Week 11 Recap and MNF

I'll begin by apologizing for how horrible this week went, I'm absolutely disgusted that I lost on so many plays and can assure you I'll do my best to make sure this doesn't happen again. I'm going to go ahead and release a play for tonight's game, hopefully this gets us back on track:

• Buffalo Cleveland Under 41

My program liked this game to go under to begin with, and now that there is some question surrounding the weather I feel even more confident recommending it. However, I advise you to use caution after the poor performance my totals program had this past weekend. Also, the weather has gone the opposite way I've expected twice now (It didn't rain on the night of Jets Pats, causing me to withhold my Over play, and the conditions at the Pittsburgh game were much worse than I had been led to believe when I released the Over play), so as usual take my advice with a grain of salt.

Now on to my recap of what happened this week. I'll apologize again for the poor results from this week. Obviously nobody can expect to win every week, but regardless I will be disappointed any time my recommendations hit at below .500, especially by three games. The most painful loss of the day was by far the Giants Ravens Over losing due to a botched extra point, but even if that had come through I still would have been below .500.

When I look back at how the week went, I'm always looking for ways to improve, regardless of whether I had a winning week or not. After how this went, I've decided I'll make a few changes in order to help insure we won't have a week like this again:

1. Plays will be released by email on Saturday, and posted on the site late Saturday night. I'm doing this at this point mostly due to the weather factor. Obviously weather plays a big part in how the flow of the game will go, so the closer to game time it gets, hopefully the more accurate the forecast will be.
2. I'm going to reduce the number of plays I release each week. After releasing a whopping 14 plays Week 10 and going 10-4, I felt like I had to try to come close to getting out that many plays this past week. I will admit that there were a few plays I was on the fence about releasing that I decided to just to have additional plays, which is an unacceptable way to approach things. The SD PIT over, Chi +3.5, and ARI SEA over would never have been released had I just been content with 8 plays going out, but I decided to go against my gut and trust my program in order to release a little more, which turned out to be a huge mistake.
   
3. I will no longer be recommending favorites of more than 8.5 points. If I look at my program for the three weeks it has been running, removing teams that fall under this category dramatically improves its record. Until these teams start to prove they can come through, I'm not going to so much as consider them.
   

Again, I'm sorry to have had such a poor week, I can't promise it won't happen again but I can say with 90% certainty it won't. I went into this week feeling nervous rather than confident, which I should have recognized as a bad sign from the start. I'll continue working towards Week 12 plays as I look to have a significant rebound, and once again remember that nothing is guaranteed. I am providing these picks to you for free, and although we had a down week things should improve in the future. Good luck to all of you tonight, I look forward to getting things back on track as soon as possible.