AFC North Division Predictions and Win Totals

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Last week we took a look at the AFC West (linked above), this week we'll move on to the more competitive AFC North. Like last week, win totals lines are taken from the Venetian, the division odds are from sportsbook.com. Again, I've never tested my ability to pick futures before, and there are many factors along the way that could affect how this all plays out such as injuries or trades. So as usual if anyone chooses to bet on these don't go nuts. With that said, here's what I'm seeing for the AFC North:

• Baltimore Ravens
• Win Line: 9
• Odds to win division: -110

The Ravens had a very up and down 2009 season, finishing out the year with a 9-7 record and losing in the second round of the playoffs. Early in the year, Flacco was playing well, and the Ravens' offense looked like a top 10 unit. However, his play declined down the stretch, although a good deal of the decline I believe can be attributed to a hip/quad injury he was playing through.

People who don't believe in the 2010 Ravens mostly cite Flacco as their reason, as there isn't a great deal of belief he can get the job done. Personally, I believe the Ravens have all the pieces in place to be an elite team in 2010. For starters, they significantly upgraded their wide receivers this offseason, as they added WRs Anquan Boldin and Donte Stallworth. Boldin is already one of the best WRs in the game, and Stallworth offers this team a big play threat as he is one of the faster receivers in the league. RB Ray Rice, the brightest spot in the Ravens' offense last season, will still be out there as well. Rice ran for 5.3 yards per carry, and put up over 200o yards of total offense for the Ravens, over 700 of them receiving. Flacco will enter the year healthy and I believe playing at a high level once again, and with four great weapons (Boldin, Mason, Stallworth, Rice) I believe this is going to be a very explosive offense. On defense, the additions of Mount Cody and Sergio Kindle should keep this rush defense as nasty as ever, it was #1 in the NFL last year and should be in that neighborhood again. The weakness at CB still exists, but they've found ways to deal with it in the past and should have more than enough offense to make up for it this year. The Ravens look best to win the division, and should be set for a deep run in the playoffs.

Projected Record: 11-5
Total Play: OVER 9

• Cincinnati Bengals
• Win Line: 8
• Odds to win division: +350 (3.5-1)

The 2009 Bengals surprised a lot of people, winning the AFC North with a 10-6 record before losing in the first round of the playoffs to the Jets. A big part of the Bengals' success was their much-improved defense, which was 7th against the pass and 6th against the run. It also seemed though that the Bengals had a lot of breaks go their way (aside from the Broncos' Week 1 miracle victory). The Bengals had down to the wire wins against all of their division foes at least once, and wound up sweeping the tough division.

Despite winning the North last season, I'm fairly certain that the Bengals fall short this year by a couple of games. Don't get me wrong, I do believe the Bengals have improved this year. They've added a much needed second wide receiver Antonio Bryant, and also Jermaine Gresham to help at the tight end position. This should help open things up for RB Cedric Benson, so I expect that he has another quality season. All of this put together should bring this offense up from its below average numbers last year, although it remains to be seen how significant the increase is. The problem I see for the Bengals is their tough schedule, it's the 4th toughest schedule this coming year in terms of teams' winning percentages last year. The Bengals draw the Chargers and Colts for their extra two games, while the Ravens draw the softer opponents the Broncos and Texans. I also don't think it's likely at all that the Bengals sweep the division again, I anticipate a 4-2 division record at best. With the tough AFC East and NFC South as their out of division opponents this season, I see the Bengals winning anywhere from seven to nine games. Given their improvements I'll give them the high end of that projection for now, but I'm not nearly confident enough in it to bet their win total as I see too much downside.

Projected Record: 9-7
Total Play: NO PLAY

• Cleveland Browns
• Win Line: 5
• Odds to win division: +1200 (12-1)

2009 was a year to forget for the Browns, as they finished last in the North with a 5-11 record. In all honesty, the team wasn't even as good as the record indicated. This team was dismal on both sides of the ball, throwing for a league worst 4.4 yards/pass attempt, and ranking 29th in both rush defense and pass defense. Their brightest spot on offense was the rushing game, and even that was below average as the team ranked 19th in yards/carry. Joshua Cribbs did everything he could to help this team in the return game and on offense, but he wasn't able to win many games by himself.

The 2010 Browns find themselves with new pieces in place in key areas in 2010. They've finally found a new quarterback, as they picked up veteran Jake Delhomme this offseason. However, it remains to be seen if Delhomme can provide them the answer they're looking for. This is a quarterback who threw 8 touchdowns to 18 interceptions in 11 games, and one could argue that he had better receivers in Carolina than he does now. Rookie Colt McCoy could find himself playing before the end of the year, but I expect he'll struggle as almost every first year rookie QB does. RB Jerome Harrison finished the year out strong with 561 yards rushing in the last three games, however he did so against three of the worst rush defenses in the NFL. I'm not sure if I'm buying into him yet as a game changing running back, or if he can help keep the chains moving for this dismal offense. On the defensive side of the ball, Outside Linebacker Matt Roth is looking for a trade as the Browns aren't offering him the long term contract he's looking for, and if he were to leave this defense it certainly would be another step back for the struggling unit. Drafting Haden and adding Fujita should help this defense improve a bit though, it just remains to be seen how much. Overall, I think the offense is bound to move forward a bit from where it was last year, especially with Holmgren saying that Cribbs will play a larger role in offense. However, this team has no quick fix for its defense, and will probably be bottom 8 in points allowed per game again. The Browns may upset a superior team or two this season, but their tough home schedule is really going to limit what they can do this year. Ultimately, the Browns will find themselves at the bottom of the AFC North yet again as their tough schedule catches up with them, and although this team is improving I think the record takes a step back.

Projected Record: 4-12
Total Play: UNDER 5

• Pittsburgh Steelers
• Win Line: 8
• Odds to win division: +200 (2-1)

The Steelers were a huge disappointment in 2009 as they failed to even make the playoffs coming off of their Super Bowl winning year. This was not a typical Steelers football team as they threw the ball more than they ran it, and their passing game was actually 5th in the NFL in yards/pass attempt. The defense also was not the typical elite Steelers defense, finishing 17th in the NFL in points allowed per game. However, this can be attributed somewhat to injuries, as Aaron Smith and Troy Polamalou both missed the majority of the season.

2010 opens with a challenge for the Steelers as they have to play at least four games without QB Ben Roethlisberger. I expect it to be just four games, and looking at the quality of teams they play over that stretch I think they open up 2-2 or 1-3. The 2009 Steelers lived by the pass, and even if they get back to running the ball more the absence of WR Santonio Holmes will be felt on this team. Hines Ward is also getting up there in age, and given his history with hamstrings I'd be surprised if we didn't see him on the injury report and ultimately missing a game or two before the season is over. One of the biggest weaknesses for this team has always been the offensive line, and the addition of rookie Maurkice Pouncey should help solidify the unit. I still don't think we're looking at a great offense though, and the unit will probably take a slight step back from being 11th in PPG like they were last year. On defense, I have to think the squad will improve with the return of Polamalou and Smith, and should be difficult to score points on once again. I think the Steelers can make up for a lower level of play on offense with the improved play we'll see from their defense, and with a lot of their easier games coming after the return of Roethlisberger (Raiders, Bills, Panthers, Browns twice), the Steelers can salvage a winning record. I don't see this team doing any worse than 8-8, which would be a push for an over wager. Therefore, I think it's a play worth making as this team has more upside than downside.

Projected Record: 9-7
Total Play: OVER 8

2010 Predicted AFC North Standings:
Ravens: 11-5
Steelers: 9-7
Bengals: 9-7
Browns: 4-12

AFC North Plays:
Ravens OVER 9
Browns UNDER 5
Steelers OVER 9
Ravens to win division -110

Good luck to anyone who makes any plays!