Week 5 Sunday Plays

Time for Week 5 guys, another week of some tight lines and a few that look like traps. I've got a little bit more action this week than last week, coming up with four plays total. I feel pretty good about these plays, I definitely thought they were the best 4 out there, hopefully it works out so that we get a 3-1 week at worst. However, nothing is guaranteed in this business and I again want to remind everyone that just because I went 15-3 on my first 18 plays doesn't mean I'll keep that pace up! As always, manage your money wisely. On to this week's plays:

• SF 49ers -2
• SF/Atlanta UNDER 40.5
  

This is a very interesting game this week, with Atlanta coming off of a bye and Frank Gore still out for the 49ers. The main philosophy driving this pick for me is how much worse the Falcons were last year on the road, and their brutal loss to the Patriots a couple of weeks ago led me to believe that nothing has changed. They've struggled to get Turner running well all year, and the SF defense will certainly be another challenge for him.

Atlanta has been a middle of the pack defense so far, and although San Francisco doesn't exactly light it up on offense they usually are able to put some quality drives together to get points on the board. Their defense is stellar at creating turnovers as well, something that could also set them up for some easy points. I think both offenses will struggle to move the ball in this one, but in the end San Fransisco will come out with a win in a hard fought, low scoring game.

• Houston Texans +5

I'm not ready to give up on the Texans yet. Although they benefited from playing the lowly Raiders last week, bringing their defensive numbers to a little bit more reasonable of a level, I'm still aware that their defense just isn't good. However, Arizona is not playing anywhere near the level they played last year. Turnovers have cost them big so far, and like years in the past their rushing offense is putting up very mediocre numbers.

The red flag here that makes me go with the Texans is how awful the Arizona pass defense has been. Arizona has allowed 7.2 yards per pass attempt against them, something that I fully expect the Texans to take advantage of. Although Arizona will put up their fair share of points, Houston will be able to answer without much problem. Not to mention that the Texans are finally starting to get Steve Slaton going as he's been running much better these last two games with 33 carries for 141 yards. This game could get pretty high scoring, although a 24-21 type of game wouldn't surprise me either. I think that worst case scenario has Arizona winning by a field goal. The Texans should cover in this one no problem.

• Patriots/Broncos UNDER 41

This play jumped out pretty quickly to me this week. Here we have a Patriots offense that still hasn't done anything to show me that they've gelled, going against one of the best defenses in the NFL right now. The Patriots should have lost last week's game, as they didn't look great on offense, but got bailed out by a few dumb penalties by the Ravens that kept their drives alive. Meanwhile, we have a Denver offense here that isn't the most explosive offense in the world, going against a middle of the pack defense. I'd be very surprised if we didn't see Denver trying to run quite a bit on the Patriots and wind clock to keep the ball out of Brady's hands, which of course will aid in keeping the point total in this game down. These teams are also the 8th and 11th worst in the league at turning their yards into points, so we may see them settling for field goals quite a bit (Not to mention that Denver's defense is best in the league in this category). We should have a low scoring battle ahead of us in Denver tomorrow, and I think the under has a pretty high chance of coming through for us.
Good luck this week guys!