Hey guys, before I get into my recap of the first couple weeks, I just want to let you all know that I won't be making a play on the Colts/Dolphins game. I was considering Miami +3, but it simply isn't a play where it looks like there is any value in making the bet. We'll pick our spots and move ahead to Week 3. Every now and then I'll send out a little recap of what's been happening lately, as well as share some thoughts on the games. I may make it a weekly thing, it'll probably just depend on how much I feel like I have to say and how busy I am.
Sunday turned out to be an okay day, going 2-1 and profiting once again. It's no 6-0, but I'm happy to end up again and I'll go heavier again next time I see lots of value out there. The New Orleans game was close at the half, with the Eagles offense looking good throughout the second quarter. However, two turnovers deep in their own territory early in the second half quickly put the game out of reach. My fault for trusting Kolb, although I'm still not convinced the Saints will consistently get the job done on the road. There may be another opportunity in the future to try and exploit them. The Falcons and Ravens sure made things exciting with their lack of defense, but they both did the job for us in the end and gave us a couple nice wins.
So far, I've got to say I'm pretty happy with how things are going. I've posted an 8-1 record so far without the help of my system, and I've been doing a great job of weeding out potential plays that would wind up losing. When the lines come out every Tuesday I run through them and pick out the ones that catch my eye, and then narrow them down as the week goes on. The plays I've weeded out are a nasty 6-8, so I'm going to keep on taking this route and continue to find you guys the best possible value.
Although it is frustrating to only make 3 plays in a week, I'm going to go ahead and keep doing it as long as I don't see any value. I know a lot of you weren't yet on board for the 6-0 week, so you aren't quite as ahead as some of us. A 2-1 week doesn't feel like much, but do that every week of the season and you've got a 42-21 record. Sometimes I tend to focus too much on the short term, but if I just keep that goal of being well ahead in the end in mind, it helps calm some of my restlessness. We're in a sprint, not a marathon, so stay away from those teasers and parlays guys. Those are just going to set you back in the long run, it's very difficult to consistently come out ahead using those.
Of course, every week won't only have 3 picks. Until I kick off my system in Week 8, I anticipate a range of 3-6 picks a week, there may be a week or two along the way where we see a little more or less than that. It really depends on how good the lines are looking. Once my system kicks off, I'll have a separate section where I track of all system plays that I do not make official. This is for you guys who may want to pick through them and see what you like that my system backs, but remember that I'm leaving them out for a reason. Sometimes they'll be right, sometimes they'll be wrong, but I hope I can do a good job of narrowing them down.
That's about all I've got guys, we'll keep chugging along and try to continue building up some momentum for later in the season. Looking forward to a great Week 3, I'll have my plays out for you all around the usual time! For those of you betting College Football, good luck until next Sunday!
Sunday, September 20, 2009
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