Week 12 Plays

Got the week off to a good start with a win on Thanksgiving, hopefully we can close this week out with some solid plays to make it a very profitable week. I've got a few plays I'm really confident in, so hopefully these will come through for us. Here's what I like this weekend:

• New York Jets -3
• Jets/Panthers UNDER 41.5
  

Although my system does not back these plays, I've got a very high level of confidence in them. I know that the Jets have been struggling lately, but this just isn't a good match-up for Carolina. First of all, we've got Revis covering Steve Smith, the only reliable target through the air for Delhomme. 25% of his completions have gone to Smith, with 50% of his touchdown throws going to him as well. Revis has already shut down Marques Colston, Randy Moss, and Andre Johnson this year, so I have to believe that he will make it very difficult for Delhomme to get the ball to his favorite target. Since the Panthers will struggle moving the ball through the air, they'll likely turn to their ground game and spend the game hammering the ball with their running backs. The Jets, however, have had a very good run defense so far this year, even recently in their struggles. In their last 6 games (They're 1-6 over this span), they're still only allowing 3.93 yards/rush attempt, which is 6th best in the league. Therefore, I've got to believe that they'll do a decent job limiting the damage that Carolina can do on the ground, making it very difficult for the Panthers to get points.

On offense, it's no secret that the Jets have struggled lately, mostly due to Sanchez's inability to take care of the ball. Rex Ryan has spent the week working with Sanchez on his ball security, but despite this fact I doubt they'll let him throw too much in this contest. Carolina's pass defense is 9th best in the league, so the Jets will likely also choose to fight their battle on the ground. The Jets are the 6th best rushing offense in the league, and going against the 6th worst rushing defense in the league a bit of a mismatch seems to exist. The Jets should be able to use their running game to set up the pass, and I look for Sanchez to have a much better game and turn the ball over no more than one time. I expect this game to stay lower scoring, with the Jets' offense finding yards and points much easier than the Panthers'. I expect a final score in the neighborhood of 23-13 Jets.

• New Orleans Saints -1.5

I remain stubborn in my opinion that all is not well on the New England offense. Their struggle all year has been finishing drives, and against a team like the Saints I don't expect them to be able to get away with this flaw. This year (Discounting the Titans game, in which Tennessee clearly wasn't interested in playing), the Patriots have scored 23 offensive touchdowns to 19 field goals. This means that only 55% of the Patriots' scoring drives have been touchdowns, the 9th worst percentage in the league. Also, the Saints have proven to have a very capable pass defense, which ranks 6th best in the league at yards/pass attempt allowed. I expect them to dial up the pressure and throw Brady off of his game a bit, again limiting the Patriots' scoring opportunities a bit.

The Saints however, have been excellent at scoring all year as everyone knows. The Saints continue to have the best passing offense, fifth best rushing offense, and best scoring efficiency in the league. The Patriots defense is middle of the pack in both rushing and passing defense, and allow 68% of scoring drives on them to end in touchdowns, the 8th worst percentage in the league. So, it looks like the pieces are all in place for the Saints to have yet another big offensive night. As I've said before, the Saints are one of the few teams in the NFL that appear to still have a large home-field advantage, and I expect that to only help on Monday night against the Patriots. Saints should win this game by a touchdown at least, something like 38-27.

• Miami -3

This game looks a bit like a trap and the public is all over it, but sometimes the public is right and I think this is one of those cases. We again have the setup of a poor rushing defense going against the wildcat offense, which Ricky Williams has excelled in so far. Miami's offense is still rushing for about 4.7 yards per carry, 6th best in the NFL. This is enough for them to overcome a mediocre passing game, which always manages to do just enough.

Buffalo's offense is still a mess, Owens' long touchdown last week could be attributed to a bit of a fluke as Jacksonville was missing a key corner. Miami's big defensive liability is the pass, which actually has been better of late. Even if they don't show up, Buffalo's passing offense is still below average, so I don't expect a lot of firepower out of them. Miami knows they have to show up this week if they want any hope at making the playoffs, I expect them to do just that as they win this one by a touchdown.

That's it for this week everyone, good luck this week!

Week 11 Sunday Plays

We got the week off to a good start with Miami coming through for us and winning, but we still have a few plays to go that will hopefully seal out a good week. This was a tough week for me to pick as I didn't like a lot of what my system was recommending, and I felt that it was a very tight set of lines. However, I've managed to pull a couple more plays together that I think have a great chance of coming through. Here's what I've got this weekend:

• Chargers/Broncos UNDER 45

I'm liking this under for all the same reasons I liked it the first time, and we get more points this time. I'm going to have to cross my fingers that we don't see three return touchdowns again. Although Denver's defense seemed to get a bit exposed last week in Washington, I still think they're a top notch unit and just came out a bit flat last week. At home against the Chargers this week, you can be sure they'll be fired up, which is great to know given that they're the 6th best passing defense and 7th best rushing defense on the season. As far as the Chargers' defense goes, they're slightly above average in both pass and rush defense. The Eagles tore them up through the air last week, but I think with Orton out of this game we won't have to worry about too dangerous of a passing attack from the Broncos. They'll likely try to win this game on the ground, which should result in a lot of clock being run on scoring drives. I don't think we'll see another three special team touchdowns, and we shouldn't see many if any quick scores. This game should go under pretty easily, I see about 41 points being the ceiling in this one.

• Lions/Browns UNDER 38

I'm a little nervous about this one because it looks like an obvious pick. The Browns' offense has been terrible all year as everyone knows, and the Lions haven't exactly been lighting up the scoreboard either. There's only one way I can see this game going over, which would be if the Lions blow the Browns out. The Browns' defense is good enough to keep that from happening, and should come out fired up knowing that this is a rare opportunity for the team to win a game. I don't think the Cleveland offense will do much different than usual, trying to move the ball methodically down the field, meaning that even if they do somehow find the end zone they'll eat a lot of clock in the process. I can't imagine a likely scenario where more than 37 points are scored, so I'm going to roll with the under here and hope that the Lions can contain Cribbs.

That's it for this week, small week I know, but I'm going to continue picking my spots and not forcing any plays! Hopefully next weekend has a little more action for us! Good luck to everyone this week!

Thursday Night Play and Some Announcements

Happy Week 11 everyone! Let me start of with a couple announcements. First of all, despite being a game off of my 67% goal, I'm very happy with where things stand through the first 10 weeks. My system has really struggled so far (as have quite a few systems from what I gather), yet over the first 3 weeks of it producing plays I've managed a 9-5 ATS record on plays I've selected, much better than the 10-10 mark of all of its plays. I've made the decision to stop posting all system plays, as the plays I've posted that I haven't agreed with are only 2-5 ATS at this point. In my opinion, it doesn't make sense to show you guys losing plays, so until my system either turns it around or I start holding back winners I'm going to keep the additional plays on the shelf.

With my winning percentage currently at 65.9%, there are currently only 7 services being monitored by the Oklahoma Sports Monitor that have a higher winning percentage, none of which have released over 40 plays like I have. Also, only two services have more "Net Wins" than I do (+1 for every win, -1.1 for every loss). My current rate of return is 28.4%, meaning that for every dollar you invest on one of my plays you get a 28.4% gain. Only 7 services can claim better than that so far, and again, none of these services have released as many plays as me. Not only that, but none of these services offer their plays for free! We've been fortunate to be so successful so far, let's hope our good fortunes continue! Here's what I've got for tonight:

• Miami Dolphins +3

The big thing scaring people away from the Dolphins in this game is the absence of RB Ronnie Brown. He's been a huge part of their wildcat offense, and without him there is concern that it will struggle to be as effective as before. However, Ricky Williams is a very suitable replacement to Brown, as he's been running great all season, averaging over 5 yards per carry. He should continue to find success, as the Panthers' run defense is one of the worst in the NFL, giving up 4.63 yards per rush attempt. Miami's running game shouldn't have much trouble getting going in this one, opening up the passing game for Henne.

Miami's run defense is also a strength of the team. They've limited opponents to 3.74 yards per carry, 6th best in the NFL. Considering that the main strength of the Panthers this year is running the ball, this is a very welcome sign. Although Miami's pass defense has been abysmal so far this season, the Panthers have had major struggles in their passing game, and if Delhomme is forced to air it out we may see a turnover or two.

Finally, I think Miami holds the special teams advantage in this contest. They're the 5th best team in the league at kickoff and punt returns, while Carolina is 8th worst. When it comes to defending these returns, Miami is right about average, while Carolina is the worst in the league. This leads me to believe that Miami will also win the battle of field position, which should go a long way in making sure they win this game. So, with all of these factors on our side and my system backing the Dolphins, I'll take Miami and hope that they get the job done.

As always, good luck to anyone who decides to wager tonight!

Week 10 Plays

With two winning weeks in a row, it seems that we're starting to get things rolling in the right direction again. We've managed to go 6-3 ATS over that time span, despite the fact that my system has had such a slow start (5-6 ATS). I'm scratching my head a bit over why it's started so badly, but I trust it'll turn itself around sooner or later. So far, system plays that I have not made official plays are 0-3 ATS. Unless some of these system plays that I'm not upgrading start winning, I see no reason to keep posting them up. What good does it good for me to show system plays that just turn out to be losers? I'll monitor it for a week or two more, but I may be making a change in the coming weeks. Without further ado, here are my plays for Week 10:

• Colts/Patriots UNDER 50

I emailed out this play earlier in the week because of how much it jumped off the page at me. The Colts and Patriots have had astounding defenses so far, with Indianapolis having the best scoring efficiency defense in the league, and New England's ranking third best. As I explained a bit last week, I still do not think that Tom Brady is fully back, as the Patriots' red zone struggles continue. I expect this to be yet another week where they have to settle for a lot of field goals. On the Colts' offense side of the ball, this is a one dimensional offense that cannot run the ball very effectively. Teams in the NFL are starting to figure this out, which could be part of the reason Manning only has one touchdown pass over his last two games. I expect this game to stay a bit lower scoring, not turning into the shootout that a lot of people are expecting.

• Green Bay Packers +3
• Cowboys/Packers OVER 47.5

This feels like a letdown game for the Cowboys in my opinion. They're coming off of a huge win on the road against a division rival, and now go on the road again to face a Packers team that I really don't think is as bad as it looks. Despite all of the sacks (with that yardage factored in), Green Bay is still the 8th best team in the league in yards per pass attempt, which I find remarkable. Their run defense is currently doing a great job as well, as they're ranked second in the league in yards per rush attempt allowed. I think they can limit this Cowboys' rushing attack, turning this into a battle through the air, something which would be very helpful to the over. In the end, I think we're going to see a bit of a stinker out of Romo as he has a couple costly turnovers, and the Packers should capitalize and win this game outright in a high scoring affair.

• Dolphins/Bucs OVER 43

Miami's passing offense has been awful as of late, but luckily for them they're going against one of the worst defenses in the NFL. Miami's wildcat offense should see plenty of success against the third worst rushing defense in the NFL, and the passing game should wake up a bit as well. Considering that the Dolphins are the fourth best team in the league at scoring efficiency, I expect them to put up a good number of points. I don't think we'll need more than 14 points out of the Bucs to push this total over, and they should be capable of providing us with that.

• Eagles/Chargers OVER 47

As seen in last week's Giants game, all the Chargers are capable of doing is throwing the ball. They had some costly drops to kill some drives, but I don't think that will be an issue this week. The Eagles may have one of the better defenses in the NFL, but I think they'll struggle a bit against the passing attack of the Chargers. The Eagles also have one of the more explosive offenses in the NFL, but the Chargers' defense isn't nearly as good as the Eagles'. Both teams will be able to put up their fair share of points, this feels like a 24-27 type of game, possibly higher.

ATS System Plays (3-4):

• Packers +3
• Chiefs +1
• Seahawks +9
• Saints -13.5
  

Totals System Plays (2-2):

• Packers/Cowboys OVER 47.5
• Colts/Patriots UNDER 50
• Chiefs/Raiders UNDER 36.5
• Dolphins/Bucs OVER 43
• Eagles/Chargers OVER 47
  

As always, good luck to everyone this week!

Thursday Night System Play

For tonight's game, my system has Chicago +3.5. I'm not upgrading this to an official play, but I just thought everyone would be interested to know what it's picking. Good luck to anyone who makes a play on tonight's game!

Week 9 Monday Night Football Play

After flip-flopping a bit, I've decided to release a play tonight. We'll see if we can salvage a winning week after yet another bad break turned a potential 3-1 week into a 2-2 one (I'm looking at your Carolina.... shame on you for not turning it into a one score game in the waning minutes. A field goal would have given us the over. Fire your coach already). Tonight, I'm really liking Denver/Pitt UNDER 41. When Denver is on offense, it all starts with the run. A big part of their struggles scoring points against the Ravens was because they couldn't get their run game going, and tonight it won't be much easier for them going against the 8th ranked rush defense in the NFL. Pittsburgh has also managed to stay an elite pass defense, despite the absence of Polamalu for a chunk of the season. Currently the Pittsburgh pass defense ranks 7th in the league, and surely will make life difficult for Orton tonight. Considering that Denver's defense currently ranks better than the Steelers' in both these categories, the offense for Pittsburgh will be no cake-walk either. Neither of these offenses really have a serious big play threat, and will have long, clock eating drives when they do score. I think this is a 17-13 type of game, the total should go under no problem for us. Cross your fingers that there aren't defensive touchdowns! Good luck tonight guys!

Week 9 Picks

Let me lead off by apologizing that I forgot to put last week's plays up on the blog. For those of you who get my emails that wasn't much of an issue, but for some others it could have been. Week 8 was the first week of my system running, and while system plays went 3-3, the plays I upgraded to being official plays went 3-1. For those of you who didn't see my plays last week, you can find full documentation of my plays here.

Week 9 is an interesting week, with my system not finding nearly as much value in the lines as it normally does. However, with all of the plays that my system has generated this week, I've got a high enough confidence in each to make them official plays. I spent the week looking for additional plays I'd like to add, but I don't see a ton of value out there this week aside from what my system has already identified. So, we're going to have yet another week of just 4 plays, let's hope it goes just as well if not better than last week. Here's what I've got:

• Miami +10.5

I'm still not a believer that Brady is back, as the Titans absolutely lay down against the Patriots in Week 6 and Tampa Bay has one of the worst secondaries in the NFL. Aside from these two games, we've still seen nothing out of Brady to indicate that he's back to old form. Although Miami's pass defense is 6th worst in the league in pass yards per attempt allowed, they managed to hold the Saints down in the first half of that game by dialing up the pressure. I expect them to do similarly to Brady, and I don't think he'll be able to adjust to it as well as the Saints did late in the game.

Meanwhile, New England is 9th worst in the league at rushing yards per attempt allowed. Considering that they're going up against the wildcat this weekend, that's not good news for them. I think the Dolphins are able to exploit the Patriots' rush defense, while holding Brady in check for most of the game. Dolphins should keep this one within a touchdown, with an outside shot at stealing it outright.

• Saints/Panthers OVER 51.5

Every time I pick a Saints over it's starting to feel like a square pick, however there's no way to ignore it when the line is set this low. The Saints showed how much they missed Ellis last Monday as Turner had no trouble getting loose, and really ran well for the first time all season. Going against a run first team like Carolina, I think this weakness can be exploited and the Saints are going to have trouble slowing down the Panthers' ground game. Carolina should be able to put up their fair share of points.

We all know what to expect on the Saints' side of the ball. Brees is leading the most potent offense in the NFL, and will certainly make the most of any Saints drives. Brees will rack up the yardage, and so far the Panthers' defense is worst in the league at scoring efficiency. Saints shouldn't be held under 35, while I'd be surprised to see the Panthers fall short of 17. Should be another high scoring game in New Orleans.

• Packers/Bucs OVER 43.5

Here we have the 8th best passing offense in the league going against the worst passing defense in the league. The Packers should have no trouble moving the ball through the air, especially considering that Tampa Bay's defense has the third fewest sacks in the NFL. Sacks have been the main thing slowing the Green Bay offense so far this year, and I don't expect to see many of them on Sunday.

Tampa Bay's offense has been absolutely terrible so far this year, scoring just under 14 points a game. With yet another new quarterback finding the starting lineup, one has to wonder if my system wouldn't be prepared to assess such a change. However, the way I see it, when an offense is doing so badly, how could a change like this make it any worse? If my system likes the over with the dismal numbers we've seen out of Tampa so far, we can only hope that this change makes things better. Even if he turns the ball over 5 times, that'll just mean more short fields for the Packers and more chances to put points on the board. However, I expect Tampa shows a little life on offense and we see a 30-17 type of game.

• Giants/Chargers OVER 47.5

The Giants' secondary has been getting absolutely shredded lately, and they happen to be going against the 4th best passing offense in the league this week. The Chargers have also been the 6th best team in the league at turning their yardage into points, a category that the Giants' defense ranks second to last in. The Chargers have the pieces in place to put on an offensive show on their end of the ball.

The San Diego defense has been equally as bad at limiting opponents yardage from turning into points. They're currently 8th worst in the league at this, a bad sign for them because the Giants' offense is 7th best at pass yards per attempt and 11th at rush yards per attempt. I expect a bounce back effort from the New York offense this week, as they'll have to put up points on the scoreboard to stay in the game. Against this weak Chargers' defense, I don't expect that to be a problem and this game should be an easy over.

ATS System Plays (2-3):

• Miami +10.5

This is the first week I've ever seen my system only have one ATS play. This is not the norm and I don't expect to see it again any time soon.

Totals System Plays (1-0):

• Saints/Panthers OVER 51.5
• Packers/Bucs OVER 43.5
• Giants/Chargers OVER 47.5

As always, good luck to everyone this week!