NFC West Division Predictions and Win Totals

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Well I find myself with a little extra time this week as I've been temporarily shelved by an ankle injury, but the good news is that means I can get to our next division writeup sooner! I'll tackle the NFC West this week, which looks likely to be one of the weaker divisions in the NFL this year. I'm pulling win totals and division odds from sportsbook.com again, here's what I see for the NFC West this year:

• Arizona Cardinals
  
• Win Line: 7.5
  
• Odds to win division: +300
  

Arizona had a successful 2009 season finishing the year at 10-6 before losing to the eventual Super Bowl champion Saints in the divisional round of the playoffs. Although still below average the running game took a step in the right direction, and Kurt Warner led the team to an above average mark in passing as well. On the defensive side of the ball Arizona had its ups and downs, ranking 5th against the pass, yet only 23rd against the run. However, the defense made up for this by being the 9th best unit in the NFL at scoring efficiency.

2010 for the Cardinals will be a very different year as they no longer have QB Kurt Warner or WR Anquan Boldin on the team. Matt Leinart steps in looking to lead this team, and given what I've seen from him so far I'm not sure he's ready to. Although I think WR Steve Breaston will do a decent job replacing Boldin, this passing unit is sure to take a step back as I see Leinart struggling with turnovers all year. The running game should continue to move forward however as RBs Tim Hightower and "Beanie" Wells lead the rushing attack, and with Wells looking like he'll get more touches I expect the team to be about average running the ball, maybe slightly better. However, overall this will probably be a very inconsistent offensive unit and the Cardinals will struggle to score at times in 2010. On defense, one has to think that the team is bound to improve at least slightly as they've added OLB Joey Porter to the unit. Although they also lost Antrel Rolle, the addition of FS Kerry Rhodes should pretty much make up for his absence. Karlos Dansby is the only other notable loss for this defense, but again they've got a man to fill the position with ILB Daryl Washington, although again he may not be able to produce at quite the same level. Overall though this unit should improve a little bit, I expect them to rank slightly worse against the pass, but fill the run gaps a little bit better and get that weakness under control. However, in the end the offense will limit what this team can do, and the Cardinals will take a step back and find themselves out of the playoffs.

Predicted Record: 7-9
Total Play: NO PLAY

• San Francisco 49ers
  
• Win Line: 8.5
  
• Odds to win division: -160

The 49ers showed flashes of promise in 2009, however inconsistent play by their quarterbacks resulted in them struggling to an 8-8 finish. The defense was a very bright spot for this team as they ranked 3rd in rush defense and 12th against the pass, while also ranking 3rd in scoring efficiency. With all of the same pieces in place as in 2009, and a little added depth by drafting Taylor Mays, I see a very similar outcome for this team in 2010. On offense, the team is also very similar aside from shuffling their offensive line yet again. Sacks played a big part in the poor passing numbers Smith put up in 2009, as he threw for only 5.5 yards per pass attempt, 23rd in the NFL. As Smith and the 49ers go forward in 2010, they're going to have to get improved play from the offensive line if these numbers are going to improve. Having WR Michael Crabtree all season should help, as he definitely has the talent to take a step forward and emerge as a top notch WR. If Vernon Davis also plays like he did last season, Smith should have the weapons to improve the team's passing numbers from last season, even if newly acquired WR Ted Ginn continues to be a bust. The running game was the bright spot on offense as usual last season, with RB Frank Gore leading the team to the 12th best rushing attack in the NFL. If Gore can stay healthy this season we should see similar if not a better ranking, and this should be a pretty balanced offense. Although facing a somewhat tough schedule this season, the 49ers are clearly the most complete team in the NFC West and should have no problem beating out the others for the division title and cruise into the playoffs.

Projected Record: 9-7
Total Play: OVER 8.5

• Seattle Seahawks
  
• Win Line: 7.5
  
• Odds to win division: +300

Seattle suffered through a miserable 2009 season, finishing with just a 5-11 record and absolutely terrible offensive numbers. The team was 9th worst at passing and 6th worst at running the ball, and despite their lack of yardage they were still the 7th least efficient team when it came to scoring the ball. On defense the news didn't get much better, as their bright spot was their average run defense. Their pass defense was a notch below, ranking 9th worst in the NFL, with scoring efficiency ranking the same.

Let's start with the offensive mess for Seattle. The good news is that with the Lendale White experiment over before it began, Justin Forsett should get a much higher number of touches. Forsett was a very underused piece of the offense last year, as he averaged over 5 yards per carry and has potential to be a difference maker on this offense. The Seahawks also added RB Leon Washington for return duties and to back up Forsett, and if he's recovered from his injury he should contribute to making this rush attack respectable for the Seahawks. In the passing game, Hasselbeck has struggled the past couple years with turnovers and the only new weapon he really has is rookie WR Golden Tate. I'm not a big believer that Tate can make a huge difference to this team, so I think the passing game will likely still be below average. On the defensive side of the ball, the Seahawks look like they may have a decent secondary, however their defensive line is a mess and possibly one of the worst in the league. It's going to be another season of the Seahawks struggling to pressure opposing quarterbacks, and with no impact players added to the unit it almost looks possible that they'll be worse than last year. With a shaky defense and an offense that has a lot of questions surrounding it, the Seahawks will not be able to compete this season, and the 7 wins I'm projecting them may actually be generous. This team won't be close to the playoffs, and get up to my 7 win projection if they're lucky.

Projected Record: 7-9
Total Play: UNDER 7.5

• St. Louis Rams
  
• Win Line: 5
  
• Odds to win division: +2200

The Rams began the long project of rebuilding by drafting QB Sam Bradford with the first overall pick, and look to put the Marc Bulger era behind them. However, I'm not sure that Bradford is the answer to their problems. St. Louis quarterbacks got sacked almost three times a game last season, and being a QB that holds on to the ball a little too long that doesn't bode well for Bradford. Donnie Avery will return this season as the #1 WR, and hopefully for the Rams he doesn't suffer nearly as many injuries as he did in 2009. Laurent Robinson will likely be the #2 WR on this team, and he may have something to offer if he too can stay healthy this year. The Rams can probably improve upon their 2nd worst ranked pass offense from last year, however I'm not sure they'll get out of the bottom 8. RB Steven Jackson will again be a workhorse for this team, as he kept the Rams above average running the ball, as they ranked 11th in yards per rush attempt. The inability of the Rams to keep drives alive will keep him from scoring the ball as usual though, and his durability will be a concern this year as usual.

On the defensive side of the ball, the Rams made a few changes to try and fix their 30th ranked pass defense and 20th ranked rush defense. While the Rams' secondary is made up of mostly the same starters, they added Fred Robbins on their defensive line to help out with the run defense. Their biggest changes were at the linebacker position, where they added Na'il Diggs and Bobby Carpenter. These two should also help shore up the run defense a bit, however I still see that huge weakness at passing defense, something that will haunt them this year. The Rams took a step in the right direction, although I'm not sure it was a very big one. A slightly more merciful schedule should help this team escape this season with a few more wins, although still well in last place.

Projected Record: 4-12
Totals Play: UNDER 5


2010 Projected NFC West Standings:
49ers: 9-7
Cardinals: 7-9
Seahawks: 7-9
Rams: 4-12

NFC West Plays:
49ers to win division: -160
49ers OVER 8.5
Seahawks UNDER 7.5
Rams UNDER 5