rice) I believe this is going to be a very explosive offense. On defense, the additions of Mount Cody and Sergio Kindle should keep this rush defense as nasty as ever, it was #1 in the NFL last year and should be in that neighborhood again. The weakness at CB still exists, but they've found ways to deal with it in the past and should have more than enough offense to make up for it this year. The Ravens look best to win the division, and should be set for a deep run in the playoffs.

Projected Record: 11-5
Total Play: OVER 9

• Cincinnati Bengals
• Win Line: 8
• Odds to win division: +350 (3.5-1)

The 2009 Bengals surprised a lot of people, winning the AFC North with a 10-6 record before losing in the first round of the playoffs to the Jets. A big part of the Bengals' success was their much-improved defense, which was 7th against the pass and 6th against the run. It also seemed though that the Bengals had a lot of breaks go their way (aside from the Broncos' Week 1 miracle victory). The Bengals had down to the wire wins against all of their division foes at least once, and wound up sweeping the tough division.

Despite winning the North last season, I'm fairly certain that the Bengals fall short this year by a couple of games. Don't get me wrong, I do believe the Bengals have improved this year. They've added a much needed second wide receiver Antonio Bryant, and also Jermaine Gresham to help at the tight end position. This should help open things up for RB Cedric Benson, so I expect that he has another quality season. All of this put together should bring this offense up from its below average numbers last year, although it remains to be seen how significant the increase is. The problem I see for the Bengals is their tough schedule, it's the 4th toughest schedule this coming year in terms of teams' winning percentages last year. The Bengals draw the Chargers and Colts for their extra two games, while the Ravens draw the softer opponents the Broncos and Texans. I also don't think it's likely at all that the Bengals sweep the division again, I anticipate a 4-2 division record at best. With the tough AFC East and NFC South as their out of division opponents this season, I see the Bengals winning anywhere from seven to nine games. Given their improvements I'll give them the high end of that projection for now, but I'm not nearly confident enough in it to bet their win total as I see too much downside.

Projected Record: 9-7
Total Play: NO PLAY

• Cleveland Browns
• Win Line: 5
• Odds to win division: +1200 (12-1)

2009 was a year to forget for the Browns, as they finished last in the North with a 5-11 record. In all honesty, the team wasn't even as good as the record indicated. This team was dismal on both sides of the ball, throwing for a league worst 4.4 yards/pass attempt, and ranking 29th in both rush defense and pass defense. Their brightest spot on offense was the rushing game, and even that was below average as the team ranked 19th in yards/carry. Joshua Cribbs did everything he could to help this team in the return game and on offense, but he wasn't able to win many games by himself.

The 2010 Browns find themselves with new pieces in place in key areas in 2010. They've finally found a new quarterback, as they picked up veteran Jake Delhomme this offseason. However, it remains to be seen if Delhomme can provide them the answer they're looking for. This is a quarterback who threw 8 touchdowns to 18 interceptions in 11 games, and one could argue that he had better receivers in Carolina than he does now. Rookie Colt McCoy could find himself playing before the end of the year, but I expect he'll struggle as almost every first year rookie QB does. RB Jerome Harrison finished the year out strong with 561 yards rushing in the last three games, however he did so against three of the worst rush defenses in the NFL. I'm not sure if I'm buying into him yet as a game changing running back, or if he can help keep the chains moving for this dismal offense. On the defensive side of the ball, Outside Linebacker Matt Roth is looking for a trade as the Browns aren't offering him the long term contract he's looking for, and if he were to leave this defense it certainly would be another step back for the struggling unit. Drafting Haden and adding Fujita should help this defense improve a bit though, it just remains to be seen how much. Overall, I think the offense is bound to move forward a bit from where it was last year, especially with Holmgren saying that Cribbs will play a larger role in offense. However, this team has no quick fix for its defense, and will probably be bottom 8 in points allowed per game again. The Browns may upset a superior team or two this season, but their tough home schedule is really going to limit what they can do this year. Ultimately, the Browns will find themselves at the bottom of the AFC North yet again as their tough schedule catches up with them, and although this team is improving I think the record takes a step back.

Projected Record: 4-12
Total Play: UNDER 5

• Pittsburgh Steelers
• Win Line: 8
• Odds to win division: +200 (2-1)

The Steelers were a huge disappointment in 2009 as they failed to even make the playoffs coming off of their Super Bowl winning year. This was not a typical Steelers football team as they threw the ball more than they ran it, and their passing game was actually 5th in the NFL in yards/pass attempt. The defense also was not the typical elite Steelers defense, finishing 17th in the NFL in points allowed per game. However, this can be attributed somewhat to injuries, as Aaron Smith and Troy Polamalou both missed the majority of the season.

2010 opens with a challenge for the Steelers as they have to play at least four games without QB Ben Roethlisberger. I expect it to be just four games, and looking at the quality of teams they play over that stretch I think they open up 2-2 or 1-3. The 2009 Steelers lived by the pass, and even if they get back to running the ball more the absence of WR Santonio Holmes will be felt on this team. Hines Ward is also getting up there in age, and given his history with hamstrings I'd be surprised if we didn't see him on the injury report and ultimately missing a game or two before the season is over. One of the biggest weaknesses for this team has always been the offensive line, and the addition of rookie Maurkice Pouncey should help solidify the unit. I still don't think we're looking at a great offense though, and the unit will probably take a slight step back from being 11th in PPG like they were last year. On defense, I have to think the squad will improve with the return of Polamalou and Smith, and should be difficult to score points on once again. I think the Steelers can make up for a lower level of play on offense with the improved play we'll see from their defense, and with a lot of their easier games coming after the return of Roethlisberger (Raiders, Bills, Panthers, Browns twice), the Steelers can salvage a winning record. I don't see this team doing any worse than 8-8, which would be a push for an over wager. Therefore, I think it's a play worth making as this team has more upside than downside.

Projected Record: 9-7
Total Play: OVER 8

2010 Predicted AFC North Standings:
Ravens: 11-5
Steelers: 9-7
Bengals: 9-7
Browns: 4-12

AFC North Plays:
Ravens OVER 9
Browns UNDER 5
Steelers OVER 9
Ravens to win division -110

Good luck to anyone who makes any plays!

AFC West Division Predictions and Win Totals

AFC West (Reading Now)
AFC North
AFC East
AFC South
NFC South
NFC West
NFC East
NFC North

Hey everyone, we're now under four months away from the kickoff of the 2010 NFL season! As many of you are aware, odds for division winners and win totals for teams have begun popping up on some online sports books, as well as in Vegas. This year, I've decided to take a stab at some of these futures bets, as you saw last week when I did my Super Bowl write up. A quick note on that, consider the Packers as a team that I like now as well, I feel like there's some value there. I could go into a whole write up but I'll spare you until I touch on them again breaking down the NFC North. To help kill some of this time until the start of the season, I'm going to do a write up for each of the next eight weeks breaking down one NFL division at a time (With a little luck, we'll know whether or not Favre is coming back by the time I get to the NFC North). I'll be covering each team's win totals, while also looking at each team's odds to win their respective division. I'll start off this week with the AFC West, as this is probably one of the easiest divisions to break down. Win totals lines are taken from the Venetian, the division odds are from sportsbook.com.

A couple final notes, since it's the first year I'm trying futures bets, don't take my word as gospel. There's no guarantee I'll be as successful at these as I am at picking games each week, but I do feel my opinion could be beneficial to you guys, so do what you will with it. Also, just because I predict a team to have a win more or less than their win line doesn't mean it'll be a play for me. So, I'll have some instances where I say no play because I'm not confident enough that things will play out as I see them. So without further ado, here's what I'm thinking for the AFC West:

• Denver Broncos
• Win line: 7
• Odds to win division: +500 (5-1)

I expect the Broncos to take a step back in a big way in 2010. This is a team that started the 2009 season 6-0, yet had a disastrous 2-8 finish and missed the playoffs. Through those first six games their defense was rock solid, #3 against the run and #4 against the pass. In their last 10 games their pass defense stayed solid at #6, however their rush defense returned to it's poor 2008 form and was ranked dead last in the NFL over that span. Combine that with their passing and rushing attack disappearing, and it's easy to see why they struggled so much to finish out the season.

In 2010, the Broncos find themselves in pretty bad shape. For starters, Brandon Marshall, a huge piece of their offense, is no longer with their team. Marshall was responsible for about 1/4 of the team's yards through the air, and about half of their touchdowns through the air as well. Although other receivers will step up, the loss will still be felt. Throw in a tough schedule, and I don't see much hope for the Broncos in 2010. 5-1 odds aren't good enough to risk betting this team to win the West, so save your money.

Projected Record: 6-10
Total Play: UNDER 7

• Kansas City Chiefs
• Win line: 6
• Odds to win divison: +600 (6-1)

The big offseason acquisition for the Chiefs was probably RB Thomas Jones. Although they got much needed help at safety with#5 draft pick Eric Berry, he certainly won't be enough to turn that defense around. The Chiefs found themselves near the bottom of the NFL against both the pass and run, ranking 27th and 29th. The brightest area for the Chiefs was running the ball in 2009, as they were 8th in the NFL in yards/rush attempt. I expect this to remain about the same in 2010, as Charles and Jones should be quite the duo at RB. However, their passing game was abysmal, ranking 29th in the NFL. With no major new pieces in place this season (No disrespect to TE Leonard Pope), one has to wonder how big of a rebound this unit can really have.

Playing the AFC South in 2010, you have to think the Jaguars really look like the only winnable game of the bunch. In division, the Chiefs should be able to take two or three games from the Raiders and Broncos, but I can't see them beating the Chargers. They could pick up a couple wins against their NFC West foes, and Cleveland and Buffalo are both teams that I can see the Chiefs beating in 2010 as well. Obviously you don't want to bet this team to win the division, even at +600, another to stay away from.

Projected Record: 6-10
Total Play: NO PLAY

• Oakland Raiders
• Win Line: 5.5
• Odds to win division: +650 (6.5-1)

I'm just going to spare you all the suspense and tell you now not to bet the Raiders to win the division. Shocker. However, things are looking up in Oakland as the JaMarcus Russell era is finally over. The Raiders were able to acquire Jason Campbell from the Redskins during the offseason, and in my opinion he should offer this team a bit of a boost on offense. The Raiders' big problem on offense is still the lack of wide receivers, as Heyward-Bey still is reported incapable of catching passes consistently. Chaz Schilens spent most of last year injured, but began to show flashes of potential towards the end of the year. It remains to be seen if he can be an impact player this coming season.

Oakland struggled on defense last year, as they were 7th worst against the pass and 8th worst against the run. 9th overall pick Rolando McClain should help patch up some of the run troubles, and with Asomugha still at Corner Back the Raiders' woes against the pass can't be too bad. This will probably still be a below average defense, but it should take a step up from where it was a year ago. The Raiders get a bit tougher of a draw than the Chiefs, as their additional two games are against the Dolphins and Steelers, which is why I can't predict them to pass up the Chiefs this season. However, I can see this team improving slightly from where it was a year ago.

Projected Record: 6-10
Total Play: NO PLAY

• San Diego Chargers
• Win Line: 10.5
• Odds to win division: -250

Like I said earlier, the Chargers are why this division is easiest to pick. Due to weak opposition and a strong offense, the Chargers are as close as you'll ever see me come to using the word "Lock" in one of my write ups. In 2009, the Chargers cruised to a 13-3 record, taking the AFC West with ease. However, this wasn't a team without flaws. For starters, their defense was 7th worst in the NFL against the run. Furthermore, their rushing offense was dead last in yards per rush attempt. Given these flaws, their 13-3 record looks all that more impressive in retrospect, and makes it a bit clearer why they lost to the Jets in the playoffs.

With the Tomlinson era having ended in San Diego, the door is opened for RB Ryan Mathews, who you have to believe will be able to do more for the Chargers than LT was able to last year. Sproles remains the #2 RB for the team, and will likely serve a similar function as last year. Mathews should help give this offense a bit more balance, and with Jackson and Gates still around, Rivers should lead an explosive passing offense again. The Chargers should do no worse than 5-1 in their division, and could easily sweep it. Six games on their schedule present potential challenges: @Colts, @Bengals, Patriots, @Texans, 49ers, Titans. Assuming they split these games and blow two games they should win, they're still an 11 win team. Looks to me like another easy AFC West title, making the -250 odds well worth a bet.

Projected Record: 11-5
Total Play: OVER 10.5

2010 Predicted AFC West Standings:
Chargers: 11-5
Broncos: 6-10
Chiefs: 6-10
Raiders: 6-10

AFC West Plays:
Broncos UNDER 7
Chargers OVER 10.5
Chargers to win division -250

Good luck to anyone who makes any plays, see you all next week!

Super Bowl XLV Betting Recommendations

With the NFL draft now completed, and the destination of most big name players determined, it seems as good a time as any to look ahead to Super Bowl XLV and consider some future bets. With 32 teams in the NFL, obviously without taking team talent into consideration you have 32-1 odds of picking the next Super Bowl champion. However, all of you are clearly smarter than that, and will be trying to find teams with a higher level of talent that present good value for the 2011 Super Bowl. The purpose of this write up is to give you all an idea of where I'm seeing value this coming season, and where I see potential traps that could suck you in. Going by the odds off of looselines.com, I'm going to make the assumption that none of you are seriously considering any of the bottom 16 teams to put your money on, leaving 16 teams to be considered as champion of Super Bowl XLV. Here are the current odds for these teams:

• Colts: +600 (6-1)
• Patriots: +800 (8-1)
• Saints: +800 (8-1)
• Chargers: +800 (8-1)
• Cowboys: +1000 (10-1)
• Vikings: +1000 (10-1)
• Steelers: +1000 (10-1)
• Packers: +1100 (11-1)
• Eagles: +1200 (12-1)
• Ravens: +1500 (15-1)
• Jets: +1600 (16-1)
• Falcons: +1800 (18-1)
• Giants: +2000 (20-1)
• Bengals: +2500 (25-1)

Obviously, some of these bets present more value than others. Here are some of my top choices for this coming season, as well as some teams that I believe you should stay away from:

Top Picks:

• New York Jets

This is probably one of my favorite bets for the coming season. At 16-1, this pick offers a ton of value, and the only complaint one can really find with the team is that Sanchez is still a bit of an unproven Quarterback. Shonn Greene is an outstanding up and coming running back, and the veteran presence of Tomlinson will be a big help to this offense, even if he does turn out to be washed up and used sparingly. Also, the Jets have added Santonio Holmes to the team, and although he will miss the first four games of the season he'll be around when it counts at the end of the year, giving Sanchez another weapon in a squad of WRs that could already be considered deep. Meanwhile, this Jets' defense, which was #1 in yds/pass att. allowed last year, has added CB Antonio Cromartie to the squad. This pass defense will be incredibly tough against teams next year, and with the addition of Jason Taylor as well, this team will be very tough to score against. I believe that we'll see an improved Sanchez in 2010/2011, and with what will probably be the best defense in the NFL this team will have a real chance at winning it all in February.

• Baltimore Ravens

We saw flashes of an elite offense out of the Ravens last year, although towards the end of the season Flacco struggled with a hip injury and the offense sputtered when it mattered. One of the biggest complaints against the Ravens offense was their lack of a wide receiver, and they certainly took care of that problem by acquiring WR Anquan Boldin this off-season. The threat of Boldin at WR should help open things up for already dangerous RB Ray Rice, who last season showed his versatility by racking up over 2000 total yards. Although the defense is aging, they did their best to address their lack of depth at CB during the draft, and I think this will be an above average defense against the pass next year, as well as continuing to be a top 5 unit against the run (they were #1 in yards allowed/rush attempt last season). With a strong defense and what could easily be a powerful offense, you have to see a lot of value in the 15-1 odds offered for betting the Ravens right now.

• Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys had a disappointing end to the 2009/2010 season as they failed to show up against the Vikings in the playoffs and wound up getting blown out. However, the talent of this team can't be denied. Dallas was above average against the pass and run on defense last season, and certainly has all of the pieces in place to be again in 2010/2011. On offense, they were #2 in yards/rush attempt, and with Felix Jones taking over this season as the featured back, you have to think that they have a good chance at becoming the #1 team running the ball overall. Even if Jones can't stay healthy, they have Marion Barber to back him up, who certainly is capable of carrying the load if need-be. The offense also offers a great deal of balance, as last season they were #6 in yards/pass attempt. With the acquisition of WR Dez Bryant in the draft, the Cowboys have added yet another weapon to what was already a powerful offense. The Cowboys struggled last season converting their yards into points at times, and often these are the teams that we see put it together the following season and make a deep run. I'll gladly take 10-1 odds on this team to win it all, as they could easily be one of the most talented teams in the NFL in 2010.


I believe that these teams stand above the other teams in the field, as they appear on paper to be the most complete squads in the NFL. However, there are currently many other teams that are being talked up as possible champions in 2010. Here are a few teams that I feel are being overvalued, and are likely to disappoint those who decide to bet on them:

Teams to Avoid:

• New Orleans Saints

As many of you know, the Saints are probably my favorite team in the NFL. I'm a big fan of Brees and the offense that he runs, however I don't believe the pieces are in place for the Saints to repeat in 2010. For starters, I'll readily admit that they probably should have lost to the Vikings in the playoffs last year. The Saints' flaw all season was their inability to stop the run, and unfortunately I haven't seen them do a ton this season to fix that problem. With Fujita no longer on the squad, and Sharper possibly leaving, I see a weakening defense that won't be able to generate the incredible number of turnovers that they did last season. The offense will continue to put points on the board as always, but I believe we'll see a team closer to the 2008/2009 squad than last year's. I think this team makes the playoffs, however finds themselves eliminated before the Superbowl. 8-1 odds isn't a good enough price to pick this team, so stay away.

• Philadelphia Eagles

One of the main reasons I have to include the Eagles here is because of the ridiculously low odds offered for picking them. QB play is becoming increasingly important in today's NFL, and with an unproven QB at the helm I'm not sure why anyone would want to lay 12-1 odds on this team to win it all. I personally am not even convinced that this team makes the playoffs, and if they do they'll more than likely be a wild card team and have to fight an uphill battle on the road in the playoffs. This offense will take a step back and the defense will continue to be right around average, maybe slightly better. That's not the formula for a Super Bowl team, so save your money and stay away from this pick.

• Pittsburgh Steelers

Again, this is a team who's odds are way too low. I've seen them in other locations at as high as 20-1, but even at that price I wouldn't take them. First of all, Roethlisberger is suspended for 6 games, although that could get reduced to a 4 game suspension if he behaves himself. Even if he only missed four games, the Steelers open 2010 with a pretty tough slate of games. The Falcons, Titans, and Ravens are all teams that could very easily beat them without their #1 QB, and if faced with a 1-3 start I don't think that they can come back from that and make the playoffs. Last year this team thrived on the pass with a mediocre rushing game, and they really haven't done much so far to improve that phase of their game. Also, with losing Holmes due to trade, and now with Sweed possibly missing the entire season with an Achilles Tendon injury, how can this pass game be as good as it was last year? Getting their QB back still won't solve this team's problems, and I'm pretty confident in saying that this won't be a playoff squad, let-alone a Super Bowl champion.


That's about it for teams I have strong opinions again, remember that teams I like are simply teams that I feel offer value. Squads I didn't mention in write-ups I feel are priced about right, although I will note that I'm not a huge fan of the Colts at 6-1, I feel like you need odds a little higher than that for them. These recommendations won't count towards my record in 2010, however I look forward to looking back at them in February and seeing how they did. It's my first year trying to pick futures, so don't take my word as gospel and throw down a bunch of money on teams I recommended. As usual, make the final decision yourself and use common sense, and as always exercise good money management! I'll have a couple more off-season write-ups for team win totals and division odds before we kick off the 2010 NFL season, until then good luck to everyone betting NFL Futures or any other sports!

-Kroy