Week 16 Plays

I've had what I consider to be a very disappointing last two weeks, despite still having a winning record over that span of 6-5-1. I feel like I've done a bad job filtering my plays, and I could have easily avoided some of those losers. So, I look to bounce back this week and get back to picking games at a higher level of success. I've fallen just a couple games off of my goal of 67%, so I'll have to really step it up to get back to that mark! Here's what I'm liking this weekend:

• New England Patriots -9

The Patriots have feasted on weak passing defenses this year, and this is exactly what they'll face this week against the Jaguars, who are 4th worst in the league at yards per pass attempt allowed. Since the Pats are a bottom 8 team at yards per rush attempt, and the Jags are top 8 in the league on defense in this category, it seems clear to me that the Patriots will choose to focus their attack through the air and really exploit this weakness. I doubt points are a problem for them in this one. The question that leaves is how dangerous the Jaguars' offense can be, and if they can keep up. At home this year the Patriots are allowing under 14 ppg, and on the road the Jaguars are averaging slightly above 14 ppg. With the Patriots' biggest weakness being their pass defense, and Jacksonville ranking 20th in the league at yards per pass attempt, I don't think they'll be able to exploit the Patriot defense and New England should come away with a double digit win.

• Houston Texans +1

Everyone knows that the Texans have struggled running the ball this year, with their greatest strength being passing (They rank 5th in the league in yards per pass attempt). So, when a team's greatest strength plays into their opponents' greatest weakness (Miami is 8th worst team in the league in yards per pass attempt allowed), I feel that there is a good opportunity for a win. Miami has allowed 31 ppg this year to teams that are top 8 in the league at throwing the ball, and I envision the Texans bouncing back from a dismal offensive performance last weekend against the Rams. Defensively, the Texans are average against the pass and slightly above average against the run, so I feel like the Dolphins offense will have some opportunities, but not as many as the Texans. I think the Texans will take this game and keep themselves alive for a playoff spot.

• New York Jets +5.5
• Jets/Colts UNDER 40.5

First of all, we don't know how much playing time the Colts' starters will be seeing in this game. It sounds like Freeney and Mathis will be used sparingly, and that it is quite possible Manning does not play the entire contest as the Colts continue to stress that 16-0 is not their goal. With Freeney and Mathis not on the field too often, I look for the Jets to advantage of their rushing attack (5th in yards per rush attempt), hopefully putting some long drives together and putting some points on the board. I'd expect that times the Jets start to get close would be when we're more likely to see Freeney and Mathis on the field, so the Jets may have to settle for field goals a few times. Meanwhile, when the Colts get opportunities, they certainly will have no easy task. The Jets have been one of the best defenses in the league, currently 5th best in yards per rush attempt allowed, and 1st in yards per pass attempt allowed. I expect them to frustrate Manning and really limit the Colts' opportunities to score, keeping this a defensive battle. In the end, whether Manning comes out of the game or not, I think we're likely to see a 17-13 type of game, with the Jets very possibly winning outright.

I'm going to hold it to that this weekend and see if getting more selective again can help right the ship! Good luck everyone!

Week 15 Plays

For the second week in a row I find myself making more plays than usual, however I feel like there are quite a few opportunities out there this week. Hopefully, we can get a few more wins this time around. Here's what I like this weekend:

• Texans -14
• Texans/Rams UNDER 43.5

This game is pretty clear cut in my mind. The Houston defense has been playing much better lately, and the Rams offense has been terrible all year. Now that the team has been hit with Swine Flu, and won't have Steven Jackson in the game to aid them, their offense is really going to struggle moving the ball. Kyle Boller is questionable to play, however given his lack of practicing this week I'd be surprised to see him out there, leaving the Rams with their 3rd string QB yet again. The Rams' defense will struggle keeping the Texans' offense in check, and the only way I see this total going over is if the Texans push it over with a mammoth point total. Worst case scenario we split these picks and eat a little juice, but I think there's a great chance we win them both with the Texans winning with a score in the neighborhood of 31-10.

• Browns +2
• Browns/Chiefs UNDER 37

This is a pretty unique game in the sense that both teams are bottom 8 in the league in rushing and passing yards/attempt on both offense and defense! It's pretty abysmal to be so bad in those phases of the game on both sides of the field. However, lately the Browns have shown signs of righting the ship, as they upset the Steelers on Thursday night, and haven't turned the ball over in their last four games. The Chiefs meanwhile, have continued to struggle. In their last four games, their defense has been as bad as ever, and they've turned the ball over 7 times. The only thing they've done well lately is run the ball with Charles, and very quietly the Browns rushing defense has been a top 8 unit in the league over their last five games. I expect neither team to light up the scoreboard, but for the Browns to have more scoring opportunities as they'll take better care of the ball and give Cribbs more opportunities to make plays. Browns should win this game something like 16-10.

• Tennessee Titans -5

It looks like Vince Young will be playing in this one, which I love considering that the Titans' passing offense is much better under him and the Dolphins have the 8th worst passing defense in the NFL. Like every other team, they'll have to dedicate a lot of energy into figuring out how to contain Chris Johnson, which will hopefully leave the passing game wide open for Young. The Titans are still throwing the ball great, and the speedier backs have been the type that give the Dolphins trouble. As I've said in the past, the Titans' biggest weakness has been their rushing defense. However, lately the Dolphins have abandoned the wildcat formation, and in their last three games they've run for under 4 yards/carry. I think the Titans can have their way on offense in this one, and if the Dolphins find themselves forced into throwing the ball I think we'll see some turnovers as well. Titans should cruise to a win by two scores.

Saturday Night Football Play

I'll be sending out an email with all my weekend plays in a bit, I'm running a bit behind on my writeups, but I just wanted to get this play out there first since the game is tonight:

• Dallas Cowboys +9

Although people have been making a big deal about the Cowboys' usual December Swoon and all the problems they are having, I think the Cowboys have a legitimate shot in this game. The Saints have been very banged up on defense in past weeks, and this week doesn't look to be much better with a number of players questionable and Jabari Greer already ruled out. Teams have been moving the ball no problem against them lately, and although the Cowboys have struggled converting their yardage into points I think that this is the week where they finally start finding the end zone a bit more. I like the Cowboys to attack on the ground in this one, as Felix Jones and Marion Barber shouldn't have much trouble establishing a running game, and I think that the threat of these two should open up the passing game for Romo as well. Dallas should put some solid drives together to at least keep themselves in the game, perhaps with a chance to win it at the end. So, in this spot, I'll take the Cowboys and hope they can keep it within one score.

Good luck to everyone tonight!

Week 14 Weekend Plays

Once again we hit the ground running with a Thursday Night Football win, and this week with a lot on the table that I'm liking, we're looking to have a big weekend to make it a very profitable week. Here's what I'm liking this weekend:

• Broncos/Colts UNDER 44

So far this season, the Colts have been an offensive juggernaut. However, most of their production has come through the passing game as the rushing offense has struggled, and they have yet to face a team that is top 12 in the league in yards/pass attempt allowed. Denver certainly falls into this category, as they come into this contest ranked #2 in the NFL allowing 5.24 yards/pass attempt. Considering that Denver has the 7th best rushing defense as well, it's hard to believe that Addai will get going and be able to produce much on the ground for the Colts. The Colts will find ways to score as they usually do, however I feel that they may be settling for field goals more than touchdowns come Sunday, scoring in the neighborhood of 23 points.

On Denver's side of the ball, this year they've tended to disappear when facing good defenses. I think what's going to hurt them in this game is their lack of passing offense. This season they're throwing the ball for 6.13 yards/pass attempt, which is 17th in the NFL, slightly below average. The Colts have been the 8th best passing defense this season, leading me to believe that Denver will have some trouble airing it out. Denver likely knows this, which will lead them to turning their attack to the ground, as they have the 10th best rushing offense in the NFL. The Colts' rush defense is nothing special, ranking 15th in the NFL, so I feel like we could be seeing the kinds of drives out of Denver where they burn up a few minutes of clock and wind up punting. All in all, I'm not sure who comes out of this game covering the spread, but I'm confident that it stays a lower scoring affair, making the under the play.

• Bengals +6.5
  
• Bengals/Vikings UNDER 43

Very quietly, the Bengals have been a top notch defensive unit, and in my opinion could be the best defense in the NFL. The Bengals rank 6th in yards per pass attempt allowed, 5th in yards per rush attempt allowed, and 2nd in defensive scoring efficiency. Although they're matched up against the Vikings, a team that has scored the 2nd most PPG in the NFL, I'm not too concerned. This is because of the soft schedule that the Vikings have played so far. Minnesota has played two teams above .500 so far this year, the Packers twice, both wins, and then the Cardinals, who put them to shame last Sunday Night. Other teams in the neighborhood of being good that they've played would be the 49ers, Steelers, and Ravens, two wins they had to fight hard for and a loss. In this game, I think Minnesota will face yet another test, and while I don't necessarily believe they'll lose outright, it will certainly be a close game. Despite the Bengals being a run heavy team, they've shown that they can throw the ball when they need to as they rank 16th in the NFL in yards/pass attempt. Should they find themselves unable to move the ball on the ground, I think Palmer and Ochcocinco can put some points on the board. However, in the process, I think the Bengals will find themselves facing a lot of 3rd and longs, which will hurt their ability to keep drives together so that they don't score too many points to push this total over. I think this is a sloppy game by both offenses, and stays lower scoring than people expect, with the Bengals covering in a hard fought game.

• Titans -13

After a very sloppy loss on the road last week against the Colts, the Titans return home to face the struggling Rams this week. St. Louis has a history of playing much worse on the road, and that history has held true so far this season as they've averaged about 9 ppg on the road. Take out their two shutout losses, and they've still only managed about 13.5 ppg. Against this Titans defense, you would expect the Rams to put some points on the board since they have Steven Jackson, and the Tennessee rush defense has been so terrible. However, I expect Tennessee to focus completely on shutting Jackson down, letting Boller beat them. Unfortunately for Boller, the Tennessee passing defense is an above average unit, and should be able to create a couple of turnovers against him.

On offense, the Titans should have no trouble moving the ball downfield. They moved the ball against a much better Indy defense last week, but were unable to convert their yardage into points on the scoreboard. With Chris Johnson going against the 6th worst rushing defense in the NFL, I expect the points to come a bit easier. Not to mention, Tennessee's passing attack should be able to get the job done as well as the Rams have the 8th worst passing defense in the NFL. Finally, combine that with the 4th worst scoring efficiency defense, and the pieces are all in place for a blowout win by the Titans. I'm slightly concerned about the health status of Young, but right now the signs point to him playing. Even if he doesn't, I think Kerry Collins will be able to get the job done as he's had time to work with the first string offense this week.

• Cowboys -3.5

At first glance this play looks like suicide given how hot the Chargers have been lately, combined with how streaky the Cowboys are. However, I'm convinced that this is a game that Dallas will win fairly comfortably. For starters, I think that this is the game where San Diego's lack of a rushing attack catches up with them. The Chargers currently are last in the NFL in yards per rush attempt, and if they become one dimensional against a team as good as the Cowboys that will certainly affect their offense. Also, despite being 2nd in the NFL in yards per pass attempt, the bulk of those numbers have either come from home games or against weak teams. In the Chargers' three true road tests, the Giants, Steelers, and Broncos, their passing offense has mustered only 5.78 yards per pass attempt, a far cry from their overall figure of 8.06.

The Cowboys' shot at winning this game will rely heavily on their rushing offense. They currently are the best rushing team in the NFL, and matched up against the 11th worst rushing defense in the NFL, I like their chances to keep the chains moving. If Dallas can put some long drives together, the Chargers likely will also struggle to get into a rhythm on offense. I think that Dallas will get the job done in this contest, playing a solid defensive game and putting some points on the board on offense. I think Dallas takes this by a touchdown.

That's all I've got for this week, good luck to everyone who decides to wager!

Hey guys! We cashed in our 6th straight winning week last week and we're looking to make it 7 in a row! I'm going to go ahead and release one play for Thursday Night, this play comes mostly from the weather conditions for the game. Here's what I like:

• Steelers/Browns UNDER 33.5

Weather is going to have a huge impact in this game, as we're going to have sustained Southwest winds of 25-35 mph and snow falling. The wind is going to be a crosswind on the field, which favors low scoring more than if it were going directionally. With these conditions, you can expect each team to load up the box to stop the run, daring the other to throw deep on them. Given the wind, I doubt we'll see any long completions resulting in quick scores.

Now let's look at how each team is equipped to deal with this situation. For starters, Steelers WR Hines Ward is dealing with a hamstring injury, and most likely won't play in this game. Pittsburgh's strength this year has been throwing the ball, as they're 4th best in the NFL at yards per pass attempt. With the conditions limiting how effective their air game an be, they'll likely focus on running the ball. While their rushing offense is slightly above average, with the Browns focusing on shutting it down due to the weather conditions, I don't expect a ton of production on the ground for them. On Cleveland's side of the ball, without poor conditions they've been the worst passing offense in the NFL, with their rushing offense ranking 4th worst. Factoring in the weather, I think there is a legitimate chance they don't make it to double digit points. We're likely looking at a sloppy game with a few turnovers, and extreme difficulty kicking field goals. With all of that in mind, the under is the clear play here. Good luck to anyone who bets on the game!

Week 13 Weekend Plays

We've benefited from winning Thursdays a few weeks in a row now, and like previous weeks I'm hoping to continue the momentum. I feel like this weekend is a bit tougher than most, but I've still come up with a few plays that I feel pretty good about. Here's what I like this weekend:

• Tennessee Titans +6.5

It feels like almost everybody is on this play already, which as I mentioned last week in my Dolphins play always worries me a bit. However, I simply can't ignore the recent level of play by the Titans. Vince Young has revitalized the offense, Tennessee is throwing for 7.39 yards/pass attempt and rushing for 5.5 yards/carry, 4th and 1st best in the NFL. On defense, their rushing defense has been a bit of a problem, however the Colts have the 9th worst rushing offense in the NFL so I expect that this won't be a huge issue. The key I see here is the Titans' pass defense. They've played much better of late, as the unit is starting to get healthy and they've been the 5th best defense in the NFL in terms of passing yards per attempt allowed.

This is a much different Titans team than the Colts saw earlier this season, and I don't think that Tennessee will repeat the mistake of giving Johnson the ball only 9 times. I don't think the Colts' defense will be able to shut Tennessee's offense down, and that the Titans will be able to slow the Indy offense just enough to give themselves a chance to win this game. I'll take the points and hope the Titans get the job done.

• Washington Redskins +9.5

After an impressive Monday Night win over the Patriots, I think this is an obvious letdown spot for the Saints. After their last Monday Night victory over the Panthers they showed some signs of letting down, before the Panthers handed them the game and they won by 10. I think that they'll struggle even a little more in this spot, especially because the game is on the road. Another factor to take into consideration in this one is that Washington has the 4th best pass defense in the NFL, allowing just 5.48 yards/pass attempt. The only other opponent that the Saints have played that was ranked top 8 in pass defense was the Jets, and they held the Saints to 10 offensive points. Buffalo, the 9th ranked pass defense, also held Brees in check and limited the Saints to 27 points, their second lowest point total of the year. So, given the facts that Washington is strong against the pass and this is a letdown spot, I think the Saints will likely be held under 30 points.

So, given that I feel the Saints' offense may struggle a bit, the question becomes how effectively the Redskins can keep up on the scoreboard. Two of Washington's last three games they've topped 21 points, and I'm starting to think that their offense may be coming together. The Saints will also be without 4 defensive players on Sunday, and I think the letdown from Monday Night will be even more apparent on the defensive side of the ball. The Redskins should be able to put some solid drives together and make a game of this one, as they'll probably try to attack the Saints on the ground all game, and succeed. Again, I'll take the points and hope that the Redskins come ready to play.

That's it this week! Good luck to everyone tomorrow!

I've decided on releasing two Thursday Night plays for the first time this season, but with good reason. I'm very confident in both of these plays, as long as the Jets show up these should win no problem. Here's what I'm thinking for tonight:

• New York Jets -3
• Jets/Bills UNDER 37

To begin, let's note that this game is in Canada and not Buffalo's true home stadium. The past two weeks, the Bills have looked like a different team as Fitzpatrick has thrown for 583 yards (291.5 y/gm). However, there are some factors that need to be taken into account. First of all, these games have been against the Jaguars and Dolphins, the 3rd and 9th worst pass defenses in the NFL. Secondly, this week the Bills find themselves against the Jets, the #1 ranked pass defense in the NFL. Over those two games, Terrell Owens has experienced a resurgence, as he has accounted for 293 yards receiving, over half of Fitzpatrick's total yardage. This week, he faces Revis, who we've all become familiar with as the best corner in the NFL. After shutting down Steve Smith last week (1 catch for 5 yards), Revis should have no problem with the slower Owens. Sure Owens has size, but so did Randy Moss and Andre Johnson, and Revis took care of them as well. Not to mention that in their first meeting Revis held him to just 13 yards receiving. When you also consider that Buffalo's rush offense is 19th in the NFL in yards per rush attempt, and that they're going against the 6th best rushing defense in the NFL, I just can't see how this offense will move the ball at all. Their best offense might be their defense, as they'll have to hope that Mark Sanchez turns the ball over multiple times as he did in their first meeting, which is always a possibility. I don't think that this will happen though, as the Jets will take advantage of the fact that the Bills have the 2nd worst rushing defense in the NFL, and keep the majority of their offense to the ground. I think the Jets will have some time consuming drives, while the Bills will simply not get many opportunities and struggle when they do. I'd be shocked if the Bills topped 13 points in this one, as the Jets might even flirt with shutting their offense out. I see the Jets winning comfortably, along the lines of 20-6.

Good luck to those of you who decide to make a wager tonight!

Stats and Information Through 12 Weeks

It's been a hell of a first 12 weeks, with my plays sitting at 35-17 ATS (67.3%). It's hard to believe we're so far into the season already, and while my system has not been performing great or producing as many plays as last year, we've still found ways to succeed. In just nine weeks, we'll be on to Superbowl Sunday, which hopefully will be closing out a very successful year. I'm hoping to have sent out about 90 plays by then and still be hitting in the neighborhood of 67%, but as usual, I will not force anything.

Allow me to update you on how my system is doing. Since it kicked off Week 8 until now, it has produced a record of merely 20-16 ATS (55.56%). This isn't even close to where it was at this point last year, and I've been taking some in depth looks to try to figure out where the problem is. Luckily, I think I've found the answer. A key stat that my system uses is yards per point scored. I have data going back to 2004 on this system, and on the teams each year. From 2004-2008, there were a grand total of 4 teams that had a mark of 20 yards per point scored or worse. At this point this season, we currently have 5 teams that rank this poorly, including the Rams, who have the worst offensive efficiency my system has ever seen. I have to believe that this is a large part in what is throwing off my system, so although I will continue to look at it this season and let it weigh into my decisions, I will certainly keep more of a level head about it capabilities. In future years, I expect teams' offenses to return to the norm and for my system to become a valuable asset again.

As you've seen from a couple previous emails of mine, I like to see how my plays compare to the "Experts" tracked by the Oklahoma Sports Monitor. Unfortunately these people charge hefty sums of money for their plays, while the vast majority of them fail to produce records that show they deserve it. Not only that, but the services that top the chart year to year are often one hit wonders, who you never see ranked that high again. If I were being tracked this year (The $350 charge to be tracked by them is all that is stopping me), I'd currently be ranked 3rd in winning percentage, 2nd in Rate of Return, and 1st in Net Wins. If you were to compare me only to services that have released over 50 plays so far this year, I'd be ranked 1st in every category. I take a great deal of pride in this fact, especially given the fact that I offer all of these plays for free.

This leads me to my final point - donations. I've never been one to go out of my way to ask for money, however over the past year and a half I have been asked a few times if I accept donations. I just wanted to make everyone aware that I now have a link up on my site that will take you to a paypal page that will accept donations on my behalf the remainder of this season. If you would like to donate by a different method, feel free to email me and we could figure something out. This is by no means a requirement, it is completely your decision depending on how much I've helped you profit this season and if you're feeling generous. You will not stop receiving plays or anything like that if you choose not to donate. If any of you feel like donating, thank you in advance, it is greatly appreciated!

Moving on from that, I'd just like to let you all know that I may have a play or even two for tomorrow night's game, I'm going to do a bit more research before making my final decision. I'll send out an email in the afternoon informing everyone if there is a play. Good luck to everyone the remainder of the season!

Week 12 Plays

Got the week off to a good start with a win on Thanksgiving, hopefully we can close this week out with some solid plays to make it a very profitable week. I've got a few plays I'm really confident in, so hopefully these will come through for us. Here's what I like this weekend:

• New York Jets -3
• Jets/Panthers UNDER 41.5
  

Although my system does not back these plays, I've got a very high level of confidence in them. I know that the Jets have been struggling lately, but this just isn't a good match-up for Carolina. First of all, we've got Revis covering Steve Smith, the only reliable target through the air for Delhomme. 25% of his completions have gone to Smith, with 50% of his touchdown throws going to him as well. Revis has already shut down Marques Colston, Randy Moss, and Andre Johnson this year, so I have to believe that he will make it very difficult for Delhomme to get the ball to his favorite target. Since the Panthers will struggle moving the ball through the air, they'll likely turn to their ground game and spend the game hammering the ball with their running backs. The Jets, however, have had a very good run defense so far this year, even recently in their struggles. In their last 6 games (They're 1-6 over this span), they're still only allowing 3.93 yards/rush attempt, which is 6th best in the league. Therefore, I've got to believe that they'll do a decent job limiting the damage that Carolina can do on the ground, making it very difficult for the Panthers to get points.

On offense, it's no secret that the Jets have struggled lately, mostly due to Sanchez's inability to take care of the ball. Rex Ryan has spent the week working with Sanchez on his ball security, but despite this fact I doubt they'll let him throw too much in this contest. Carolina's pass defense is 9th best in the league, so the Jets will likely also choose to fight their battle on the ground. The Jets are the 6th best rushing offense in the league, and going against the 6th worst rushing defense in the league a bit of a mismatch seems to exist. The Jets should be able to use their running game to set up the pass, and I look for Sanchez to have a much better game and turn the ball over no more than one time. I expect this game to stay lower scoring, with the Jets' offense finding yards and points much easier than the Panthers'. I expect a final score in the neighborhood of 23-13 Jets.

• New Orleans Saints -1.5

I remain stubborn in my opinion that all is not well on the New England offense. Their struggle all year has been finishing drives, and against a team like the Saints I don't expect them to be able to get away with this flaw. This year (Discounting the Titans game, in which Tennessee clearly wasn't interested in playing), the Patriots have scored 23 offensive touchdowns to 19 field goals. This means that only 55% of the Patriots' scoring drives have been touchdowns, the 9th worst percentage in the league. Also, the Saints have proven to have a very capable pass defense, which ranks 6th best in the league at yards/pass attempt allowed. I expect them to dial up the pressure and throw Brady off of his game a bit, again limiting the Patriots' scoring opportunities a bit.

The Saints however, have been excellent at scoring all year as everyone knows. The Saints continue to have the best passing offense, fifth best rushing offense, and best scoring efficiency in the league. The Patriots defense is middle of the pack in both rushing and passing defense, and allow 68% of scoring drives on them to end in touchdowns, the 8th worst percentage in the league. So, it looks like the pieces are all in place for the Saints to have yet another big offensive night. As I've said before, the Saints are one of the few teams in the NFL that appear to still have a large home-field advantage, and I expect that to only help on Monday night against the Patriots. Saints should win this game by a touchdown at least, something like 38-27.

• Miami -3

This game looks a bit like a trap and the public is all over it, but sometimes the public is right and I think this is one of those cases. We again have the setup of a poor rushing defense going against the wildcat offense, which Ricky Williams has excelled in so far. Miami's offense is still rushing for about 4.7 yards per carry, 6th best in the NFL. This is enough for them to overcome a mediocre passing game, which always manages to do just enough.

Buffalo's offense is still a mess, Owens' long touchdown last week could be attributed to a bit of a fluke as Jacksonville was missing a key corner. Miami's big defensive liability is the pass, which actually has been better of late. Even if they don't show up, Buffalo's passing offense is still below average, so I don't expect a lot of firepower out of them. Miami knows they have to show up this week if they want any hope at making the playoffs, I expect them to do just that as they win this one by a touchdown.

That's it for this week everyone, good luck this week!

Week 11 Sunday Plays

We got the week off to a good start with Miami coming through for us and winning, but we still have a few plays to go that will hopefully seal out a good week. This was a tough week for me to pick as I didn't like a lot of what my system was recommending, and I felt that it was a very tight set of lines. However, I've managed to pull a couple more plays together that I think have a great chance of coming through. Here's what I've got this weekend:

• Chargers/Broncos UNDER 45

I'm liking this under for all the same reasons I liked it the first time, and we get more points this time. I'm going to have to cross my fingers that we don't see three return touchdowns again. Although Denver's defense seemed to get a bit exposed last week in Washington, I still think they're a top notch unit and just came out a bit flat last week. At home against the Chargers this week, you can be sure they'll be fired up, which is great to know given that they're the 6th best passing defense and 7th best rushing defense on the season. As far as the Chargers' defense goes, they're slightly above average in both pass and rush defense. The Eagles tore them up through the air last week, but I think with Orton out of this game we won't have to worry about too dangerous of a passing attack from the Broncos. They'll likely try to win this game on the ground, which should result in a lot of clock being run on scoring drives. I don't think we'll see another three special team touchdowns, and we shouldn't see many if any quick scores. This game should go under pretty easily, I see about 41 points being the ceiling in this one.

• Lions/Browns UNDER 38

I'm a little nervous about this one because it looks like an obvious pick. The Browns' offense has been terrible all year as everyone knows, and the Lions haven't exactly been lighting up the scoreboard either. There's only one way I can see this game going over, which would be if the Lions blow the Browns out. The Browns' defense is good enough to keep that from happening, and should come out fired up knowing that this is a rare opportunity for the team to win a game. I don't think the Cleveland offense will do much different than usual, trying to move the ball methodically down the field, meaning that even if they do somehow find the end zone they'll eat a lot of clock in the process. I can't imagine a likely scenario where more than 37 points are scored, so I'm going to roll with the under here and hope that the Lions can contain Cribbs.

That's it for this week, small week I know, but I'm going to continue picking my spots and not forcing any plays! Hopefully next weekend has a little more action for us! Good luck to everyone this week!

Thursday Night Play and Some Announcements

Happy Week 11 everyone! Let me start of with a couple announcements. First of all, despite being a game off of my 67% goal, I'm very happy with where things stand through the first 10 weeks. My system has really struggled so far (as have quite a few systems from what I gather), yet over the first 3 weeks of it producing plays I've managed a 9-5 ATS record on plays I've selected, much better than the 10-10 mark of all of its plays. I've made the decision to stop posting all system plays, as the plays I've posted that I haven't agreed with are only 2-5 ATS at this point. In my opinion, it doesn't make sense to show you guys losing plays, so until my system either turns it around or I start holding back winners I'm going to keep the additional plays on the shelf.

With my winning percentage currently at 65.9%, there are currently only 7 services being monitored by the Oklahoma Sports Monitor that have a higher winning percentage, none of which have released over 40 plays like I have. Also, only two services have more "Net Wins" than I do (+1 for every win, -1.1 for every loss). My current rate of return is 28.4%, meaning that for every dollar you invest on one of my plays you get a 28.4% gain. Only 7 services can claim better than that so far, and again, none of these services have released as many plays as me. Not only that, but none of these services offer their plays for free! We've been fortunate to be so successful so far, let's hope our good fortunes continue! Here's what I've got for tonight:

• Miami Dolphins +3

The big thing scaring people away from the Dolphins in this game is the absence of RB Ronnie Brown. He's been a huge part of their wildcat offense, and without him there is concern that it will struggle to be as effective as before. However, Ricky Williams is a very suitable replacement to Brown, as he's been running great all season, averaging over 5 yards per carry. He should continue to find success, as the Panthers' run defense is one of the worst in the NFL, giving up 4.63 yards per rush attempt. Miami's running game shouldn't have much trouble getting going in this one, opening up the passing game for Henne.

Miami's run defense is also a strength of the team. They've limited opponents to 3.74 yards per carry, 6th best in the NFL. Considering that the main strength of the Panthers this year is running the ball, this is a very welcome sign. Although Miami's pass defense has been abysmal so far this season, the Panthers have had major struggles in their passing game, and if Delhomme is forced to air it out we may see a turnover or two.

Finally, I think Miami holds the special teams advantage in this contest. They're the 5th best team in the league at kickoff and punt returns, while Carolina is 8th worst. When it comes to defending these returns, Miami is right about average, while Carolina is the worst in the league. This leads me to believe that Miami will also win the battle of field position, which should go a long way in making sure they win this game. So, with all of these factors on our side and my system backing the Dolphins, I'll take Miami and hope that they get the job done.

As always, good luck to anyone who decides to wager tonight!

Week 10 Plays

With two winning weeks in a row, it seems that we're starting to get things rolling in the right direction again. We've managed to go 6-3 ATS over that time span, despite the fact that my system has had such a slow start (5-6 ATS). I'm scratching my head a bit over why it's started so badly, but I trust it'll turn itself around sooner or later. So far, system plays that I have not made official plays are 0-3 ATS. Unless some of these system plays that I'm not upgrading start winning, I see no reason to keep posting them up. What good does it good for me to show system plays that just turn out to be losers? I'll monitor it for a week or two more, but I may be making a change in the coming weeks. Without further ado, here are my plays for Week 10:

• Colts/Patriots UNDER 50

I emailed out this play earlier in the week because of how much it jumped off the page at me. The Colts and Patriots have had astounding defenses so far, with Indianapolis having the best scoring efficiency defense in the league, and New England's ranking third best. As I explained a bit last week, I still do not think that Tom Brady is fully back, as the Patriots' red zone struggles continue. I expect this to be yet another week where they have to settle for a lot of field goals. On the Colts' offense side of the ball, this is a one dimensional offense that cannot run the ball very effectively. Teams in the NFL are starting to figure this out, which could be part of the reason Manning only has one touchdown pass over his last two games. I expect this game to stay a bit lower scoring, not turning into the shootout that a lot of people are expecting.

• Green Bay Packers +3
• Cowboys/Packers OVER 47.5

This feels like a letdown game for the Cowboys in my opinion. They're coming off of a huge win on the road against a division rival, and now go on the road again to face a Packers team that I really don't think is as bad as it looks. Despite all of the sacks (with that yardage factored in), Green Bay is still the 8th best team in the league in yards per pass attempt, which I find remarkable. Their run defense is currently doing a great job as well, as they're ranked second in the league in yards per rush attempt allowed. I think they can limit this Cowboys' rushing attack, turning this into a battle through the air, something which would be very helpful to the over. In the end, I think we're going to see a bit of a stinker out of Romo as he has a couple costly turnovers, and the Packers should capitalize and win this game outright in a high scoring affair.

• Dolphins/Bucs OVER 43

Miami's passing offense has been awful as of late, but luckily for them they're going against one of the worst defenses in the NFL. Miami's wildcat offense should see plenty of success against the third worst rushing defense in the NFL, and the passing game should wake up a bit as well. Considering that the Dolphins are the fourth best team in the league at scoring efficiency, I expect them to put up a good number of points. I don't think we'll need more than 14 points out of the Bucs to push this total over, and they should be capable of providing us with that.

• Eagles/Chargers OVER 47

As seen in last week's Giants game, all the Chargers are capable of doing is throwing the ball. They had some costly drops to kill some drives, but I don't think that will be an issue this week. The Eagles may have one of the better defenses in the NFL, but I think they'll struggle a bit against the passing attack of the Chargers. The Eagles also have one of the more explosive offenses in the NFL, but the Chargers' defense isn't nearly as good as the Eagles'. Both teams will be able to put up their fair share of points, this feels like a 24-27 type of game, possibly higher.

ATS System Plays (3-4):

• Packers +3
• Chiefs +1
• Seahawks +9
• Saints -13.5
  

Totals System Plays (2-2):

• Packers/Cowboys OVER 47.5
• Colts/Patriots UNDER 50
• Chiefs/Raiders UNDER 36.5
• Dolphins/Bucs OVER 43
• Eagles/Chargers OVER 47
  

As always, good luck to everyone this week!

Thursday Night System Play

For tonight's game, my system has Chicago +3.5. I'm not upgrading this to an official play, but I just thought everyone would be interested to know what it's picking. Good luck to anyone who makes a play on tonight's game!

Week 9 Monday Night Football Play

After flip-flopping a bit, I've decided to release a play tonight. We'll see if we can salvage a winning week after yet another bad break turned a potential 3-1 week into a 2-2 one (I'm looking at your Carolina.... shame on you for not turning it into a one score game in the waning minutes. A field goal would have given us the over. Fire your coach already). Tonight, I'm really liking Denver/Pitt UNDER 41. When Denver is on offense, it all starts with the run. A big part of their struggles scoring points against the Ravens was because they couldn't get their run game going, and tonight it won't be much easier for them going against the 8th ranked rush defense in the NFL. Pittsburgh has also managed to stay an elite pass defense, despite the absence of Polamalu for a chunk of the season. Currently the Pittsburgh pass defense ranks 7th in the league, and surely will make life difficult for Orton tonight. Considering that Denver's defense currently ranks better than the Steelers' in both these categories, the offense for Pittsburgh will be no cake-walk either. Neither of these offenses really have a serious big play threat, and will have long, clock eating drives when they do score. I think this is a 17-13 type of game, the total should go under no problem for us. Cross your fingers that there aren't defensive touchdowns! Good luck tonight guys!

Week 9 Picks

Let me lead off by apologizing that I forgot to put last week's plays up on the blog. For those of you who get my emails that wasn't much of an issue, but for some others it could have been. Week 8 was the first week of my system running, and while system plays went 3-3, the plays I upgraded to being official plays went 3-1. For those of you who didn't see my plays last week, you can find full documentation of my plays here.

Week 9 is an interesting week, with my system not finding nearly as much value in the lines as it normally does. However, with all of the plays that my system has generated this week, I've got a high enough confidence in each to make them official plays. I spent the week looking for additional plays I'd like to add, but I don't see a ton of value out there this week aside from what my system has already identified. So, we're going to have yet another week of just 4 plays, let's hope it goes just as well if not better than last week. Here's what I've got:

• Miami +10.5

I'm still not a believer that Brady is back, as the Titans absolutely lay down against the Patriots in Week 6 and Tampa Bay has one of the worst secondaries in the NFL. Aside from these two games, we've still seen nothing out of Brady to indicate that he's back to old form. Although Miami's pass defense is 6th worst in the league in pass yards per attempt allowed, they managed to hold the Saints down in the first half of that game by dialing up the pressure. I expect them to do similarly to Brady, and I don't think he'll be able to adjust to it as well as the Saints did late in the game.

Meanwhile, New England is 9th worst in the league at rushing yards per attempt allowed. Considering that they're going up against the wildcat this weekend, that's not good news for them. I think the Dolphins are able to exploit the Patriots' rush defense, while holding Brady in check for most of the game. Dolphins should keep this one within a touchdown, with an outside shot at stealing it outright.

• Saints/Panthers OVER 51.5

Every time I pick a Saints over it's starting to feel like a square pick, however there's no way to ignore it when the line is set this low. The Saints showed how much they missed Ellis last Monday as Turner had no trouble getting loose, and really ran well for the first time all season. Going against a run first team like Carolina, I think this weakness can be exploited and the Saints are going to have trouble slowing down the Panthers' ground game. Carolina should be able to put up their fair share of points.

We all know what to expect on the Saints' side of the ball. Brees is leading the most potent offense in the NFL, and will certainly make the most of any Saints drives. Brees will rack up the yardage, and so far the Panthers' defense is worst in the league at scoring efficiency. Saints shouldn't be held under 35, while I'd be surprised to see the Panthers fall short of 17. Should be another high scoring game in New Orleans.

• Packers/Bucs OVER 43.5

Here we have the 8th best passing offense in the league going against the worst passing defense in the league. The Packers should have no trouble moving the ball through the air, especially considering that Tampa Bay's defense has the third fewest sacks in the NFL. Sacks have been the main thing slowing the Green Bay offense so far this year, and I don't expect to see many of them on Sunday.

Tampa Bay's offense has been absolutely terrible so far this year, scoring just under 14 points a game. With yet another new quarterback finding the starting lineup, one has to wonder if my system wouldn't be prepared to assess such a change. However, the way I see it, when an offense is doing so badly, how could a change like this make it any worse? If my system likes the over with the dismal numbers we've seen out of Tampa so far, we can only hope that this change makes things better. Even if he turns the ball over 5 times, that'll just mean more short fields for the Packers and more chances to put points on the board. However, I expect Tampa shows a little life on offense and we see a 30-17 type of game.

• Giants/Chargers OVER 47.5

The Giants' secondary has been getting absolutely shredded lately, and they happen to be going against the 4th best passing offense in the league this week. The Chargers have also been the 6th best team in the league at turning their yardage into points, a category that the Giants' defense ranks second to last in. The Chargers have the pieces in place to put on an offensive show on their end of the ball.

The San Diego defense has been equally as bad at limiting opponents yardage from turning into points. They're currently 8th worst in the league at this, a bad sign for them because the Giants' offense is 7th best at pass yards per attempt and 11th at rush yards per attempt. I expect a bounce back effort from the New York offense this week, as they'll have to put up points on the scoreboard to stay in the game. Against this weak Chargers' defense, I don't expect that to be a problem and this game should be an easy over.

ATS System Plays (2-3):

• Miami +10.5

This is the first week I've ever seen my system only have one ATS play. This is not the norm and I don't expect to see it again any time soon.

Totals System Plays (1-0):

• Saints/Panthers OVER 51.5
• Packers/Bucs OVER 43.5
• Giants/Chargers OVER 47.5

As always, good luck to everyone this week!

System Ready to Kick Off

Let me start by apologizing for a ho-hum last few weeks. 5-7 over a three week span is awfully disappointing, however given that we started so hot we're still sitting on a 20-10 ATS mark. I'm not incredibly surprised over this as I feel that the first three weeks are awfully soft lines. Things have gotten a bit more difficult now, and we've had a few bad breaks along the way hurt us these last few weeks. Special thanks to Russell for turning the ball over on his own 4 yard line and 1 yard line to successfully kill our under play. Considering that this was my first year tracking my record with no system aid, I'm very pleased with the overall result. I wish things could have been a little more consistent, but 67% through 30 plays is not bad at all. For those of you who follow my money management advice, your bankroll is looking pretty good right now. For those of you parlaying, and I hope that isn't many of you, these last few weeks have really hurt.

So, from here on out, we're going to have my statistical system helping us pick the winners. Last year when I was first using it we hit 60% from Week 8 until the Superbowl, with a few really good weeks and really bad weeks mixed in there. The goal this year is to eliminate those really bad weeks. Although my system overall hits at about a 60% clip, I'd like to weed out enough losers to maintain a 67% mark. I've thought about how I want to go about posting my personal plays and system plays, and here's what I've decided upon. My personal plays will continue as usual. I'll post up any plays I like for the week, the majority of which will probably agree with my system plays. I'll also post separately all of my system plays (excluding ones affected by injuries), these will not include write ups and like I said before, some will overlap personal plays. I'll track the record of all system plays separately as well just to keep track of how it's doing, but personal plays are still what I recommend you all pay the most attention to. However, if you have a play you're really liking that agrees with my system, you may want to consider it. Good luck to us going forward guys, let's have a great last few months of the season!

Week 7 Plays

Here's what I'm liking for this week guys:

• Chicago Bears +1

Statistically, these are very similar teams. However, there are a few advantages that the Bears have that I think swing this game. Short and sweet version: the Bears have a much better return game, they convert their yards into points better (Given all of the redzone turnovers so far this season that speaks volumes), and their pass defense is much better. I think these pieces lead to a victory by the Bears on the road.

• New York/Oakland UNDER 34.5

It would be pretty easy to make an argument for Oakland being the worst offense in the league right now. They're 2nd worst in yards per pass attempt, 4th worst in yards per rush attempt, and 4th worst at turning their yards into points. They're the only team in the league that is bottom 8 in all of these categories, and a tough Jets' defense will do them no favors. I don't expect the loss of Kris Jenkins to affect the Jets much in this one. How does Oakland top 10 points in this one?

As far as the Jets are concerned, they're middle of the pack in terms of passing yards per attempt and turning yardage into points, their big strength thus far has been running the ball. Oakland has a middle of the pack defense on all levels, but always seems to play a bit more inspired at home. With a struggling Mark Sanchez, I don't see how the Jets can top 24 points. This game should go under for us, despite the line being set so low.

• New Orleans/Miami OVER 47.5

A lot of people are talking like this could be the week that the Saints flounder. They're coming off of a huge win, they're on the road, Miami has an effective rushing attack that should confuse the Saints, the pieces are in place for an upset. However, I simply cannot overlook the fact that Miami is 4th worst in the league currently at yards per pass attempt allowed. Drew Brees and company will absolutely eat them alive. The question is how well Miami will be able to keep drives alive to keep the ball out of Brees' hands. Miami has the 5th best rushing attack in the league, while New Orleans' rushing defense is middle of the pack. Perhaps Miami can spring an upset and top the Saints, but one way or another I can't see this point total going under. I don't like taking totals plays that the majority of the public is on, but the public should get rewarded in this case with a high scoring game.

• San Francisco/Houston OVER 44

Houston is proving every week that they simply cannot run the ball. They have the 3rd worst rushing attack in the NFL, and are up against the 2nd best rush defense in the NFL so far. To me, that looks like a recipe for them to move the ball through the air this game, keeping the clock from running too much. Schaub should also make a dumb mistake or two during the game, which most likely will result in some easy SF points.

The San Francisco offense has had trouble moving the ball through the air so far, but despite struggling to gain some yardage they're still very efficient at turning their yards into points (although some of this can be contributed to special teams and defensive points). However, a defense that has been that opportunistic in the past should continue to be in the future. San Fran also sees the return of Gore to their lineup this week, a huge plus given that they're playing against one of the worst rushing defenses in the NFL. Not to mention that they'll have yet another weapon on the field for the first time this week with Crabtree. All of the stats pointed to the over despite no Gore the last few weeks and no Crabtree the whole season, and these two factors will only help the over become more likely.

Good luck this week guys! System kicks off next week!

Monday Night Recap and Moving Forward

I needed a day to cool off after that loss we took on Monday night. Three special teams touchdowns are a great way to kill an under, and turn a potential 3-1 week into a 2-2 one. When I take an under I normally like to have about a touchdown worth of error available in the event of a freak play, when there are three though there is simply nothing you can do. Take 2 of those return tds away and we're looking at 43 total points, but unfortunately that's not how the game works and we have to live with it. I'm a bit frustrated as I find myself 3-5 ATS over the last two weeks, but I'm trying to focus on the fact that we easily could be looking at 5-3 instead. These bad breaks will even out in the end.

I've got one more week of capping games on my own, followed by the start of my system plays in Week 8. I'm still deciding how I want to handle these plays and the release of them, I've flip flopped all year on what I'll do and likely will continue to the next week and a half. I think what I'm going to wind up doing is holding back the system plays that I don't agree with, and after a few weeks if I see that I'm leaving too many winners on the shelf I'll make them all available to you. I think that makes more sense right now than tracking a few different records and trying to keep it all sorted out. Although I'm disappointed with the last two weeks, to be sitting at 18-8 ATS with only one week to go before my system plays is certainly the position we want to be in. I'll right the ship this coming week, and then we should be ready for a pretty nice stretch from Week 8 until the Superbowl!

Week 6 MNF Play

Decent Sunday, getting back on the winning side of things with a 2-1 day. I'm a bit disappointed in the day though as I left three other winners on the shelf, you can see here on the card I put together for one of my contests. I'd like to think had I had my normal preparation I would have let these plays through and shared a couple more with you guys. I will rarely be leaving town with no internet access though, so this shouldn't be a problem that pops up often.

I've spent the last day reviewing the play I'm going to release tonight, and I've decided it's worthy of being a late addition. If this play were to lose a winning week would turn into one where we lose a little juice, but as disappointing as that would be I can't ignore this opportunity and I'm going to go for it. Here's what I like for tonight:

• Broncos/Chargers UNDER 44

This is a pretty straight forward pick, as the Broncos' defense has been spectacular so far at shutting down potent offenses. They currently sit at 4th best in the league in yards per pass attempt allowed, and 6th best in yards per rush attempt allowed (especially sweet against this SD rushing attack, which is worst in the league). San Diego will likely be trying to move the ball through the air the majority of this game, which they will learn is a challenge much like Brady and Romo have in the previous two weeks. Even if the Chargers are able to rack up some yards, the Broncos still are by far the best in the league at scoring efficiency defense. The Chargers will have trouble converting any yards they gain into touchdowns.

On Denvers' side of the ball, they've been doing a great job of generating yards, but they're 8th worst in the league at turning those yards into points. I acknowledge that San Diego is also 8th worst in this category on defense, however I think coming off of the bye week slightly more healthy their defense will be looking a bit better than it has so far this season.

I think this game will have it's fair share of mistakes and points left on the field, so the under is the obvious play in my mind. Good luck to anyone who bets on tonight's game!

Week 6 Plays

Hey guys, putting out plays early this week due to heading out of town and not having computer access. I was a bit worried about this originally, but I'm actually feeling pretty good about the plays I've settled on this week. Hopefully we can put an ugly Week 5 behind us and get our momentum moving forward again. Here's what I'm liking this week:

• Green Bay Packers -13

It's kind of rare that I go for the double digit spreads, however this is one that jumps out at me as a good investment opportunity. We've got the Packers coming fresh off of a bye, going against a Lions team that will likely be without Stafford or Calvin Johnson. I know that protection issues have hampered Aaron Rodgers and the Packers' offense all season, but it's looking like Chad Clifton will be returning to their line this week and that will definitely help them out. The Green Bay offense is 6th in the league at turning their yards into points, and I expect that the deck is stacked in their favor to gain plenty of yards and put up plenty of points this coming week.

• Chiefs/Redskins UNDER 37.5

Neither of these teams offenses are good, and both have respectable defenses. The Redskins are 4th worst in the league at turning their yards into points, and although the Chiefs are middle of the pack in this category, they're 2nd worst at gaining passing yards and 6th worst at gaining rushing yards. Their offense simply cannot move the ball. With a slightly above average Redskins' defense, I'm willing to overlook the weaker KC defense and assume the Redskins won't top 20 points, which should be enough to win them the game. In my opinion, this is a very solid looking under.

• Seattle Seahawks -3

It's kind of rough trying to find stats in this matchup since the Seahawks have only played two games with Hasselbeck, but their offense is so much more potent with him in the lineup it's unbelievable. Arizona is still not playing too well, struggling to run the ball and turn their yards into points. Not to mention that they have the worst passing defense in the NFL still after their showdown with the Texans last weekend, something that Hasselbeck should be more than capable of exploiting. One aspect of the Seattle game that hasn't been affected by Hasselbeck's absence is their defense, which is 4th best in the league at preventing opponents from turning yardage into points. I think Seattle wins this week, taking the game by at least a touchdown.

That's it for this week guys, good luck with your plays!

Week 5 Sunday Plays

Time for Week 5 guys, another week of some tight lines and a few that look like traps. I've got a little bit more action this week than last week, coming up with four plays total. I feel pretty good about these plays, I definitely thought they were the best 4 out there, hopefully it works out so that we get a 3-1 week at worst. However, nothing is guaranteed in this business and I again want to remind everyone that just because I went 15-3 on my first 18 plays doesn't mean I'll keep that pace up! As always, manage your money wisely. On to this week's plays:

• SF 49ers -2
• SF/Atlanta UNDER 40.5
  

This is a very interesting game this week, with Atlanta coming off of a bye and Frank Gore still out for the 49ers. The main philosophy driving this pick for me is how much worse the Falcons were last year on the road, and their brutal loss to the Patriots a couple of weeks ago led me to believe that nothing has changed. They've struggled to get Turner running well all year, and the SF defense will certainly be another challenge for him.

Atlanta has been a middle of the pack defense so far, and although San Francisco doesn't exactly light it up on offense they usually are able to put some quality drives together to get points on the board. Their defense is stellar at creating turnovers as well, something that could also set them up for some easy points. I think both offenses will struggle to move the ball in this one, but in the end San Fransisco will come out with a win in a hard fought, low scoring game.

• Houston Texans +5

I'm not ready to give up on the Texans yet. Although they benefited from playing the lowly Raiders last week, bringing their defensive numbers to a little bit more reasonable of a level, I'm still aware that their defense just isn't good. However, Arizona is not playing anywhere near the level they played last year. Turnovers have cost them big so far, and like years in the past their rushing offense is putting up very mediocre numbers.

The red flag here that makes me go with the Texans is how awful the Arizona pass defense has been. Arizona has allowed 7.2 yards per pass attempt against them, something that I fully expect the Texans to take advantage of. Although Arizona will put up their fair share of points, Houston will be able to answer without much problem. Not to mention that the Texans are finally starting to get Steve Slaton going as he's been running much better these last two games with 33 carries for 141 yards. This game could get pretty high scoring, although a 24-21 type of game wouldn't surprise me either. I think that worst case scenario has Arizona winning by a field goal. The Texans should cover in this one no problem.

• Patriots/Broncos UNDER 41

This play jumped out pretty quickly to me this week. Here we have a Patriots offense that still hasn't done anything to show me that they've gelled, going against one of the best defenses in the NFL right now. The Patriots should have lost last week's game, as they didn't look great on offense, but got bailed out by a few dumb penalties by the Ravens that kept their drives alive. Meanwhile, we have a Denver offense here that isn't the most explosive offense in the world, going against a middle of the pack defense. I'd be very surprised if we didn't see Denver trying to run quite a bit on the Patriots and wind clock to keep the ball out of Brady's hands, which of course will aid in keeping the point total in this game down. These teams are also the 8th and 11th worst in the league at turning their yards into points, so we may see them settling for field goals quite a bit (Not to mention that Denver's defense is best in the league in this category). We should have a low scoring battle ahead of us in Denver tomorrow, and I think the under has a pretty high chance of coming through for us.
Good luck this week guys!

Week 4 Sunday Plays

I know some of you will be disappointed that this isn't another week with 6 or 7 plays, but I really think that this is a tight set of lines this week and good value is hard to find. There will be weeks like this, but not nearly as many as weeks where I see a lot more out there that I like. Once my system is up and running, we'll have plenty to choose from. Here's what I'm liking this week:

• 49ers/Rams UNDER 37.5

This play caught my eye from the beginning of the week and never left my radar. The Rams actually showed some life last weekend on offense with Boller at the helm, but it was against a suspect Packers defense that is middle of the pack in both passing and rushing yards per attempt. The 49ers defense this week should return the Rams to the familiar single digit scoring that they saw their first two games of the year. Steven Jackson is the focal point of this Rams' offense, and with the 49ers allowing only 3 ypc this season and containing AP fairly well last week, it isn't looking like Jackson will find much room to run come Sunday. If forced into turning to the pass, the Rams already find themselves in trouble as they are the third worst team in the league in yards per pass attempt. The 49ers are 9th in the league against the pass, so again, Boller shouldn't have a very easy time keeping the chains moving.

I'm optimistic the 49ers won't push this total over given the loss of Gore from their offense. Although Coffee certainly is a capable backup, he doesn't bring the same explosiveness to the offense as Gore does. It's tough to say what Gore would have done had he played all of last week against the Vikings, but I feel fairly confident he could have managed better than the 2 ypc Coffee ran for. St. Louis has a pretty bad defense, but the conservative nature of the 49ers probably ensures that we won't see a lot of quick scores. I see the Rams scoring anywhere from 3-14 points, while I see the 49ers range being in the area of 14-21. This total should stay under, and hopefully does so easily so we won't be sweating it out in the final quarter.

• Denver Broncos +3

I've been hearing a lot of love for the Cowboys this week, but the Broncos were another team that immediately found themselves on my radar this week. Although the Broncos have benefited from playing the Browns and Raiders, and won on a lucky tip play at Cinci, they've still done their job and looked good doing it. Dallas comes into this game also having played a soft Panthers team and soft Bucs team, also doing their job against those two weak opponents. They also played the Giants tough at home, but came out losers in that one due to a rough outing by Romo.

Here is what's so interesting about this Dallas team. Dallas finds themselves in a unique situation where they're top 8 in the league in both yards per pass attempt and yards per rush attempt, and bottom 8 in both of those categories on defense. Considering the poor TB and Carolina offenses, I find this very alarming as they try to shut down the Denver attack. You can bet Denver will be able to put together a lot of long drives marching the ball down the field, keeping the ball out of Romo's hands. Meanwhile, even when the Cowboys do get the ball, their high flying offense will be tested by the #1 pass defense in the league and the #7 rush defense.

The bottom line is that Denver has been doing their job on offense and should continue to do so against this terrible Cowboys' defense. The Cowboys however, will find themselves facing a test and may struggle more to get points on the board. I think Denver wins this game fairly easily, taking it by a touchdown.

These are easily my favorite two plays this week, I'm still deciding if there is one more play I want to make or not. If I do add an additional play I'll make sure everyone is informed about it one way or another. If I don't add a play, good luck to all of you this week and I hope you have a successful Week 4!

Week 3 Recap

Another winning week in the books as a 5-2 Sunday brings our record this year up to 13-3 ATS! We've certainly had a great start, and with every winning week we find ourselves one week closer to having the statistical system to back our numbers as well. Although right now it doesn't look like we need it, it'll certainly help us keep the winners consistently coming. Although I'm excited to have turned out another winning week, the public absolutely killed the books this week, of the 15 games played so far 12 of them were won by teams the majority of the public backed. In my past experience, the week after one's like this is when people get absolutely hammered. We saw a little bit of that in Week 2, and I wouldn't be surprised to see it again next week, so tread forward with caution. Obviously those are the weeks we need to weather the storm, I haven't taken a look at the lines yet but I'm leaning towards a much more conservative approach next week. However, if I see value I simply can't ignore, I won't rule out a weekend with a good number of plays again.

I won't be making a play on tonight's game, I'll pack in our third straight winning week and get the process started towards giving us a fourth straight! Good luck to any of you who decide to wager tonight!

Week 3 is finally here, bringing with it a lot of very interesting match-ups. After doing my usual routine throughout the week to decide which plays I like and narrow them down, I wound up with a few more plays then I expected. Although a couple of these have the looks of traps and it makes a a little nervous, I'm going to go ahead and ride them and hope for the best. When everything is said and done, I just can't make a case for why they shouldn't be a play, and if I think I see value there I'm going to take it. I'd be stunned if I saw another undefeated week, so please don't take these plays and throw them into parlays and hope for the best. This is a much tighter set of lines then in Week 1. As usual, I recommend just flat betting these plays and looking ahead to where you want to be at the end of the season, rather than where you want to be after this week. So, here are the plays I'm looking at for this week:

• New York Giants -6.5

The only way I see the Giants losing this game or failing to cover is if they suffer a letdown after their dramatic win over the Cowboys last week. However, this hasn't been characteristic of the Giants' teams of the past couple years. The last two seasons, when the Giants have been coming off of a win against a division opponent, and faced a non-division opponent the next week, they've still cruised, going 3-0 and winning by just under 20 ppg (Against the Rams and Ravens last year, and the Jets in 2007). Against a terrible Tampa team, I'll trust that this team has similar character to the teams of years past and doesn't suffer the letdown I'm slightly worried about. I expect the Giants to roll over the Bucs, cruising to a win by at least two touchdowns.

• Pittsburgh/Cincinnati UNDER 37

For the first time in a while, the Bengals look like they have a good defense. A big part of their success shutting down the Green Bay attack was the constant pressure they had on Rogers, and the Steelers' offensive line isn't much better. The Steelers have already surrendered 6 sacks in two games, while Cincinnati has pummeled their opponents for 9 sacks in two games. With the running game struggling, the Steelers will likely be a little more throw heavy, giving the Bengals more chances to get to Big Ben. With their QB under constant pressure, the Steelers shouldn't be able to put many good drives together, keeping their point total down.

As far as the Bengals' offense goes, I don't expect much better points wise. Their yards per pass and rush attempt are nothing spectacular, and Pittsburgh has absolutely slammed the door on the run so far this year. I expect the Bengals will still try, but they'll eventually have to turn to an inconsistent Palmer to try to get them to score. This should stay a low scoring affair, with both teams struggling to get in the end zone and coming away with a lot of field goals. I expect a 20-16 type of game at the highest.

• Chicago Bears -2

It took me a while to warm up to this game, but I simply cannot ignore all of the injuries plaguing the Seahawks right now. Hasselbeck is unlikely to play, and Wallace should struggle against a Bears defense that has been effective against the pass so far (6th in the league in yards per pass attempt). The Seahawks also will likely struggle running the ball, setting them up in must throw situations and playing into the Bears' hands. On offense, I expect the Bears to work hard to get the RB Matt Forte going, who has been shut down thus far. Against a Seattle defense that has injury problems and got shredded last week by the 49ers, I wouldn't be surprised to see success out of Forte finally. Once the run game is established, the Bears can let Cutler loose and put it away. Bears should take this one by a touchdown.

• Denver Broncos -1
• Denver/Oakland UNDER 36.5
  

Denver finds themselves in a position to start 3-0, something few could have predicted. Although the Raiders' defense has looked good so far this year, their offense has been absolutely abysmal. Russel has played very inconsistent, seeming to wake up for only the fourth quarter each week. Meanwhile, despite keeping the Chiefs to very few points last week, Oakland got dominated in total yardage. Their defense managed to do the job and get the Chiefs off the field, but I think that the Broncos are a team much more equipped to take advantage of scoring opportunities that come their way. Also, despite Oakland's struggle to rack up yards thus far, they've done a great job turning the yards into points. This however meets with the strength of the Denver defense, who is best in the league right now at keeping yardage from being converted into points. The Raiders' offense isn't much better than the Browns' right now, and Denver should have no problem keeping Oakland's point total in single digits. I see Denver scoring anywhere from 14-24 points, while Oakland struggles to find the right side of 10.

• Houston Texans -3.5
• Houston/Jacksonville OVER 47
  

I've flip flopped on this game all week, unable to decide if I wanted to make it a play or not. Houston seems to have the clear advantage here, and the line seems like it should be more in the neighborhood of Houston -7. However, we find ourselves facing a line of just 3.5 points, and we must wonder if we're walking into a trap with this one. I don't necessarily believe that Vegas sets lines with the purpose of trapping people, I think we just create the traps ourselves. Right now everyone is impressed with Houston's gutty come from behind win, with thoughts of Schaub's 4 touchdowns still fresh in their minds. Meanwhile, the Jaguars had an underwhelming effort against Arizona, and got thrown all over for the second game in a row. If I had to guess why this line was so low, I'd assume that Vegas expects it to be a high scoring affair with MJD having a monster day. Houston's pass and run defense are absolutely abysmal, giving up 7.4 yards per pass attempt, and 6.32 yards per rush attempt. Not all of those rushing numbers are because of Chris Johnson either, the Jets tore them up on the ground in Week 1 as well.

This game reminds me of the Week 1 Saints vs. Lions game, I have a very similar feeling on it. I'm confident that the points will be there on the Texans' end, if they fell short of 27 I'd be very surprised, they may even go over that. On the Jacksonville end, we know that they're going against a Texans' defense that has been very bad lately, and the opportunity for them to put up points sure appears to be there. If this game goes over, it'll be because Jacksonville did scored on their end and potentially covered. If it goes under, it's probably because the Texans' defense bore down and they blew out the Jags. I think this is another great situation where worst case scenario has us eating a little juice and going 1-1, with a very good possibility of the total going over and the Texans covering anyways, giving us a 2-0 record for this game.

I may come back with a Monday Night Football play, I'm strongly considering it right now. If I do make a play I'll send out an email Monday afternoon. Good luck this week guys, hopefully we find ourselves with a profit for a third week in a row!

Week 2 Recap and Thoughts Going Forward

Hey guys, before I get into my recap of the first couple weeks, I just want to let you all know that I won't be making a play on the Colts/Dolphins game. I was considering Miami +3, but it simply isn't a play where it looks like there is any value in making the bet. We'll pick our spots and move ahead to Week 3. Every now and then I'll send out a little recap of what's been happening lately, as well as share some thoughts on the games. I may make it a weekly thing, it'll probably just depend on how much I feel like I have to say and how busy I am.

Sunday turned out to be an okay day, going 2-1 and profiting once again. It's no 6-0, but I'm happy to end up again and I'll go heavier again next time I see lots of value out there. The New Orleans game was close at the half, with the Eagles offense looking good throughout the second quarter. However, two turnovers deep in their own territory early in the second half quickly put the game out of reach. My fault for trusting Kolb, although I'm still not convinced the Saints will consistently get the job done on the road. There may be another opportunity in the future to try and exploit them. The Falcons and Ravens sure made things exciting with their lack of defense, but they both did the job for us in the end and gave us a couple nice wins.

So far, I've got to say I'm pretty happy with how things are going. I've posted an 8-1 record so far without the help of my system, and I've been doing a great job of weeding out potential plays that would wind up losing. When the lines come out every Tuesday I run through them and pick out the ones that catch my eye, and then narrow them down as the week goes on. The plays I've weeded out are a nasty 6-8, so I'm going to keep on taking this route and continue to find you guys the best possible value.

Although it is frustrating to only make 3 plays in a week, I'm going to go ahead and keep doing it as long as I don't see any value. I know a lot of you weren't yet on board for the 6-0 week, so you aren't quite as ahead as some of us. A 2-1 week doesn't feel like much, but do that every week of the season and you've got a 42-21 record. Sometimes I tend to focus too much on the short term, but if I just keep that goal of being well ahead in the end in mind, it helps calm some of my restlessness. We're in a sprint, not a marathon, so stay away from those teasers and parlays guys. Those are just going to set you back in the long run, it's very difficult to consistently come out ahead using those.

Of course, every week won't only have 3 picks. Until I kick off my system in Week 8, I anticipate a range of 3-6 picks a week, there may be a week or two along the way where we see a little more or less than that. It really depends on how good the lines are looking. Once my system kicks off, I'll have a separate section where I track of all system plays that I do not make official. This is for you guys who may want to pick through them and see what you like that my system backs, but remember that I'm leaving them out for a reason. Sometimes they'll be right, sometimes they'll be wrong, but I hope I can do a good job of narrowing them down.

That's about all I've got guys, we'll keep chugging along and try to continue building up some momentum for later in the season. Looking forward to a great Week 3, I'll have my plays out for you all around the usual time! For those of you betting College Football, good luck until next Sunday!

Week 2 Sunday Plays

Week 1 sure treated us well, with my posted plays going a stunning 6-0 ATS. It's safe to say I had the right read on all of those games, with the sole exception maybe being the lucky cover by the Packers. I thought they could win a little more comfortably than that, but in the end a win is a win. The lucky breaks will even out along the way, I'm sure my followers from last year can remember a couple brutal beats we took (Losing an over because of a botched extra point is still the most painful).

As much as I'd like to dwell on my Week 1 performance though, it's time to move on to Week 2 and get the job done again. This week is a much tougher set of lines, yet I've managed to come up with a few plays that I feel pretty good about. I actually think Vegas doesn't mind the weak lines in Week 1, because they know that the public will go heavier the next week when things get crazier. Less than 10% of sports bettors can manage to turn a profit in the long run, and there's a reason for that. The public did great in Week 1, and a lot of people will find that they aren't that lucky this week. So, as usual, I recommend good money management with your bets, my 6-0 Week 1 does not indicate that I'll have a winning Week 2 as well. Remember that right now these games are just my humble opinion and I do not yet have my system running to help me out, so there is no guarantee I can perform well again this week. Every week I can only guarantee that I'll do everything in my power to pick some winners, with that being said here's what I've got this week:

• Philadelphia Eagles PK
  

The first play I'm liking this week is Eagles PK. The general public perception right now is that no Mcnabb = No win for the Eagles, plus that Drew Brees has entered beast mode and will throw big points on the board as usual. With no Mcnabb, how could the Eagles possibly keep up? Well, there are a few skeletons in the Saints' closet that I'm not willing to ignore, making Philly the clear pick for me. For one, the Saints were just a 2-6 road team last year. Their two wins? Against the 2-14 Chiefs and the 0-16 Lions. A big reason for this was a fall in Brees' numbers when he played on the road. Although his yardage was fairly similar to when he played at home, he threw 11 tds to 10 ints (8 tds to 9 ints ignoring the KC and DET games). Compared to his 23 tds to 5 ints at home, not so great.

One game I remember getting burned on last year was betting on the Saints in Week 2. They had just stomped a solid Tampa Bay defense at home, and went on the road to play the Redskins who had struggled mightily on offense in Week 1. The Saints were only 3 point favorites, and everyone and their mother seemed to love them to cover and win handily. After 4 quarters of football, the Saints found themselves losers 29-25. After an average to below average defensive performance against Detroit (I'm not holding the returned fumble for a td against them), I've seen nothing to indicate that this defensive unit is greatly improved. Kolb has been in this league for a while and should be ready to play, not to mention the outside chance Mcnabb plays still.

Maybe the Saints have really turned over a new leaf this year, but until I see something to prove it I have to go against them in this spot. The Eagles are one of the favorites in the NFC with or without Mcnabb, and you can bet that their defense will do it's job and apply the pressure to Brees, forcing some mistakes. It'll probably be a close one, but in the end I see the Eagles coming out on top.

• Baltimore +3

I know it's early in the season and I haven't seen a ton out of the Ravens yet, but I'm pretty certain that this team is the real deal. They were quite impressive in the preseason, and although he only played the Chiefs, Flacco seems to have taken a step forward from where he was last year. The Ravens were a quality team on the road last year, making a nice playoff run beating the Dolphins and Titans on the road, so you know they do not get phased by opposing crowds. I'm also not a believer in this Chargers team, it seems like they get hyped up every year only to finish with a mediocre season. I found myself constantly amazed Monday night at how dominant Oakland seemed over them, they really stole a win in that one.

Although any team can have a bad week at any time, I don't have any reason to believe that last week was just a bad week for San Diego. They are a team with a history of underachieving, and they find themselves without several key starters this coming Sunday. I expect an improvement in the Raven's defense as they come out looking to prove that they're a force to be reckoned with in the AFC, and I really can't see the Chargers having that special of a game. Although the public's money is on the Ravens, I don't mind that and I think this is a great spot to bet them. All in all, I don't see how the Chargers offense will be able to keep the chains moving, or how their defense will be able to slow down the Ravens' attack. So, Ravens +3 should come through, with a good chance that they take this one outright.

• Atlanta Falcons -6
  

This line almost seems suspicious, yet I cannot ignore the value. We all remember the 12-4 Panthers of last year, a powerful team among the NFC favorites that wound up flopping. Maybe that's why this line is so low, because people expect that these are the Panthers that show up on Sunday. Well, even if the Panthers come ready to play at the level they did last year, I expect it still won't be enough for them to cover this spread.

The 2008 Panthers struggled to win on the road, posting a 4-4 mark. Of those 4 wins, not a single team was over .500! When they were on the road they scored a td less per game, while allowing an additional 5 ppg to be scored on them. But this only tells part of the story. If you remove those cupcake teams they played against, their story becomes much more dismal. You're now looking at an 0-4 mark on the road, with an average loss of about 14 ppg. One of these losses came to this very Falcons team, when the Falcons beat up on them 45-28.

So, even if the Panthers can get their 2008 swagger back, it seems like they still don't have a ton to look forward to. I also reviewed Atlanta's stellar home numbers in last week's write up, further enforcing the strength of this pick. Last week Atlanta proved their run last year was no fluke, taking it to a quality Miami defense and forcing their offense into several uncharacteristic turnovers. This is especially impressive given how well Miami took care of the ball all of last year. With a turnover prone Delhomme coming to Atlanta, I'd expect the Falcons to capitalize on a few more opportunities for a takeaway. Against a Panthers' defense that isn't as good as the defense the Falcons faced last week, I expect Atlanta to score without much difficulty as well. When all is said and done, look for a comfortable Falcons win.

Best of luck to everyone this week, hopefully we can make it another winning week!

Week 1 MNF

After some consideration I've decided I will not be making any plays on tonight's games. I have absolutely no read on the Oakland vs. San Diego game, so obviously that's one I'm staying away from. The other game, Patriots vs. Bills, is a much tougher one for me to avoid. Over 47 is a very tempting play for me, but I just don't feel like I know enough about these teams yet to go ahead and make it a play. In the end, I just have too many unanswered questions so I'm going to pack in the 6-0 week and get to it next weekend!

Week 1 Sunday Plays

Opening weekend is finally here, and I believe that I'm ready to make it a profitable one. Before I post my plays I'd like to issue a couple reminders one more time. I do not have a proven track record picking games without the use of my system. I have done it before, but I never closely tracked my record, so I can't give you guys any idea what to expect. Given that I am unproven and that it is early in the season (so there are more unknowns), I urge you to go lighter than you normally would if you feel the need to tail me. The last thing I want is for someone to take a huge hit the first week because they don't know all of the facts. Now that we've got that out of the way though, let's get on to the picks!

• San Francisco 49ers +6

I've seen absolutely nothing out of the Arizona first string offense or defense this preseason to give me a good feeling about them heading into the season, and SF always seems to play Arizona tough. Last season when SF played in Arizona they nearly stole one outright, having a chance at a touchdown in the final seconds to win it. They squandered the opportunity with poor clock management, but all the pieces are still there for them to do it again. Had this game been played last season, when Arizona was clicking, my system still would have picked SF +6. I think that Arizona is faltering right now, and SF is on the rise compared to last year, making this pick that much sweeter. I wouldn't be surprised to see SF win this game, but I'll take them at +6 and expect at least the cover.

• Atlanta Falcons -4

Atlanta is just a different team when they play at home. They had their fair share of struggles on the road last year, but they scored almost 10 ppg more at home, with an average margin of victory of 10 pts. Atlanta has looked spectacular all preseason, and although Miami was a pretty good road team, I think they're much more likely to take a step back this year. I'll count on Atlanta to win this game by a TD or more and cover.

• Arizona/SF UNDER 46

This pick goes along with some of my comments in the SF pick. Arizona's offense is not looking good, and the possibility that Boldin sits out makes this play look that much sweeter. SF is a run first team, and should try to attack with Gore and wind some clock to keep Warner off the field. Also, you can bet they'll look to take Warner's weapons away and force Arizona to come out and beat the with the run. In order for this total to go over, you figure we'd have to see 6 tds and a couple field goals between the two teams. I'd be shocked if these teams found the end zone 6 combined times, so I think the under is the obvious play.

• Green Bay Packers -4

The Packers have looked very impressive this preseason, with every aspect of their game looking great. Although the Bears finally have a capable QB at the helm, he still doesn't have anybody to throw the ball to. The Bears' defense is also quite overrated in my opinion, and simply will not be able to handle Green Bay's passing attack. This game could get pretty high scoring, and the Bears won't be able to keep up.

• New Orleans Saints -13.5

Although I'm a bit hesitant to take such a large favorite, all the signs point to a Saints blowout win. Last season the Saints absolutely pounded Detroit when they played them, and should have no problem solving the defense again. The only question that I have is whether or not Detroit can keep up with the Saints' scoring. With Stafford getting the start, he should be able to give the Lions some life on offense. However, one could argue that he didn't have a single great preseason game, and I like the chances of the Saints picking off a pass or two. With those kinds of mistakes and the New Orleans' improved defense, I see a blowout victory.

• Saints/Lions OVER 48

This pick serves a couple of purposes. First of all, I think there is a good chance that we see a 38-20 type of game and the total goes over easily. I have no doubt in my mind that the Saints will put up points on their end, the question is whether or not the Lions will be able to score as well. In my mind, if the total were to go under it would be because of the Lions' short comings, and the Saints -13.5 bet should have been a winner. If the total were to go over, the Lions put up their share of points then, and they may have covered the spread. I can't see the combination of this over and the Saints -13.5 bet doing any worse than going 1-1, I'll gladly eat the juice if that happens. I think the smart play here is to take the over as well, and you're looking at a good chance of both plays winning, with a worst case scenario of 1 losing.

That's it for my plays this week, I wish you all a successful Week 1!

Some Week 1 Info

I just wanted to let you all know that I will not be making a play on Thursday Night's opening game. I have a slight lean towards Pittsburgh -6, but I simply do not see enough value in the play to consider it a good investment. I'll continue working towards some solid plays for Sunday for you all, I expect to have decided on my plays by Friday or Saturday. Best of luck to those of you who make a play Thursday!

Some Betting Advice for the Coming Season

One key aspect of gambling is knowing how to maximize your profits. I thought it would be worth a write up to explain to you all the approach I will be taking to maximize mine. I will be entering my third year of NFL wagering this following year, and I have had mixed results my first two. For my first two years of wagering, I found myself addicted to the parlay. Straight wagers simply didn't increase my bankroll fast enough for my liking. The first year I used parlays I actually was quite successful, increasing my initial bankroll by 12x by the end of the year. I took this parlay mindset into last season's wagering, and to say it didn't go as well would be an understatement. You all followed along with me last year, I hit 61% of my plays which is pretty damn good for the NFL. However, my parlays always seemed to lose a key play, and I would find myself ending 4-2 weeks barely up or even down a bit. Plus, any week that was especially bad would cripple my bankroll. Although it is an exciting type of wagering and there are wild swings week to week, it simply is not a consistent way to win. That is the major risk you run with parlays, any bad week could kill you. Even with a system backing my plays, there will be occasional weeks where we aren't satisfied with the results.

I've decided that although there is high reward for parlays, they simply will not be worth my time this year. I am not entering this NFL season thinking about it as gambling, I will be thinking about it as investing. I am going to put a larger percentage of my bankroll on my wagers than normal, knowing that the results will be there at the end of the season. If you are looking to double your bankroll every week or make monumental gains, I would strongly advise against it. Rather, invest a chunk of money that you are comfortable risking, bet a set % of your initial bankroll, and perhaps reassess how much you'd like to be wagering every 4 weeks. Anybody can have a bad week or two, it is the nature of gambling. However, given the strength of my system and my confidence in my own plays, I strongly doubt that we will ever look at a 4 week span that we didn't profit in.

I need to get out of my "Make money now" mindset, and focus on having a nice payday at the end of the season in February. I was 57-36 last season, had I just straight wagered $110 on all of those plays at -110 odds I would have found myself up $1740. Instead, I found myself down for the year because I wanted to immediate reward of a nice parlay hit. If parlays are your thing and you can be successful with them, by all means continue and I wish you the best. However, if you've struggled with parlays in the past and failed to turn a profit, I suggest you take the same approach as me, realizing the profit will be there at the end of the year.

Although I am very confident about how this upcoming season will go, you all must remember that I am not guaranteeing anything. That has always been my message, past performance does not guarantee future results. There is no guarantee that because I hit 61% last year I will do it again this coming season. I could do better, I could do worse. I just want everyone to be aware I can not promise a profit, I can only promise to put forth my best effort to produce one. I mentioned this before, but again, I've never carefully tracked my personal plays record before. Given that fact, you may want to be cautious these first 7 weeks until I have my system running too. That is completely up to you and how competent you think I am. But at the end of the day, regardless of whether you have had a profitable week or not, realize that it was you who made the plays. Rather than just blindly tailing every play I recommend, you may want to just bet the ones you agree with. Do not leave your comfort zone with your wagering, and please don't risk more than you can afford to lose. I wish you all the best this coming season! Plays for Week 1 will be coming soon!