The end of the NFL regular season is nearly upon us, so I'm looking to end it with a bang. I've narrowed down my plays to 7 selections that I feel like have a great chance of hitting on Sunday. I've done the best I can to factor weather in to all of these plays, so I feel pretty confident I have that angle covered. Here are the plays I'm liking for this week:
ATS:I know Arizona has been terrible out east so far this year but I think this line is just ridiculous. I continue to think the Patriots are badly over rated, and by the numbers Arizona should win this game outright. I won't go as far as to predict this since they have been horrible on the road, but I can't see them losing this game by more than 7. With the weather supposed to be sloppy, both teams will probably have a more difficult time than usual putting points on the board, making this a close final score.
Another game I think the dog could win outright, but Buffalo should at least keep it close. Lynch will run through the terrible Denver defense, and Buffalo is coming off a near win against the Jets despite a terrible game by Losman. Denver meanwhile, was just destroyed by Carolina, and if San Diego loses their noon game Denver will know they have clinched the division and probably will experience a bit of a letdown. All in all, I think Buffalo is a great play here.
Brees is gunning for Marino's yardage record, and he's going against the worst defense in the NFL. The Lions played one of their best games of the year against Indy last week, but still found themselves as losers by 10 points. Although the Saints aren't usually great on the road, Detroit isn't exactly a hostile environment, and any Saints fan can get tickets to the game since the Lions aren't selling out. Plus, in a dome, the Saints should feel right at home and playing in a familiar environment. I think the Saints at worst win by 10, but probably more.
This line has fallen from -5 since earlier this week, if it continues to drop do your best to get it at 3, maybe even consider buying the half point. I'm probably most nervous about this pick given the way the Jets have been playing lately and played out west at Oakland earlier this year; but I have enough confidence that they'll show up to play since they are in such a tough fight for a playoff spot. I can see the Jets winning this by a touchdown, conditions in Seattle aren't supposed to be great, so if the teams choose to keep it on the ground more I think that significantly favors the Jets.
Totals:I said earlier I can see the Saints putting up 35 in this game, well I think Detroit will get their fair share of points as well. I think Detroit scores at least 17, so with that in mind all New Orleans has to do is live up to my expectations offensively.
Both of these defenses have been playing pretty well lately, and Frank Gore may be absent from the 49ers offense again. Even if he is back, I don't expect him to be playing at his highest level. I think winner of this game will score 20 points, keeping the total under 41.5.
- Browns Bengals Under 31.5
Interestingly enough, my program predicted this game to be a 14-10 type game, and that was without factoring in the weather. With conditions set to be sloppy for this matchup, and two backup quarterbacks running the offense, this seems like a pretty safe bet to go under in my opinion.
That's all I have for this week, I probably won't have a Monday Night play but I'll send out an email or post an update regarding that Monday afternoon. Good luck to everyone this week!
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