I've decided on releasing two Thursday Night plays for the first time this season, but with good reason. I'm very confident in both of these plays, as long as the Jets show up these should win no problem. Here's what I'm thinking for tonight:

• New York Jets -3
• Jets/Bills UNDER 37

To begin, let's note that this game is in Canada and not Buffalo's true home stadium. The past two weeks, the Bills have looked like a different team as Fitzpatrick has thrown for 583 yards (291.5 y/gm). However, there are some factors that need to be taken into account. First of all, these games have been against the Jaguars and Dolphins, the 3rd and 9th worst pass defenses in the NFL. Secondly, this week the Bills find themselves against the Jets, the #1 ranked pass defense in the NFL. Over those two games, Terrell Owens has experienced a resurgence, as he has accounted for 293 yards receiving, over half of Fitzpatrick's total yardage. This week, he faces Revis, who we've all become familiar with as the best corner in the NFL. After shutting down Steve Smith last week (1 catch for 5 yards), Revis should have no problem with the slower Owens. Sure Owens has size, but so did Randy Moss and Andre Johnson, and Revis took care of them as well. Not to mention that in their first meeting Revis held him to just 13 yards receiving. When you also consider that Buffalo's rush offense is 19th in the NFL in yards per rush attempt, and that they're going against the 6th best rushing defense in the NFL, I just can't see how this offense will move the ball at all. Their best offense might be their defense, as they'll have to hope that Mark Sanchez turns the ball over multiple times as he did in their first meeting, which is always a possibility. I don't think that this will happen though, as the Jets will take advantage of the fact that the Bills have the 2nd worst rushing defense in the NFL, and keep the majority of their offense to the ground. I think the Jets will have some time consuming drives, while the Bills will simply not get many opportunities and struggle when they do. I'd be shocked if the Bills topped 13 points in this one, as the Jets might even flirt with shutting their offense out. I see the Jets winning comfortably, along the lines of 20-6.

Good luck to those of you who decide to make a wager tonight!

Stats and Information Through 12 Weeks

It's been a hell of a first 12 weeks, with my plays sitting at 35-17 ATS (67.3%). It's hard to believe we're so far into the season already, and while my system has not been performing great or producing as many plays as last year, we've still found ways to succeed. In just nine weeks, we'll be on to Superbowl Sunday, which hopefully will be closing out a very successful year. I'm hoping to have sent out about 90 plays by then and still be hitting in the neighborhood of 67%, but as usual, I will not force anything.

Allow me to update you on how my system is doing. Since it kicked off Week 8 until now, it has produced a record of merely 20-16 ATS (55.56%). This isn't even close to where it was at this point last year, and I've been taking some in depth looks to try to figure out where the problem is. Luckily, I think I've found the answer. A key stat that my system uses is yards per point scored. I have data going back to 2004 on this system, and on the teams each year. From 2004-2008, there were a grand total of 4 teams that had a mark of 20 yards per point scored or worse. At this point this season, we currently have 5 teams that rank this poorly, including the Rams, who have the worst offensive efficiency my system has ever seen. I have to believe that this is a large part in what is throwing off my system, so although I will continue to look at it this season and let it weigh into my decisions, I will certainly keep more of a level head about it capabilities. In future years, I expect teams' offenses to return to the norm and for my system to become a valuable asset again.

As you've seen from a couple previous emails of mine, I like to see how my plays compare to the "Experts" tracked by the Oklahoma Sports Monitor. Unfortunately these people charge hefty sums of money for their plays, while the vast majority of them fail to produce records that show they deserve it. Not only that, but the services that top the chart year to year are often one hit wonders, who you never see ranked that high again. If I were being tracked this year (The $350 charge to be tracked by them is all that is stopping me), I'd currently be ranked 3rd in winning percentage, 2nd in Rate of Return, and 1st in Net Wins. If you were to compare me only to services that have released over 50 plays so far this year, I'd be ranked 1st in every category. I take a great deal of pride in this fact, especially given the fact that I offer all of these plays for free.

This leads me to my final point - donations. I've never been one to go out of my way to ask for money, however over the past year and a half I have been asked a few times if I accept donations. I just wanted to make everyone aware that I now have a link up on my site that will take you to a paypal page that will accept donations on my behalf the remainder of this season. If you would like to donate by a different method, feel free to email me and we could figure something out. This is by no means a requirement, it is completely your decision depending on how much I've helped you profit this season and if you're feeling generous. You will not stop receiving plays or anything like that if you choose not to donate. If any of you feel like donating, thank you in advance, it is greatly appreciated!

Moving on from that, I'd just like to let you all know that I may have a play or even two for tomorrow night's game, I'm going to do a bit more research before making my final decision. I'll send out an email in the afternoon informing everyone if there is a play. Good luck to everyone the remainder of the season!