Got the weekend off to a shaky start with the under in the Jets' game losing, but it's only one play and we have plenty of time to salvage the weekend. With two wild card games to go, here's what I'm liking tomorrow:
- Patriots/Ravens OVER 43
- Ravens +3
If you think back to the middle of the Patriots' season, there were some serious concerns surrounding their secondary. Before their meaningless game against the Texans, the Patriots' defense was looking much better, as they allowed 13.33 ppg over a three game span. However, given the quality of opponents they faced, it certainly is hard to make the case that they've fixed any of their issues. New England faced three teams ranked 21st or worse in yards/pass attempt over this span, so it's hard to read much into the positive results they've had lately. As things stand now, the Patriots have the 22nd worst defense in the NFL in yards/pass attempt allowed, which Flacco and the Ravens will be able to take advantage of. Furthermore, the Ravens currently are 4th in the NFL in yards/rush attempt, mostly due to the explosive playmaking of Ray Rice. The Patriots run defense is nothing special, ranking 18th in the NFL in yards/rush attempt allowed, so the Ravens should be able to keep the chains moving on the ground as well and put up a good number of points.
When the Patriots have the ball, they should be able to exploit the weak Baltimore secondary. New England is 7th in the NFL in yards/pass attempt, and the Ravens have allowed a whopping 7.65 yards/pass attempt this year against teams that are top 10 in the NFL in this category (6 games). Although the Patriots have lost Welker for the year, Edelman does a good job of filling his role and should be able to match his production fairly well. Against the Ravens' #1 rushing defense, the Patriots will have to focus their attack through the air, something that will both contribute to the over and hurt them I believe. If forced to become one dimensional, although they will still find ways to put up points, I think the Ravens will be able to dial up the pressure on Brady and force him into some mistakes, as he still does not look to be handling pressure too well this first season off of his injury. Points will be there for the Pats, but I don't think it will be enough points when all is said and done. Ravens should take this contest in a higher scoring game than most would think, 31-24.
- Packers/Cardinals UNDER 47.5
This one doesn't require too long of a write up, the reasoning is pretty simple. The Cardinals enter this one allowing 5.61 yards/pass attempt, 5th best among NFL defenses. Although Green Bay tore them up through the air last week, the Cardinals didn't seem too interested in the game, and I doubt they were throwing a very complicated defensive scheme out there. I think Arizona should be able to slow down the Packers' attack through the air, which should effectively limit the number of points the Packers are able to throw on the board. On the Cardinals' side of the ball, they should have trouble generating offense against this solid Green Bay defense. The Packers are 8th best in yards/pass attempt against, and 2nd best in yards/rush attempt against in the NFL, and will frustrate Warner and the Cardinals' offense all game. I think this has the makings of a 24-20 game, which will keep the total under and hopefully seal out a winning day.
That's it for this round, best of luck everyone!
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