AFC East Division Predictions and Win Totals

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We're on to Part 3 of our 8 part installment of breaking down each division for the 2010 season. As usual, win lines come from the Venetian and odds for winning the division come from sportsbook.com. This week brings us to an interesting division that should be much improved from last year, the AFC East. I believe this division may be a little more clear cut than some people think though. Here's how I see the East playing out:

• Buffalo Bills
• Win Line: 5.5
• Odds to win division: +2000 (20-1)
  

I think it's safe to declare the Bills dead before their season even starts. Cursed by a brutal schedule and three teams in their division that are better than them, it's hard to see how the Bills can manage a .500 record, let alone a division win. Trent Edwards remains this team's starting QB, despite having just 24 tds to 25 ints over the course of his career. Normally I'm an optimist when it comes to young quarterbacks improving as they age, however Edwards has nobody besides Lee Evans to throw the ball to now that Terrell Owens is gone. Defenses have shown in the past that they can shut Evans down, and last time he was #1 receiver on the team he only managed to score three touchdowns. The running back situation is a bit confusing right now as Marshawn Lynch is still on the team, however he's listed last on the depth chart and I assume he'll be traded before the start of the season. That leaves Fred Jackson and CJ Spiller to compete for playing time, and although I believe the presence of Spiller will help bring up the Bills' rushing numbers slightly, I doubt it'll be a dramatic improvement. With McGee still at CB the Bills should still be decent against the pass, but I expect that their #3 pass defense in yards/pass attempt will take a step back as they have big concerns at strong safety. A 6-10 team last season, I see the Bills as a team that has taken a very small step back from where they were last year. Combined with a much tougher division this year (I expect a 1-5 division record at best) and a much tougher schedule (facing the NFC North and AFC North), I see the Bills posting a dismal record and ending the year in the bottom of the AFC East.

Projected Record: 4-12
Total Play: UNDER 5.5

• Miami Dolphins
  
• Win Line: 8
• Odds to win division: +300 (3-1)
  

The 2009 Miami Dolphins struggled to a 7-9 record last season, although they were 7-7 under QB Chad Henne. The Dolphins continued to maintain their reputation as a run first team (5th most rush attempts per game in the NFL), and managed to be effective as well as they ranked 10th in yards/rush attempt. The passing game left something to be desired, 23rd in the NFL in yards/pass attempt, however they were a very poor defensive unit which was a big reason that they struggled. They allowed the 8th most PPG in the NFL, and although they were only slightly below average against the run, they ranked 28th in the NFL against the pass.

As far as addressing weaknesses goes, the acquisition of WR Brandon Marshall was a great start to fixing the passing game for the Dolphins as he's currently one of the best receivers in the game. With Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams returning at RB, and Marshall now joining this offense, the Dolphins should improve upon the #23 ranking in PPG last season. The problem I see for the Dolphins in 2010 is that it looks like their defense has taken a step back from 2009, a big issue considering it's struggles noted above. They've lost Joey Porter and Jason Taylor, raising some questions as to who will step up at the Linebacker position this season for them. This duo accounted for 15.5 of the team's 44 sacks last season, and I have a hard time believing that their absence won't be felt. In their secondary, the Dolphins really haven't added any new guys, so how does this pass defense see a dramatic improvement? In the end I see the defense being too much of a liability for this team, and although the offense should improve the Dolphins are in for a mediocre 2010. Save your money and stay away from picking them to win the division, as 3-1 odds offer no value whatsoever.

Projected Record: 8-8
Total Play: NO PLAY

• New England Patriots
  
• Win Line: 9.5
• Odds to win division: +125 (1.25-1)
  

The Patriots were one of the more inconsistent teams in the league in 2009, winning the AFC East with a 10-6 record before getting blown out in round 1 of the playoffs. There's no doubt injuries hurt this team down the stretch, but if you look at their entire regular season their best win of the season was quite possibly against the Ravens in Week 4, and in that game one of the Ravens' wide receivers dropped the would be winning touchdown. The Patriots beat a lot of teams that really just weren't that good, and struggled to get the job done against the better teams in the league. Of course, a big part of this can be attributed to Brady coming off of his knee injury and struggling to find consistency all year. But have the Pats made the right moves for 2010 to keep their hold on top of the AFC East?

Obviously, Brady should be a bit more comfortable this year another year removed from his knee injury. He looked like two different Quarterbacks at times last year, and we should see more of the Tom Brady we remember from 2007 this coming year. However, Brady will have a tough time as he'll likely be without Welker for the beginning of the season, and although the Patriots added Holt at WR, I'm not sure he has much left to offer in the NFL. The Patriots' rushing game was abysmal last season, ranking 26th in the NFL in yards per rush attempt, and they've done absolutely nothing to fix that this season. The Patriots also ranked poorly in pass and rush defense, however they managed to keep the damage minimal as they ranked 6th in the NFL in points allowed per game. This season, the loss of Jarvis Green could hurt this unit and I expect the Patriots to allow a few more points per game than last year, while defensive yardage allowed stays about the same. When it comes down to it, the Patriots are a team that wins through the air. With that being what the Jets specialize in shutting down, a sweep of the Patriots this season would not surprise me at all (Welker was the key piece in last year's win for the Pats, who knows what kind of shape he'll be in after he returns). Combined with a much tougher schedule than last year, I think the Patriots come up short this season in the AFC East.

Projected Record: 9-7
Total Play: NO PLAY

• New York Jets
  
• Win Line: 9.5
• Odds to win division: +140 (1.4-1)

In 2009, the Jets were pretty much handed a playoff spot as the Colts and Bengals both mailed in games against them, leaving them with a 9-7 record. The team was phenomenal on defense, as they were the #1 passing defense and #5 rushing defense in the league, and on offense they were the #6 rushing offense. The biggest issue for the Jets was the passing game, as rookie QB Mark Sanchez had a very ugly stretch of games in the middle of the season in which he threw most of his interceptions. Ultimately the Jets lost in the AFC Championship game to the Colts, as Peyton Manning proved too much for the defense to overcome.

The Jets enter the 2010 season with lofty expectations, deservedly so in my opinion. The pass defense looks to have improved, hard to believe given their #1 ranking last year, but the addition of Cromartie and Wilson give the Jets three amazing cornerbacks. Not only that, but the defense has also added Jason Taylor from the Dolphins, and will have Kris Jenkins returning from an ACL tear last season. This will be an elite unit once again, and probably the best defense in the league. The questions the Jets have to answer are on offense. You have to think that Sanchez will improve from last year, he showed flashes of potential throughout the season and put a few great games together. He also gave a few away by failing to take care of the ball and struggling with accuracy, but I believe he will have less games like that this season. Santonio Holmes will give him one more weapon to work with (after his suspension ends), and the Jets now have one of the deeper WR corps in the NFL with Edwards and Cotchery behind him. There are also some questions about whether or not the running game can be as effective without Thomas Jones, but from what I saw last year Greene was a much more effective back and Tomlinson should be able to help take some of the load off. Although Tomlinson may not be the great RB he once was, he will certainly do more in New York than he did behind the awful offensive line he had to play behind last year. The Jets are the class of the AFC East and possibly the NFL, although there is always the possibility of a team like the Colts that could topple them because they have so many weapons on offense. However, not crossing the Colts in the regular season and with a lot of teams on their schedule that rely heavily on the pass, I think the Jets can get off to a hot start and cruise to the AFC East title.

Projected Record: 11-5
Total Play: OVER 9.5

One final note, betting both the Jets and the Patriots to win the East will very likely result in a small profit, as I feel like you can count out the Dolphins and Bills. With the odds at +140 and +125, a bet on each would be the safest approach. I'm sticking with my gut and going with the Jets however, so here's a recap of all my picks this writeup:

Jets OVER 9.5
Bills UNDER 5.5
Jets to win AFC East +140

Good luck to anyone who makes any plays!