Last week was a good one, going 3-0 on my posted plays, with my program actually getting all of its ATS picks correct. This week, the slate of games isn't looking nearly as clear cut as I've found myself struggling all week to find any games that have a lot of appeal. Since the season is almost over, and we're down to just a few games a week, I'm going to post up brief write ups on my takes on all of the games, while only making a few picks. So, to be clear, you will be seeing my opinions on all of the games this weekend, but just because I have an opinion does not make it a recommended play. If I recommend something as a play, I will clearly say so, and conclude with a brief list of any picks I made. So, on to the games!
- Saturday, 4:30 ET: Ravens at Titans
My program favors Baltimore in this game, but only because of the three points really. If I were looking at this game SU, it gives Baltimore just a .61 point edge. When I take a step back and examine this game though, I'm feeling like I need to go against my program. Baltimore has shown nothing against quality teams this season (I refuse to recognize last week's stomping of the Dolphins as significant), with losses to the Giants, Steelers (Twice), Colts, and Titans. Their best win of the season could very well be over the Eagles, which was a close game at half before McNabb was benched. Now, they're facing the Titans again in a hostile environment with a rookie QB facing one of the best defenses in the NFL. I know Baltimore's defense has been great as well, so I expect a low scoring game. However, I think Tennessee will take better care of the ball and come out with a win. I'm liking Tennessee -3 as a lean, and
Under 34 as a play in this one.
- Saturday, 8:15 ET: Cardinals at Panthers
I've been scratching my head over this game all week. When I ran the program, it actually liked Arizona to win outright by about 3 points. So, when I first saw the line of Arizona +9.5, I had to take a moment to pause and wonder what exactly was going on. Obviously Arizona has been terrible going to the East Coast all year, with blowout losses to the Jets and Patriots and additional losses to the Redskins and Panthers. In fact, the best game they played out east was possibly at Carolina. When my program has a value above 7, it has been incredibly reliable this year. Since the value is about 12 for this game, I have to go ahead and trust it despite feeling uneasy about it all week. I think Arizona will do a decent job of slowing down the Panther offense and find ways to put points on the board, with or without Boldin (In Breaston I trust). I highly doubt Arizona can steal this game, but I do think they'll keep it within a touchdown. Therefore, I'm making
Arizona +9.5 a play, with a slight lean towards the over 48.5.
- Sunday, 1:00 ET: Eagles at Giants
Way too many people like Philly in this one. I was hoping this line would fall to -3, but it doesn't look like fate will be so good to us. The Eagles had way too tough of a time against the Vikings in round one in my opinion, and with the return of a healthy Brandon Jacobs the Giants' offense takes on a much better look. I think the Giants will focus in on stopping Westbrook in this one, which will result in Reid turning the Eagles' offense into the McNabb show and making Philly one dimensional. I'm going to trust the Giants since they've been here before, and I think their coaching advantage is worth a few points on its own. I'll go with
Giants -4 as a play, a lean towards the over 39.5, but if you can get this at -3 somehow I'd definitely try to do that to be safe.
- Sunday, 4:45 ET: Chargers at Steelers
I'm having the toughest time figuring this game out. I can't for the life of me figure out whether or not the Chargers have fixed their defense, or whether this game will even be high or low scoring. I have very slight leans for this game, Under 38 and Steelers -6. However, I wouldn't be at all surprised to see the Chargers come in and steal this game from the Steelers outright. I just don't know which Chargers team will show up, and I don't want to guess.
So, in review, here are the plays for this week:
ATS
Totals
Good luck this week everybody!
Stumble It!