Updates

Questions? Read my "About Me" section at the bottom of the page!

Plays no longer posted on blog! Email premiumfootballpicks@gmail.com for information on how to receive plays for free in 2010!

Records:

2008: 57-36-2 ATS (61.3%)
2009: 55-30-1 ATS (64.7%)

Overall: 112-66-3 ATS (62.9%)

Thursday, November 19, 2009

Thursday Night Play and Some Announcements

Happy Week 11 everyone! Let me start of with a couple announcements. First of all, despite being a game off of my 67% goal, I'm very happy with where things stand through the first 10 weeks. My system has really struggled so far (as have quite a few systems from what I gather), yet over the first 3 weeks of it producing plays I've managed a 9-5 ATS record on plays I've selected, much better than the 10-10 mark of all of its plays. I've made the decision to stop posting all system plays, as the plays I've posted that I haven't agreed with are only 2-5 ATS at this point. In my opinion, it doesn't make sense to show you guys losing plays, so until my system either turns it around or I start holding back winners I'm going to keep the additional plays on the shelf.

With my winning percentage currently at 65.9%, there are currently only 7 services being monitored by the Oklahoma Sports Monitor that have a higher winning percentage, none of which have released over 40 plays like I have. Also, only two services have more "Net Wins" than I do (+1 for every win, -1.1 for every loss). My current rate of return is 28.4%, meaning that for every dollar you invest on one of my plays you get a 28.4% gain. Only 7 services can claim better than that so far, and again, none of these services have released as many plays as me. Not only that, but none of these services offer their plays for free! We've been fortunate to be so successful so far, let's hope our good fortunes continue! Here's what I've got for tonight:
  • Miami Dolphins +3
The big thing scaring people away from the Dolphins in this game is the absence of RB Ronnie Brown. He's been a huge part of their wildcat offense, and without him there is concern that it will struggle to be as effective as before. However, Ricky Williams is a very suitable replacement to Brown, as he's been running great all season, averaging over 5 yards per carry. He should continue to find success, as the Panthers' run defense is one of the worst in the NFL, giving up 4.63 yards per rush attempt. Miami's running game shouldn't have much trouble getting going in this one, opening up the passing game for Henne.

Miami's run defense is also a strength of the team. They've limited opponents to 3.74 yards per carry, 6th best in the NFL. Considering that the main strength of the Panthers this year is running the ball, this is a very welcome sign. Although Miami's pass defense has been abysmal so far this season, the Panthers have had major struggles in their passing game, and if Delhomme is forced to air it out we may see a turnover or two.

Finally, I think Miami holds the special teams advantage in this contest. They're the 5th best team in the league at kickoff and punt returns, while Carolina is 8th worst. When it comes to defending these returns, Miami is right about average, while Carolina is the worst in the league. This leads me to believe that Miami will also win the battle of field position, which should go a long way in making sure they win this game. So, with all of these factors on our side and my system backing the Dolphins, I'll take Miami and hope that they get the job done.

As always, good luck to anyone who decides to wager tonight!