We got the week off to a good start with Miami coming through for us and winning, but we still have a few plays to go that will hopefully seal out a good week. This was a tough week for me to pick as I didn't like a lot of what my system was recommending, and I felt that it was a very tight set of lines. However, I've managed to pull a couple more plays together that I think have a great chance of coming through. Here's what I've got this weekend:
- Chargers/Broncos UNDER 45
I'm liking this under for all the same reasons I liked it the first time, and we get more points this time. I'm going to have to cross my fingers that we don't see three return touchdowns again. Although Denver's defense seemed to get a bit exposed last week in Washington, I still think they're a top notch unit and just came out a bit flat last week. At home against the Chargers this week, you can be sure they'll be fired up, which is great to know given that they're the 6th best passing defense and 7th best rushing defense on the season. As far as the Chargers' defense goes, they're slightly above average in both pass and rush defense. The Eagles tore them up through the air last week, but I think with Orton out of this game we won't have to worry about too dangerous of a passing attack from the Broncos. They'll likely try to win this game on the ground, which should result in a lot of clock being run on scoring drives. I don't think we'll see another three special team touchdowns, and we shouldn't see many if any quick scores. This game should go under pretty easily, I see about 41 points being the ceiling in this one.
I'm a little nervous about this one because it looks like an obvious pick. The Browns' offense has been terrible all year as everyone knows, and the Lions haven't exactly been lighting up the scoreboard either. There's only one way I can see this game going over, which would be if the Lions blow the Browns out. The Browns' defense is good enough to keep that from happening, and should come out fired up knowing that this is a rare opportunity for the team to win a game. I don't think the Cleveland offense will do much different than usual, trying to move the ball methodically down the field, meaning that even if they do somehow find the end zone they'll eat a lot of clock in the process. I can't imagine a likely scenario where more than 37 points are scored, so I'm going to roll with the under here and hope that the Lions can contain Cribbs.
That's it for this week, small week I know, but I'm going to continue picking my spots and not forcing any plays! Hopefully next weekend has a little more action for us! Good luck to everyone this week!
Stumble It!