Week 16 Saturday Night Football

For those of you who bet the over in the Thursday night game, I congratulate you for finding the one bet that was worth putting your money on. That is why I stayed away from the game, I felt it could easily go one way or the other for high or low scoring and I felt like it was a pretty well set spread. As you could see, my lean towards Jacksonville didn't quite pan out, but since it wasn't a recommended play I have no regrets.

For Saturday's showdown between Dallas and Baltimore, I see a little more value than in Thursday night's game, but I'm still not wild about it. My programs seem to like the over more than anything, but with the way the defenses have been playing lately I can't feel confident enough in this play to recommend it. However, I'm going to go ahead and take a play ATS that I think has a pretty good chance of winning. I like Baltimore +4 in this game, as do my programs. When everything is said and done, I can easily see Baltimore winning this game outright, and if they were to lose I can't see it being by more than a field goal.

The reason I'm this confident in Baltimore is because of their defense compared to the Cowboys. Despite the Dallas improvement on D, they still are nowhere near the level Baltimore has reached. Flacco still isn't getting enough respect on offense (The Baltimore passing offense averages exactly what their opponent defenses have allowed), and Romo isn't exactly the best at taking care of the ball. Marion Barber probably will play about the same role he did against the Giants, and I doubt he will be anywhere near effective, especially against the Raven's stout defense. Even if Choice gets all the carries, he hasn't faced a defense nearly this good. I think it comes down to turnovers in the end, and Baltimore will do a better job of taking care of the ball than Dallas.

Good luck to anyone who decides to bet on the game tomorrow!