NFC West Division Predictions and Win Totals

AFC West
AFC North
AFC East
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NFC South
NFC West (Reading Now)
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NFC North

Well I find myself with a little extra time this week as I've been temporarily shelved by an ankle injury, but the good news is that means I can get to our next division writeup sooner! I'll tackle the NFC West this week, which looks likely to be one of the weaker divisions in the NFL this year. I'm pulling win totals and division odds from sportsbook.com again, here's what I see for the NFC West this year:

• Arizona Cardinals
  
• Win Line: 7.5
  
• Odds to win division: +300
  

Arizona had a successful 2009 season finishing the year at 10-6 before losing to the eventual Super Bowl champion Saints in the divisional round of the playoffs. Although still below average the running game took a step in the right direction, and Kurt Warner led the team to an above average mark in passing as well. On the defensive side of the ball Arizona had its ups and downs, ranking 5th against the pass, yet only 23rd against the run. However, the defense made up for this by being the 9th best unit in the NFL at scoring efficiency.

2010 for the Cardinals will be a very different year as they no longer have QB Kurt Warner or WR Anquan Boldin on the team. Matt Leinart steps in looking to lead this team, and given what I've seen from him so far I'm not sure he's ready to. Although I think WR Steve Breaston will do a decent job replacing Boldin, this passing unit is sure to take a step back as I see Leinart struggling with turnovers all year. The running game should continue to move forward however as RBs Tim Hightower and "Beanie" Wells lead the rushing attack, and with Wells looking like he'll get more touches I expect the team to be about average running the ball, maybe slightly better. However, overall this will probably be a very inconsistent offensive unit and the Cardinals will struggle to score at times in 2010. On defense, one has to think that the team is bound to improve at least slightly as they've added OLB Joey Porter to the unit. Although they also lost Antrel Rolle, the addition of FS Kerry Rhodes should pretty much make up for his absence. Karlos Dansby is the only other notable loss for this defense, but again they've got a man to fill the position with ILB Daryl Washington, although again he may not be able to produce at quite the same level. Overall though this unit should improve a little bit, I expect them to rank slightly worse against the pass, but fill the run gaps a little bit better and get that weakness under control. However, in the end the offense will limit what this team can do, and the Cardinals will take a step back and find themselves out of the playoffs.

Predicted Record: 7-9
Total Play: NO PLAY

• San Francisco 49ers
  
• Win Line: 8.5
  
• Odds to win division: -160

The 49ers showed flashes of promise in 2009, however inconsistent play by their quarterbacks resulted in them struggling to an 8-8 finish. The defense was a very bright spot for this team as they ranked 3rd in rush defense and 12th against the pass, while also ranking 3rd in scoring efficiency. With all of the same pieces in place as in 2009, and a little added depth by drafting Taylor Mays, I see a very similar outcome for this team in 2010. On offense, the team is also very similar aside from shuffling their offensive line yet again. Sacks played a big part in the poor passing numbers Smith put up in 2009, as he threw for only 5.5 yards per pass attempt, 23rd in the NFL. As Smith and the 49ers go forward in 2010, they're going to have to get improved play from the offensive line if these numbers are going to improve. Having WR Michael Crabtree all season should help, as he definitely has the talent to take a step forward and emerge as a top notch WR. If Vernon Davis also plays like he did last season, Smith should have the weapons to improve the team's passing numbers from last season, even if newly acquired WR Ted Ginn continues to be a bust. The running game was the bright spot on offense as usual last season, with RB Frank Gore leading the team to the 12th best rushing attack in the NFL. If Gore can stay healthy this season we should see similar if not a better ranking, and this should be a pretty balanced offense. Although facing a somewhat tough schedule this season, the 49ers are clearly the most complete team in the NFC West and should have no problem beating out the others for the division title and cruise into the playoffs.

Projected Record: 9-7
Total Play: OVER 8.5

• Seattle Seahawks
  
• Win Line: 7.5
  
• Odds to win division: +300

Seattle suffered through a miserable 2009 season, finishing with just a 5-11 record and absolutely terrible offensive numbers. The team was 9th worst at passing and 6th worst at running the ball, and despite their lack of yardage they were still the 7th least efficient team when it came to scoring the ball. On defense the news didn't get much better, as their bright spot was their average run defense. Their pass defense was a notch below, ranking 9th worst in the NFL, with scoring efficiency ranking the same.

Let's start with the offensive mess for Seattle. The good news is that with the Lendale White experiment over before it began, Justin Forsett should get a much higher number of touches. Forsett was a very underused piece of the offense last year, as he averaged over 5 yards per carry and has potential to be a difference maker on this offense. The Seahawks also added RB Leon Washington for return duties and to back up Forsett, and if he's recovered from his injury he should contribute to making this rush attack respectable for the Seahawks. In the passing game, Hasselbeck has struggled the past couple years with turnovers and the only new weapon he really has is rookie WR Golden Tate. I'm not a big believer that Tate can make a huge difference to this team, so I think the passing game will likely still be below average. On the defensive side of the ball, the Seahawks look like they may have a decent secondary, however their defensive line is a mess and possibly one of the worst in the league. It's going to be another season of the Seahawks struggling to pressure opposing quarterbacks, and with no impact players added to the unit it almost looks possible that they'll be worse than last year. With a shaky defense and an offense that has a lot of questions surrounding it, the Seahawks will not be able to compete this season, and the 7 wins I'm projecting them may actually be generous. This team won't be close to the playoffs, and get up to my 7 win projection if they're lucky.

Projected Record: 7-9
Total Play: UNDER 7.5

• St. Louis Rams
  
• Win Line: 5
  
• Odds to win division: +2200

The Rams began the long project of rebuilding by drafting QB Sam Bradford with the first overall pick, and look to put the Marc Bulger era behind them. However, I'm not sure that Bradford is the answer to their problems. St. Louis quarterbacks got sacked almost three times a game last season, and being a QB that holds on to the ball a little too long that doesn't bode well for Bradford. Donnie Avery will return this season as the #1 WR, and hopefully for the Rams he doesn't suffer nearly as many injuries as he did in 2009. Laurent Robinson will likely be the #2 WR on this team, and he may have something to offer if he too can stay healthy this year. The Rams can probably improve upon their 2nd worst ranked pass offense from last year, however I'm not sure they'll get out of the bottom 8. RB Steven Jackson will again be a workhorse for this team, as he kept the Rams above average running the ball, as they ranked 11th in yards per rush attempt. The inability of the Rams to keep drives alive will keep him from scoring the ball as usual though, and his durability will be a concern this year as usual.

On the defensive side of the ball, the Rams made a few changes to try and fix their 30th ranked pass defense and 20th ranked rush defense. While the Rams' secondary is made up of mostly the same starters, they added Fred Robbins on their defensive line to help out with the run defense. Their biggest changes were at the linebacker position, where they added Na'il Diggs and Bobby Carpenter. These two should also help shore up the run defense a bit, however I still see that huge weakness at passing defense, something that will haunt them this year. The Rams took a step in the right direction, although I'm not sure it was a very big one. A slightly more merciful schedule should help this team escape this season with a few more wins, although still well in last place.

Projected Record: 4-12
Totals Play: UNDER 5


2010 Projected NFC West Standings:
49ers: 9-7
Cardinals: 7-9
Seahawks: 7-9
Rams: 4-12

NFC West Plays:
49ers to win division: -160
49ers OVER 8.5
Seahawks UNDER 7.5
Rams UNDER 5

NFC East Division Predictions and Win Totals

AFC West
AFC North
AFC East
AFC South
NFC South
NFC West
NFC East (Reading Now)
NFC North

Another lengthy break, another apology by me. The good news is we may only have to go through this two more times seeing how after this writeup I only have two more divisions to break down. Hopefully I can stay on top of these a bit better though and close this out sooner rather than later. This week brings us to the NFC East, which I see overall being a bit weaker than usual this year. Win totals and division odds are taken from sportsbook.com yet again, here's how I see things going in the East:

• Dallas Cowboys
  
• Win Line: 9.5
  
• Odds to win division: +110

Dallas had themselves a pretty successful 2009 season, the highlight of which may have been beating the at the time undefeated Saints. After finishing the regular season with an 11-5 record, the Cowboys took care of business at home against the Eagles in the Wild Card round of the playoffs before falling victim to the Vikings. Dallas was very solid on both sides of the ball, ranking 2nd in yards per rush attempt on offense, and 6th in yards per pass attempt. On defense, they weren't quite that good but still above average, ranking 9th in yards per pass attempt and 11th in yards per rush attempt. The biggest issue Dallas had was turning their offensive yards into points however, as they were 8th worst in the league at scoring efficiency.

This coming season, I have high hopes for the Cowboys as I believe they have a legitimate shot at a Super Bowl run. I expect the running game to be just as good as last year if not slightly better with Felix Jones expected to get more touches this coming season, and Tony Romo should have a much better second WR in Dez Bryant than he had in Roy Williams last year. I think these two changes lead to the Cowboys finishing out their drives for touchdowns more than last year, and their offense very much reminds me of the Saints going from 2008 into 2009 in that sense. Some people are concerned about the Cowboys losing Flozell Adams at Left Tackle, however I believe that this loss will barely have an impact if at all. On the defensive side of the ball, the Cowboys are a very similar unit to last year with no changes I would consider major. Their numbers at the end of the season will probably be in the same area as where they wound up last year, and as the #1 defense in scoring efficiency in 2009 I feel very good about that. The Cowboys have all the pieces for a deep playoff run, but despite a somewhat tough schedule won't completely run away with the division. Worst the Cowboys finish is 10-6, I think 11-5 is very doable again though.

Predicted Record: 11-5
Total Play: OVER 9.5

• New York Giants
  
• Win Line: 8.5
  
• Odds to win division: +275

The 2009 Giants started the year on a very good note, opening up with a 5-0 start before collapsing down the stretch and finishing the year 8-8. Their rushing game took a big step back as they were only 17th in the NFL in yards per rush attempt, and their defense let them down by ranking below average in both yards per rush attempt and pass attempt, while also ranking dead last in defensive scoring efficiency. Basically, it was way too easy to score points on them.

The Giants' brightest spot in 2009? The passing game, which should be just as good if not better in 2010 with both Steve Smith and Hakeem Nicks starting for the Giants at WR, providing Manning with a couple of reliable options to keep drives alive. At RB, Brandon Jacobs should be able to at least slightly improve from his dismal 3.7 yards per carry in 2009, but whether he'll return to his 2008 form remains to be seen. The offensive line for this team is also as good as ever, leading me to believe we'll be seeing a few more points put on the board by the Giants in 2010. On defense, the big loss of the offseason for the Giants is Antonio Pierce, which is definitely a blow. However, their defensive line looks like it should be much better this year with a couple of their players getting healthy finally, and the arrival of rookie Jason Paul-Pierre who is drawing rave reviews thus far. The Giants also added Safety Antrel Rolle this offseason, which should bolster their secondary and shore up their pass defense a bit. The 2010 Giants look to be much closer to their form beginning the 2009 season than they were towards the end, and if this team can stay healthy this year and a few things break their way they could give the Cowboys a run for their money. I'm not entirely convinced that's how things play out though, and we likely see the Giants fall prey to their brutal schedule in the end.

Projected Record: 9-7
Total Play: NO PLAY

• Philadelphia Eagles
  
• Win Line: 8.5
  
• Odds to win division: +275

The 2009 Eagles are a tough team to judge looking back on as they finished 11-5, yet benefited from a very soft schedule. The only team they beat that had an above .500 record was the Falcons, and that was in a week in which the Falcons were decimated by injuries. Not only that, but every single loss the Eagles had was to a team with an above .500 record. So, I have no choice but to wonder if this team was really as good as their record indicated. Offensively, their numbers were slightly above average both passing and rushing the ball, but on defense their pass defense was 4th best in the league while their rush defense was ranked 14th.

2010 is the start of a new era in Philadelphia as the Eagles have a new QB at the helm, Kevin Kolb. Kolb started two games in 2009 for the Eagles, dominating the Chiefs' poor pass defense in one game and getting picked off three times against the Saints in the other. I have a feeling that the 2010 season will be full of ups and downs such as this, but overall with the same weapons around him as McNabb had, the passing numbers should be about the same as last season. There's been a big change to the running game as well as Brian Westbrook is gone, turning the rushing game over to LeSean McCoy and Mike Bell. With Westbrook limited in 2009 this is again a change that shouldn't show up too large in the stats however, and the Eagles should also have similar rushing numbers with this duo as they had last year. Overall I think the offense may have a bit more trouble closing out drives and won't put up quite as many points as last year, but that should be about the only step back we see from them this coming season. On defense there are a lot of new faces as well, but the most notable change may be the return of MLB Stewart Bradley. The Eagles did lose Sheldon Brown this offseason however, which you expect will hurt their pass defense at least a little bit. This defense isn't quite as much about the personnel as it is the style however, as they tend to play a similar style to the Saints in the sense that they constantly crank up the pressure to try and generate turnovers. When all is said and done however, the Eagles face a MUCH tougher schedule than they did in 2009, and it's going to be a tough first year in the Kevin Kolb era. I'll give them a slightly optimistic prediction with a .500 record, however finishing slightly worse wouldn't surprise me.

Projected Record: 8-8
Total Play: UNDER 8.5

• Washington Redskins
  
• Win Line: 7.5
  
• Odds to win division: +600

The Redskins really struggled in 2009 posting a dismal 4-12 record, which led to them making some much needed changes. Mike Shanahan comes in as the new coach for the Redskins this season, but the most notable offseason move has to be the acquisition of QB Donovan Mcnabb from the Eagles. However, I'm not a huge believer that this move will significantly help the Redskins. Mcnabb has always had some issues with accuracy, completing a very similar percentage of passes compared to former QB Jason Campbell, and this coming season he won't have the level of talent on offense surrounding him on offense as he did in Philadelphia. The only benefit I really see coming from this is that Mcnabb will turn the ball over less than Campbell did, but the team should be right around average in yards per pass attempt just as they were in 2009. At RB, Clinton Portis is still listed as #1 on the depth chart, with Larry Johnson backing him up in what will likely be a running back by committee situation. I don't expect Willie Parker to contribute much as I believe he doesn't have much left to offer in his career. The running game may be slightly improved compared to their ranking of 27th in 2009, however Larry Johnson probably doesn't bring a whole lot to the table that will offer a viable solution. The improvement at the offensive line alone should account for any improvement however as they drafted LT Trent Williams in the first round.

On defense, the Redskins were 15th against the pass and 10th against the run in 2009, decent numbers but definitely room for improvement. The addition of Jim Haslett as defensive coordinator will likely help with this improvement, however I'm not convinced the Redskins have the necessary personnel to do so. There is a lot of speculation surrounding the future of Albert Haynesworth, whether or not he's present on this defense will make a big different. The Redskins have acquired DE Adam Carriker however, and it'll be interesting to see how he performs returning from spending the year on the IR in 2009. While all these offseason moves are a good first step to returning the Redskins to legitimacy, it won't be enough for the team to compete this year.

Projected Record: 7-9
Totals Play: UNDER 7.5


2010 Projected NFC East Standings:
Cowboys: 11-5
Giants: 9-7
Eagles: 8-8
Redskins: 7-9

NFC East Plays:
Cowboys to win division +110
Cowboys OVER 9.5
Eagles UNDER 8.5
Redskins UNDER 7.5