Got the week off to a good start with a win on Thanksgiving, hopefully we can close this week out with some solid plays to make it a very profitable week. I've got a few plays I'm really confident in, so hopefully these will come through for us. Here's what I like this weekend:
- New York Jets -3
- Jets/Panthers UNDER 41.5
Although my system does not back these plays, I've got a very high level of confidence in them. I know that the Jets have been struggling lately, but this just isn't a good match-up for Carolina. First of all, we've got Revis covering Steve Smith, the only reliable target through the air for Delhomme. 25% of his completions have gone to Smith, with 50% of his touchdown throws going to him as well. Revis has already shut down Marques Colston, Randy Moss, and Andre Johnson this year, so I have to believe that he will make it very difficult for Delhomme to get the ball to his favorite target. Since the Panthers will struggle moving the ball through the air, they'll likely turn to their ground game and spend the game hammering the ball with their running backs. The Jets, however, have had a very good run defense so far this year, even recently in their struggles. In their last 6 games (They're 1-6 over this span), they're still only allowing 3.93 yards/rush attempt, which is 6th best in the league. Therefore, I've got to believe that they'll do a decent job limiting the damage that Carolina can do on the ground, making it very difficult for the Panthers to get points.
On offense, it's no secret that the Jets have struggled lately, mostly due to Sanchez's inability to take care of the ball. Rex Ryan has spent the week working with Sanchez on his ball security, but despite this fact I doubt they'll let him throw too much in this contest. Carolina's pass defense is 9th best in the league, so the Jets will likely also choose to fight their battle on the ground. The Jets are the 6th best rushing offense in the league, and going against the 6th worst rushing defense in the league a bit of a mismatch seems to exist. The Jets should be able to use their running game to set up the pass, and I look for Sanchez to have a much better game and turn the ball over no more than one time. I expect this game to stay lower scoring, with the Jets' offense finding yards and points much easier than the Panthers'. I expect a final score in the neighborhood of 23-13 Jets.
I remain stubborn in my opinion that all is not well on the New England offense. Their struggle all year has been finishing drives, and against a team like the Saints I don't expect them to be able to get away with this flaw. This year (Discounting the Titans game, in which Tennessee clearly wasn't interested in playing), the Patriots have scored 23 offensive touchdowns to 19 field goals. This means that only 55% of the Patriots' scoring drives have been touchdowns, the 9th worst percentage in the league. Also, the Saints have proven to have a very capable pass defense, which ranks 6th best in the league at yards/pass attempt allowed. I expect them to dial up the pressure and throw Brady off of his game a bit, again limiting the Patriots' scoring opportunities a bit.
The Saints however, have been excellent at scoring all year as everyone knows. The Saints continue to have the best passing offense, fifth best rushing offense, and best scoring efficiency in the league. The Patriots defense is middle of the pack in both rushing and passing defense, and allow 68% of scoring drives on them to end in touchdowns, the 8th worst percentage in the league. So, it looks like the pieces are all in place for the Saints to have yet another big offensive night. As I've said before, the Saints are one of the few teams in the NFL that appear to still have a large home-field advantage, and I expect that to only help on Monday night against the Patriots. Saints should win this game by a touchdown at least, something like 38-27.
This game looks a bit like a trap and the public is all over it, but sometimes the public is right and I think this is one of those cases. We again have the setup of a poor rushing defense going against the wildcat offense, which Ricky Williams has excelled in so far. Miami's offense is still rushing for about 4.7 yards per carry, 6th best in the NFL. This is enough for them to overcome a mediocre passing game, which always manages to do just enough.
Buffalo's offense is still a mess, Owens' long touchdown last week could be attributed to a bit of a fluke as Jacksonville was missing a key corner. Miami's big defensive liability is the pass, which actually has been better of late. Even if they don't show up, Buffalo's passing offense is still below average, so I don't expect a lot of firepower out of them. Miami knows they have to show up this week if they want any hope at making the playoffs, I expect them to do just that as they win this one by a touchdown.
That's it for this week everyone, good luck this week!
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