NFC South Division Predictions and Win Totals

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Let me start by apologizing for the lengthy break since my last writeup. I've been quite busy lately and will continue to be, so I'm going to scrap the initial announced dates for the remaining divisions and just get to them as I can. One further note before moving on, when I broke down the AFC North I recommended the Steelers OVER 8 as a play, however for those of you who haven't placed any totals bets yet I no longer can recommend this play. Steelers RT Willie Colon suffered a season ending injury today, and this will definitely impact the offense this season. The Over wager no longer looks like a safe play, so I recommend staying away. We'll start back up with the NFC South, where the Saints look to defend their Super Bowl and Division titles. With win totals and division odds are taken from sportsbook.com, here's how I see the division breaking down this year:

• Atlanta Falcons
  
• Win Line: 9
  
• Odds to win division: +200

The injury plagued Falcons struggled in 2009, yet still managed to finish the season with a winning 9-7 record. There's no question that injuries to RB Michael Turner and QB Matt Ryan slowed this offense down a bit, yet it was the defense that was the biggest problem as it ranked 25th in the NFL in yards per pass attempt allowed. On offense the team was the definition of average, ranking 16th in both yards per pass attempt and yards per rush attempt.

This coming season, I expect a big year out of the Falcons offense, as long as Turner and Ryan can keep themselves healthy. Turner will be reporting this season in much better shape than last, and the Falcons should be a bit more conscientious of not overworking him. Ryan also should continue to find success with WR Roddy White and TE Tony Gonzales, 26+ TD passes out of him wouldn't surprise me at all. On the defensive side of the ball, the Falcons didn't do anything to improve their defensive line, however they did add OLB Sean Weatherspoon in the draft this year. They've also revamped their secondary, as they've added CB Dunta Robinson to the unit in an attempt to shore up the pass defense a bit more. I'm not sure the Falcons have done quite enough with their defense, however it should be at least a small step forward from where they were last season. I think the Falcons get over the hump and take at least one from the Saints this season, and with what appears to be one of the easier road schedules, I think the Falcons have a chance at overtaking the Saints for the NFC South title, making the +200 odds worth a shot.

Predicted Record: 10-6
Total Play: OVER 9

• Carolina Panthers
  
• Win Line: 7.5
  
• Odds to win division: +550

The Panthers found a way to finish at 8-8 in 2009, despite an abysmal start from QB Jake Delhomme. After deciding they had grown tired of Delhomme and his constant turnovers, the offense was handed over to QB Matt Moore, who led the Panthers to a 4-1 finish, throwing over 7 yards per pass attempt while he was at it. Passing problems aside, the Panthers ran the ball as well as ever, ranking 3rd best in the NFL in yards per rush attempt. Their biggest weakness was their rush defense however, ranking 25th in the NFL and giving up a whopping 4.5 yards per carry.

With Moore back at the helm in 2010, the Panthers have to feel like they have a chance to move forward. Moore took much better care of the ball than Delhomme, throwing 8 touchdowns to just 2 interceptions, and should continue to this coming season. Williams and Stewart should keep this running game as fearsome as ever, and I'd be surprised if it didn't rank among the best in the NFL again. The biggest problem the Panthers face on offense is the lack of WRs, as Steve Smith has broken his arm yet again and you have to figure that his health will be a concern most of the season. After Smith it's much more unclear who the Panthers will turn to, and you have to figure this will limit their passing game. On defense, the Panthers have completely remade their defensive line, with their most notable loss being Julius Peppers. You have to think that this will negatively impact their defense, and I see the Panthers unit as a whole taking a step back from 2009. The questions at WR and on defense make this team hard to back, and combined with a tough 2010 schedule I see a slightly worse record in the end for the Panthers.

Projected Record: 7-9
Total Play: NO PLAY

• New Orleans Saints
  
• Win Line: 10.5
  
• Odds to win division: -160

2009 was a dream season for the Saints, as they dominated almost the entire year and wound up Super Bowl champions when all was said and done. The Saints were a team with problems though. They frequently had defensive starters injured, sometimes missing three or four guys at once. Even healthy, the rush defense had to have been their biggest concern, as it ranked 23rd in yards per rush attempt allowed. The defense's ability to generate turnovers made up for this deficiency however, and the high flying offense always seemed to be able to put enough points on the board to win in the shootouts.

2010 I'm a bit less optimistic about the Saints' chances. At RB, the loss of Mike Bell may hurt the rushing attack a bit, although they still have Reggie Bush as a dynamic receiver out of the backfield and Pierre Thomas to be their primary rusher. The health of Shockey will play a role in how high this offense can fly, as it definitely seemed to be a bit more limited without him in the lineup. QB Drew Brees will still have plenty of targets to choose from however, and this should again be a top three passing attack. My biggest concern for the Saints is on defense. A lot of times when a team relies on turnovers like they did in 2009, you tend to see a sharp decline the following year. To generate that many turnovers again would be a very tough pace to keep up. Furthermore, although the Saints may have added Alex Brown on defense, I don't think he'll fully make up for the loss of Scott Fujita and Charles Grant. There is also some concern about Sharper as he comes off of knee surgery. The pass defense should be very good once again, however I think the rush defense will continue to struggle in 2010. Combine that with a few less bounces going their way, a tougher schedule, and some tough road games (I'm still not convinced this team plays at a high level on the road), and I think the Saints are set up for a big step back in 2010. They should still be a playoff team, but I wouldn't be surprised to see them fighting for the division in Week 17. -160 odds aren't good enough to back this team, and I see 10 or 11 wins for the Saints. Right now, I'll project them a bit lower with just too many unanswered questions about their defense and their offensive line (a couple players are holding out).

Projected Record: 10-6
Total Play: NO PLAY

• Tampa Bay Buccaneers
  
• Win Line: 5.5
  
• Odds to win division: +1500

Tampa had a very forgettable 2009, finishing with just a 3-13 record. It's tough to narrow down the team's problems, as they ranked poorly in almost every major category. On offense, the team was 26th in yards per pass attempt and 24th in yards per rush attempt, and on defense they were 23rd in yards per pass attempt and 32nd in yards per rush attempt. QB Josh Freeman struggled, throwing almost 2 interceptions per game, yet the Bucs look to start him in 2010. RBs Cadillac Williams and Derrick Ward will hold down the rushing game in 2010, and I expect them to take a step in the right direction and get this rushing attack ranked better than last year. At WR, the Bucs will look to two rookies to carry the load, Arrelious Benn and Mike Williams. Both WRs have quite a bit of hype surrounding them, and with Kellen Winslow at TE I think this passing game will improve as well, giving the Bucs a good chance at a better offense than last season. On defense, the Bucs tackled their rush defense problems by drafting Gerald McCoy, who should come in and immediately help this struggling unit. However, overall this will once again be a poor defensive unit. However, with what should be a bit easier of a schedule and an improved team, I think the Bucs can double their win total from last season.

Projected Record: 6-10
Totals Play: NO PLAY


2010 Projected NFC South Standings:
Falcons: 10-6
Saints: 10-6
Panthers: 7-9
Buccaneers: 6-10

NFC South Plays:
Falcons to win division: +200
Falcons OVER 9