Week 4 Sunday Plays

I know some of you will be disappointed that this isn't another week with 6 or 7 plays, but I really think that this is a tight set of lines this week and good value is hard to find. There will be weeks like this, but not nearly as many as weeks where I see a lot more out there that I like. Once my system is up and running, we'll have plenty to choose from. Here's what I'm liking this week:

• 49ers/Rams UNDER 37.5

This play caught my eye from the beginning of the week and never left my radar. The Rams actually showed some life last weekend on offense with Boller at the helm, but it was against a suspect Packers defense that is middle of the pack in both passing and rushing yards per attempt. The 49ers defense this week should return the Rams to the familiar single digit scoring that they saw their first two games of the year. Steven Jackson is the focal point of this Rams' offense, and with the 49ers allowing only 3 ypc this season and containing AP fairly well last week, it isn't looking like Jackson will find much room to run come Sunday. If forced into turning to the pass, the Rams already find themselves in trouble as they are the third worst team in the league in yards per pass attempt. The 49ers are 9th in the league against the pass, so again, Boller shouldn't have a very easy time keeping the chains moving.

I'm optimistic the 49ers won't push this total over given the loss of Gore from their offense. Although Coffee certainly is a capable backup, he doesn't bring the same explosiveness to the offense as Gore does. It's tough to say what Gore would have done had he played all of last week against the Vikings, but I feel fairly confident he could have managed better than the 2 ypc Coffee ran for. St. Louis has a pretty bad defense, but the conservative nature of the 49ers probably ensures that we won't see a lot of quick scores. I see the Rams scoring anywhere from 3-14 points, while I see the 49ers range being in the area of 14-21. This total should stay under, and hopefully does so easily so we won't be sweating it out in the final quarter.

• Denver Broncos +3

I've been hearing a lot of love for the Cowboys this week, but the Broncos were another team that immediately found themselves on my radar this week. Although the Broncos have benefited from playing the Browns and Raiders, and won on a lucky tip play at Cinci, they've still done their job and looked good doing it. Dallas comes into this game also having played a soft Panthers team and soft Bucs team, also doing their job against those two weak opponents. They also played the Giants tough at home, but came out losers in that one due to a rough outing by Romo.

Here is what's so interesting about this Dallas team. Dallas finds themselves in a unique situation where they're top 8 in the league in both yards per pass attempt and yards per rush attempt, and bottom 8 in both of those categories on defense. Considering the poor TB and Carolina offenses, I find this very alarming as they try to shut down the Denver attack. You can bet Denver will be able to put together a lot of long drives marching the ball down the field, keeping the ball out of Romo's hands. Meanwhile, even when the Cowboys do get the ball, their high flying offense will be tested by the #1 pass defense in the league and the #7 rush defense.

The bottom line is that Denver has been doing their job on offense and should continue to do so against this terrible Cowboys' defense. The Cowboys however, will find themselves facing a test and may struggle more to get points on the board. I think Denver wins this game fairly easily, taking it by a touchdown.

These are easily my favorite two plays this week, I'm still deciding if there is one more play I want to make or not. If I do add an additional play I'll make sure everyone is informed about it one way or another. If I don't add a play, good luck to all of you this week and I hope you have a successful Week 4!