We're heading into the playoffs with a 50-25-1 ATS record, in what has certainly been a great season so far. Last year, the playoffs were good to me as I went 6-1 ATS. However, as far as I'm concerned, these numbers are in the past and there is no guarantee that going forward these playoffs will be good to us. So, as usual, let me remind everyone to manage their money wisely and not put more down on these games than they can afford to lose. Nothing is guaranteed in this business, and past results don't indicate future ones. Hopefully though, we won't have to worry about any negative consequences and we'll have another good playoff round. Here's what I like for Saturday, I'll send out Sunday plays tomorrow night:
I wasn't thrilled to see this number move off of 34, I wasn't quite expecting that, but I'm sticking with this play as I don't think it makes a difference. For starters, the Jets head into a road playoff game with a rookie QB at the helm, who has had problems all year turning the ball over. You can be certain that Sanchez will make a mistake or two in this opening round, which should take some points off the board for the Jets. Also, although they didn't show it last week, the Bengals are an elite defense in the NFL. They are currently the 7th best in yards/pass attempt allowed, and 8th best in yards/rush attempt allowed, one of only three teams to be top 8 in each category. This defense rolled over against the Jets last week, and since the Jets had to win to get in, they were forced to tip their hand a bit. You can be sure that the Bengals will have an answer for Smith lining up in the Wildcat formation, and the Jets' rushing game will not put together a game like they did last week.
On the Bengals side of the ball, points won't be any easier. Chad Ochocinco will be blanketed by Revis all game, a huge problem for the Bengals as he accounts for 1/3 of their yards through the air, and almost half of Palmers' passing touchdowns. Ochocinco will almost certainly be shut down by Revis as most elite receivers have been this year, causing some major issues in the passing game for the Bengals. The other strength of Cinci's this year has been running the ball, and the rushing attack has not looked good in recent weeks. Even if they do show up, the Jets are 5th best in the league in yards/rush attempt allowed, so I doubt we see a ton of production on the ground out of the Bengals here. This game is set up to be very low scoring, and likely will come down to which QB takes better care of the ball. In the end though, I see this being a 13-10 kind of game.
That's it for Saturday, I'm laying off of everything else. Good luck to anyone who places any bets!
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