With the NFL draft now completed, and the destination of most big name players determined, it seems as good a time as any to look ahead to Super Bowl XLV and consider some future bets. With 32 teams in the NFL, obviously without taking team talent into consideration you have 32-1 odds of picking the next Super Bowl champion. However, all of you are clearly smarter than that, and will be trying to find teams with a higher level of talent that present good value for the 2011 Super Bowl. The purpose of this write up is to give you all an idea of where I'm seeing value this coming season, and where I see potential traps that could suck you in. Going by the odds off of looselines.com, I'm going to make the assumption that none of you are seriously considering any of the bottom 16 teams to put your money on, leaving 16 teams to be considered as champion of Super Bowl XLV. Here are the current odds for these teams:
- Colts: +600 (6-1)
- Patriots: +800 (8-1)
- Saints: +800 (8-1)
- Chargers: +800 (8-1)
- Cowboys: +1000 (10-1)
- Vikings: +1000 (10-1)
- Steelers: +1000 (10-1)
- Packers: +1100 (11-1)
- Eagles: +1200 (12-1)
- Ravens: +1500 (15-1)
- Jets: +1600 (16-1)
- Falcons: +1800 (18-1)
- Giants: +2000 (20-1)
- Bengals: +2500 (25-1)
Obviously, some of these bets present more value than others. Here are some of my top choices for this coming season, as well as some teams that I believe you should stay away from:
Top Picks: This is probably one of my favorite bets for the coming season. At 16-1, this pick offers a ton of value, and the only complaint one can really find with the team is that Sanchez is still a bit of an unproven Quarterback. Shonn Greene is an outstanding up and coming running back, and the veteran presence of Tomlinson will be a big help to this offense, even if he does turn out to be washed up and used sparingly. Also, the Jets have added Santonio Holmes to the team, and although he will miss the first four games of the season he'll be around when it counts at the end of the year, giving Sanchez another weapon in a squad of WRs that could already be considered deep. Meanwhile, this Jets' defense, which was #1 in yds/pass att. allowed last year, has added CB Antonio Cromartie to the squad. This pass defense will be incredibly tough against teams next year, and with the addition of Jason Taylor as well, this team will be very tough to score against. I believe that we'll see an improved Sanchez in 2010/2011, and with what will probably be the best defense in the NFL this team will have a real chance at winning it all in February.
We saw flashes of an elite offense out of the Ravens last year, although towards the end of the season Flacco struggled with a hip injury and the offense sputtered when it mattered. One of the biggest complaints against the Ravens offense was their lack of a wide receiver, and they certainly took care of that problem by acquiring WR Anquan Boldin this off-season. The threat of Boldin at WR should help open things up for already dangerous RB Ray Rice, who last season showed his versatility by racking up over 2000 total yards. Although the defense is aging, they did their best to address their lack of depth at CB during the draft, and I think this will be an above average defense against the pass next year, as well as continuing to be a top 5 unit against the run (they were #1 in yards allowed/rush attempt last season). With a strong defense and what could easily be a powerful offense, you have to see a lot of value in the 15-1 odds offered for betting the Ravens right now.
The Cowboys had a disappointing end to the 2009/2010 season as they failed to show up against the Vikings in the playoffs and wound up getting blown out. However, the talent of this team can't be denied. Dallas was above average against the pass and run on defense last season, and certainly has all of the pieces in place to be again in 2010/2011. On offense, they were #2 in yards/rush attempt, and with Felix Jones taking over this season as the featured back, you have to think that they have a good chance at becoming the #1 team running the ball overall. Even if Jones can't stay healthy, they have Marion Barber to back him up, who certainly is capable of carrying the load if need-be. The offense also offers a great deal of balance, as last season they were #6 in yards/pass attempt. With the acquisition of WR Dez Bryant in the draft, the Cowboys have added yet another weapon to what was already a powerful offense. The Cowboys struggled last season converting their yards into points at times, and often these are the teams that we see put it together the following season and make a deep run. I'll gladly take 10-1 odds on this team to win it all, as they could easily be one of the most talented teams in the NFL in 2010.
I believe that these teams stand above the other teams in the field, as they appear on paper to be the most complete squads in the NFL. However, there are currently many other teams that are being talked up as possible champions in 2010. Here are a few teams that I feel are being overvalued, and are likely to disappoint those who decide to bet on them:
Teams to Avoid: As many of you know, the Saints are probably my favorite team in the NFL. I'm a big fan of Brees and the offense that he runs, however I don't believe the pieces are in place for the Saints to repeat in 2010. For starters, I'll readily admit that they probably should have lost to the Vikings in the playoffs last year. The Saints' flaw all season was their inability to stop the run, and unfortunately I haven't seen them do a ton this season to fix that problem. With Fujita no longer on the squad, and Sharper possibly leaving, I see a weakening defense that won't be able to generate the incredible number of turnovers that they did last season. The offense will continue to put points on the board as always, but I believe we'll see a team closer to the 2008/2009 squad than last year's. I think this team makes the playoffs, however finds themselves eliminated before the Superbowl. 8-1 odds isn't a good enough price to pick this team, so stay away.
One of the main reasons I have to include the Eagles here is because of the ridiculously low odds offered for picking them. QB play is becoming increasingly important in today's NFL, and with an unproven QB at the helm I'm not sure why anyone would want to lay 12-1 odds on this team to win it all. I personally am not even convinced that this team makes the playoffs, and if they do they'll more than likely be a wild card team and have to fight an uphill battle on the road in the playoffs. This offense will take a step back and the defense will continue to be right around average, maybe slightly better. That's not the formula for a Super Bowl team, so save your money and stay away from this pick.
Again, this is a team who's odds are way too low. I've seen them in other locations at as high as 20-1, but even at that price I wouldn't take them. First of all, Roethlisberger is suspended for 6 games, although that could get reduced to a 4 game suspension if he behaves himself. Even if he only missed four games, the Steelers open 2010 with a pretty tough slate of games. The Falcons, Titans, and Ravens are all teams that could very easily beat them without their #1 QB, and if faced with a 1-3 start I don't think that they can come back from that and make the playoffs. Last year this team thrived on the pass with a mediocre rushing game, and they really haven't done much so far to improve that phase of their game. Also, with losing Holmes due to trade, and now with Sweed possibly missing the entire season with an Achilles Tendon injury, how can this pass game be as good as it was last year? Getting their QB back still won't solve this team's problems, and I'm pretty confident in saying that this won't be a playoff squad, let-alone a Super Bowl champion.
That's about it for teams I have strong opinions again, remember that teams I like are simply teams that I feel offer value. Squads I didn't mention in write-ups I feel are priced about right, although I will note that I'm not a huge fan of the Colts at 6-1, I feel like you need odds a little higher than that for them. These recommendations won't count towards my record in 2010, however I look forward to looking back at them in February and seeing how they did. It's my first year trying to pick futures, so don't take my word as gospel and throw down a bunch of money on teams I recommended. As usual, make the final decision yourself and use common sense, and as always exercise good money management! I'll have a couple more off-season write-ups for team win totals and division odds before we kick off the 2010 NFL season, until then good luck to everyone betting NFL Futures or any other sports!
-Kroy
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