Round 3 Plays

I apologize at the tardiness of my adding this second play. I would have sent it out yesterday, but I spent most of the day in bed feeling sick. As most of you know by now, the Colts play today, not yesterday as I originally mailed out by mistake. However, what day the game is on doesn't make me like the play any less. It's been a very shaky playoffs for me so far, as I've badly missed on a couple of plays and find myself with a losing record on the week for just the second time this year after round 2. I'm very disappointed with how things have gone these past couple of weeks, but I'm hopeful that I can still right the ship and hit the rest of my plays this season to salvage a winning playoffs. Here's what I like today:

• Colts -7.5

In their first meeting, the Colts' starters put up 15 easy points (missed PAT and failed 2 point conversion kept it from being 17) on the Jets' defense before starters were yanked from the game early in the third quarter. In that game, the Jets were playing for their playoff lives and still unable to get much pressure on Manning or slow Indy's attack through the air. Manning threw for about 9 yards per pass attempt in that game, and had no trouble constantly finding an open man. Even last week the Jets showed a bit of a weakness in their secondary, as they allowed over 6 yards/pass attempt to Rivers and the Chargers. The Chargers simply beat themselves by trying to win the game through Tomlinson, who clearly is not the same back he once was. I think that the Colts are going to load up the box to stop the run, forcing Sanchez to beat them through the air. Given the fact that Indy allowed the 4th least yards/pass attempt in the NFL, I think that Sanchez won't be up to the task. The Colts should be able to get pressure on Sanchez, and I think we're going to see a few turnovers out of him that allow the Colts to put this game out of reach. Colts should cruise to the Superbowl with a double digit win.

• Saints -3.5

As everyone knows, the Saints have been an elite passing unit all season, as New Orleans has one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL. Although Minnesota's defense has been a bit streaky this year, one constant that can be taken away is that their main weakness is against the pass. Although Dallas only put up 3 points on them last week, they were moving the ball with ease before losing one of their key offensive linemen, they just were shooting themselves in the foot in true Cowboys' fashion in ways that would keep points off the board. I'm certain that those are drives we'll see the Saints be able to finish today.

When you look at the Vikings offense, they've been much better throwing the ball than running it this year. Minnesota is 9th in yards/pass attempt, and just 23rd in yards/rush attempt this season. If you look at just games where the majority of the Saints defense has been healthy, they are 5th in the NFL in yards/pass attempt allowed. The Saints have also excelled at covering opponents' #1 WRs, and if they can keep Sidney Rice limited, the Vikings are going to lose a lot of their offensive firepower. We know that Favre can be pressured into mistakes, and I wouldn't be surprised to see the Saints force a couple of turnovers in this one as well that will help them put the game out of reach.

Round 2 Sunday Play

I thought a bit about this one, but after some deliberation I've decided it's a solid play:

• Cowboys +2.5

Dallas has been a very underrated team all season, as they're one of just two teams to be top 8 in both yards/pass attempt and yards/rush attempt (Saints are the other team). On offense, I like how their pass offense matches up with the Vikings' passing defense. Although the Vikings have had a solid pass rush so far this year, they still find themselves ranked 19th in yards per pass attempt allowed. Not only that, but the defense has played the easiest passing schedule in the NFL, which speaks volumes given the fact that they're still a below average unit against the pass. Facing the run, it is no secret that Dallas has one of the most explosive rushing attacks in the NFL. Although the Minnesota defense could do a decent job of limiting the damage Dallas does on the ground, the Cowboys should be able to muster enough offense on the ground to keep Minnesota honest and from focusing in on their issues in the secondary.

On defense, the Cowboys have shown quite a bit lately as they've shut down top notch units such as the Eagles and Saints. Minnesota has lost their identity as a running team as Peterson has struggled since early in the season, and the Vikings find themselves ranked 23rd in yards/rush attempt. Dallas has the 8th best rushing defense in the NFL, and should be able to keep AP and Taylor bottled up for most of the game. If Minnesota is to win this game, they'll have to do it through the air. Favre and the Vikings enter the game 9th in the NFL in yards/pass attempt. This is not as spectacular as it appears however, as the Vikings have played the 9th easiest passing schedule in the NFL. The Dallas front 4 has been getting tons of pressure on opposing quarterbacks, and we all know that Favre is a quarterback who can be pressured into mistakes. Having played the 7th toughest schedule against the pass in the NFL, Dallas is still an above average passing defense, and generates the 7th most sacks per game in the NFL. I expect them to have Favre frequently under pressure, and for some turnovers to put Dallas in command in this one. These are two teams headed in opposite directions, and when all is said and done we should see Dallas coming away with an outright win.

Round 2 Playoff Picks

Well, after a disappointing first weekend, I'm looking to bounce back with some solid plays this round. Nobody could have seen the Bengals' poor defensive play coming, however that Under I released was just awful. It's rare I feel embarrassed by a play, but that was one of those cases. So, I'm going to do what I can to right the ship this week and get us another profitable week and back up to that 67% mark. Here's what I like this round:

• Saints -7

I know a popular public play this week is Arizona +7, however I was keyed in on this play before I even knew the public percentages. Let's start by breaking down Arizona. For starters, I'm not going to read much into the offensive show they put on last week against the Packers, as the Green Bay defense was completely asleep. They were getting absolutely no pressure on Warner, and their receivers were constantly wide open. As well as Warner may have played, most quarterbacks in the NFL can succeed when they're throwing to wide open receivers. The Saints should have 10 out of 11 of their defensive starters healthy and ready to go in this one, the first time this can be said in many weeks. People read a lot into the regression of the Saints' defense since the Patriots game, but each week they've been holding out anywhere from 2-4 defensive starters due to injuries. They haven't been able to generate the same pressure on opposing QBs since then, and with the unit healthy again I expect them to get back to their strengths. Warner has shown that he's prone to turning the ball over when pressured, and with Boldin likely out, although it didn't impact the offense last week I expect it will a bit more in this one.

Defensively, the Cardinals have played one of the easiest schedules in the league as far as opposing pass offenses go. In games against top notch passing units, the Cardinals have been shredded this year, and against this spectacular Saints offense I don't expect this to change. Although the offense slowed a bit in recent weeks, the return of Jeremy Shockey should help them get back on track as he really does a lot for them out there, when not catching the ball then helping offer protection for Brees. I'm convinced that the Cardinals come back down to earth this week, and the Saints offense does their thing and puts 31+ points on the board. We should have an easy double digit win for the Saints, along the lines of 38-20.

• Ravens/Colts OVER 44

The first time these teams met, there were a ton of points left on the field. My comments last week about the Ravens struggling against strong passing teams hasn't changed, last week I chalk the Patriots' struggles up to an injured Randy Moss and Wes Welker not playing. Brady didn't look great either, and played one of the worst games of his playoff career. Manning won't make the same mistakes as the Patriots did, and will be able to throw all over this questionable Baltimore secondary. Also, in the first meeting, the Colts only scored 17 points, despite throwing for over 9 yards per pass attempt. They suffered from three turnovers, and in this matchup I think that they'll take better care of the ball and put points on the board fairly easily. On the Ravens' side of the ball, although they're likely going to try to move the ball on the ground, I expect the Colts to force them into winning through the air. Baltimore had to settle for five field goals against the Colts in their first meeting, and this time around should find ways to get the ball into the endzone more frequently. I'm not sure who covers in this game, but either way I think we see a decent number of points on the board by each team, pushing this total over by about a touchdown.

For now, that's it. At the moment I don't have any strong reads on the Sunday games. I'll keep looking at the games into tomorrow night, but it's very possible I just keep it to these two plays this week. Good luck this weekend everyone!

Wild Card Weekend Plays (Part 2)

Got the weekend off to a shaky start with the under in the Jets' game losing, but it's only one play and we have plenty of time to salvage the weekend. With two wild card games to go, here's what I'm liking tomorrow:

• Patriots/Ravens OVER 43
• Ravens +3
  

If you think back to the middle of the Patriots' season, there were some serious concerns surrounding their secondary. Before their meaningless game against the Texans, the Patriots' defense was looking much better, as they allowed 13.33 ppg over a three game span. However, given the quality of opponents they faced, it certainly is hard to make the case that they've fixed any of their issues. New England faced three teams ranked 21st or worse in yards/pass attempt over this span, so it's hard to read much into the positive results they've had lately. As things stand now, the Patriots have the 22nd worst defense in the NFL in yards/pass attempt allowed, which Flacco and the Ravens will be able to take advantage of. Furthermore, the Ravens currently are 4th in the NFL in yards/rush attempt, mostly due to the explosive playmaking of Ray Rice. The Patriots run defense is nothing special, ranking 18th in the NFL in yards/rush attempt allowed, so the Ravens should be able to keep the chains moving on the ground as well and put up a good number of points.

When the Patriots have the ball, they should be able to exploit the weak Baltimore secondary. New England is 7th in the NFL in yards/pass attempt, and the Ravens have allowed a whopping 7.65 yards/pass attempt this year against teams that are top 10 in the NFL in this category (6 games). Although the Patriots have lost Welker for the year, Edelman does a good job of filling his role and should be able to match his production fairly well. Against the Ravens' #1 rushing defense, the Patriots will have to focus their attack through the air, something that will both contribute to the over and hurt them I believe. If forced to become one dimensional, although they will still find ways to put up points, I think the Ravens will be able to dial up the pressure on Brady and force him into some mistakes, as he still does not look to be handling pressure too well this first season off of his injury. Points will be there for the Pats, but I don't think it will be enough points when all is said and done. Ravens should take this contest in a higher scoring game than most would think, 31-24.

• Packers/Cardinals UNDER 47.5

This one doesn't require too long of a write up, the reasoning is pretty simple. The Cardinals enter this one allowing 5.61 yards/pass attempt, 5th best among NFL defenses. Although Green Bay tore them up through the air last week, the Cardinals didn't seem too interested in the game, and I doubt they were throwing a very complicated defensive scheme out there. I think Arizona should be able to slow down the Packers' attack through the air, which should effectively limit the number of points the Packers are able to throw on the board. On the Cardinals' side of the ball, they should have trouble generating offense against this solid Green Bay defense. The Packers are 8th best in yards/pass attempt against, and 2nd best in yards/rush attempt against in the NFL, and will frustrate Warner and the Cardinals' offense all game. I think this has the makings of a 24-20 game, which will keep the total under and hopefully seal out a winning day.

That's it for this round, best of luck everyone!

Wild Card Weekend Plays (Part 1)

We're heading into the playoffs with a 50-25-1 ATS record, in what has certainly been a great season so far. Last year, the playoffs were good to me as I went 6-1 ATS. However, as far as I'm concerned, these numbers are in the past and there is no guarantee that going forward these playoffs will be good to us. So, as usual, let me remind everyone to manage their money wisely and not put more down on these games than they can afford to lose. Nothing is guaranteed in this business, and past results don't indicate future ones. Hopefully though, we won't have to worry about any negative consequences and we'll have another good playoff round. Here's what I like for Saturday, I'll send out Sunday plays tomorrow night:

• Jets/Bengals UNDER 33.5

I wasn't thrilled to see this number move off of 34, I wasn't quite expecting that, but I'm sticking with this play as I don't think it makes a difference. For starters, the Jets head into a road playoff game with a rookie QB at the helm, who has had problems all year turning the ball over. You can be certain that Sanchez will make a mistake or two in this opening round, which should take some points off the board for the Jets. Also, although they didn't show it last week, the Bengals are an elite defense in the NFL. They are currently the 7th best in yards/pass attempt allowed, and 8th best in yards/rush attempt allowed, one of only three teams to be top 8 in each category. This defense rolled over against the Jets last week, and since the Jets had to win to get in, they were forced to tip their hand a bit. You can be sure that the Bengals will have an answer for Smith lining up in the Wildcat formation, and the Jets' rushing game will not put together a game like they did last week.

On the Bengals side of the ball, points won't be any easier. Chad Ochocinco will be blanketed by Revis all game, a huge problem for the Bengals as he accounts for 1/3 of their yards through the air, and almost half of Palmers' passing touchdowns. Ochocinco will almost certainly be shut down by Revis as most elite receivers have been this year, causing some major issues in the passing game for the Bengals. The other strength of Cinci's this year has been running the ball, and the rushing attack has not looked good in recent weeks. Even if they do show up, the Jets are 5th best in the league in yards/rush attempt allowed, so I doubt we see a ton of production on the ground out of the Bengals here. This game is set up to be very low scoring, and likely will come down to which QB takes better care of the ball. In the end though, I see this being a 13-10 kind of game.

That's it for Saturday, I'm laying off of everything else. Good luck to anyone who places any bets!

Week 17 Plays

We're entering the last week of the NFL regular season, a week that is always a bit tough to cap. How motivated some teams are is always questionable, and then we've got the whole other issue of playoff teams resting guys. Last season I had a losing Week 17 as I did a poor job evaluating all of these factors, hopefully I learned something from it and will bounce back this year. However, for these wagers and any others you guys may make, I suggest going a bit lighter than usual this week and gearing up for the playoffs. With that said, here's what I'm liking this weekend:

• Carolina Panthers -7

The Saints have made it pretty clear that they're just resting up for the playoffs in this one, with Brees being listed as their #3 quarterback for the game and anyone else with as much as a hangnail being rested. We've become familiar with the defensive issues the Saints have had the last few weeks with a couple defensive players out due to injury pretty much every game, and in this one I expect that it may look even worse with even more starters on the bench. The Panthers have started to hit their stride offensively lately, and with the Saints' running backs on the bench in this one, I don't think that the Panthers' 7th worst rush defense will be much of an issue. I think the Panthers cruise in this one, winning by double digits.

• Broncos/Chiefs UNDER 38

The Broncos made the head scratching decision to bench Marshall this weekend, who accounts for a huge part of their offense. I think this has a big impact on Orton and the offense in this one, as we likely don't see the same offensive explosion out of the Broncos as we did the first time facing the Chiefs. Although the Chiefs' passing and rushing defense has been awful this year, I don't think that the Broncos' passing attack will be able to get a ton going without Marshall, and we won't see many of explosive plays out of them. Meanwhile, Denvers' defense may have looked vulnerable against the Eagles last week, but I think in a must win game at home their 2nd best passing defense and slightly above average rushing defense shows up and holds the sorry Chiefs down without much problem. All in all, I think this total is pretty safe to go under by about a touchdown.

• Steelers/Dolphins OVER 45

This is another case of the Dolphins passing defense, 6th worst in yards/pass attempt allowed, going against a team that generates the majority of its' offense by throwing the ball (Pittsburgh is 5th in yards/pass attempt). This bodes pretty well for the Steelers to be able to have their way on offense, as I expect them to have a point total in the high 20s. In addition, I think Miami has a good chance at keeping up on the scoreboard, as recently the Pittsburgh defense has shown a real vulnerability in the passing game as well, and Miami is starting to hit their stride and generate offense through the air as well. Both teams are capable of hitting the mid 20s in this game, and I think this total gets pushed over with a final score along the lines of 27-24.

• Minnesota Vikings -9

The Vikings have really struggled lately, yet I believe this is a big bounce back game for them. Minnesota suddenly finds themselves battling for a first round bye, and in a must win game if they want any hope of salvaging that goal. We all know the Vikings have been a much better team at home this year, as they've averaged just over 31 ppg, while allowing just over 18. While it's nice to have this on our side, I also think that Minnesota should bounce back this week because I believe that DT Pat Williams will be playing, who is a huge part of their line and allowing Minnesota to generate pressure on opposing QBs. The Giants should also suffer from the absence of RB Brandon Jacobs, while perhaps not being very motivated for this contest having just been eliminated from the playoff hunt. All in all, I think that this is shaped to be a double digit win from the Vikings as they get ready to head into the playoffs.