I've decided on releasing two Thursday Night plays for the first time this season, but with good reason. I'm very confident in both of these plays, as long as the Jets show up these should win no problem. Here's what I'm thinking for tonight:

• New York Jets -3
• Jets/Bills UNDER 37

To begin, let's note that this game is in Canada and not Buffalo's true home stadium. The past two weeks, the Bills have looked like a different team as Fitzpatrick has thrown for 583 yards (291.5 y/gm). However, there are some factors that need to be taken into account. First of all, these games have been against the Jaguars and Dolphins, the 3rd and 9th worst pass defenses in the NFL. Secondly, this week the Bills find themselves against the Jets, the #1 ranked pass defense in the NFL. Over those two games, Terrell Owens has experienced a resurgence, as he has accounted for 293 yards receiving, over half of Fitzpatrick's total yardage. This week, he faces Revis, who we've all become familiar with as the best corner in the NFL. After shutting down Steve Smith last week (1 catch for 5 yards), Revis should have no problem with the slower Owens. Sure Owens has size, but so did Randy Moss and Andre Johnson, and Revis took care of them as well. Not to mention that in their first meeting Revis held him to just 13 yards receiving. When you also consider that Buffalo's rush offense is 19th in the NFL in yards per rush attempt, and that they're going against the 6th best rushing defense in the NFL, I just can't see how this offense will move the ball at all. Their best offense might be their defense, as they'll have to hope that Mark Sanchez turns the ball over multiple times as he did in their first meeting, which is always a possibility. I don't think that this will happen though, as the Jets will take advantage of the fact that the Bills have the 2nd worst rushing defense in the NFL, and keep the majority of their offense to the ground. I think the Jets will have some time consuming drives, while the Bills will simply not get many opportunities and struggle when they do. I'd be shocked if the Bills topped 13 points in this one, as the Jets might even flirt with shutting their offense out. I see the Jets winning comfortably, along the lines of 20-6.

Good luck to those of you who decide to make a wager tonight!