Week 16 Plays

I've had what I consider to be a very disappointing last two weeks, despite still having a winning record over that span of 6-5-1. I feel like I've done a bad job filtering my plays, and I could have easily avoided some of those losers. So, I look to bounce back this week and get back to picking games at a higher level of success. I've fallen just a couple games off of my goal of 67%, so I'll have to really step it up to get back to that mark! Here's what I'm liking this weekend:

• New England Patriots -9

The Patriots have feasted on weak passing defenses this year, and this is exactly what they'll face this week against the Jaguars, who are 4th worst in the league at yards per pass attempt allowed. Since the Pats are a bottom 8 team at yards per rush attempt, and the Jags are top 8 in the league on defense in this category, it seems clear to me that the Patriots will choose to focus their attack through the air and really exploit this weakness. I doubt points are a problem for them in this one. The question that leaves is how dangerous the Jaguars' offense can be, and if they can keep up. At home this year the Patriots are allowing under 14 ppg, and on the road the Jaguars are averaging slightly above 14 ppg. With the Patriots' biggest weakness being their pass defense, and Jacksonville ranking 20th in the league at yards per pass attempt, I don't think they'll be able to exploit the Patriot defense and New England should come away with a double digit win.

• Houston Texans +1

Everyone knows that the Texans have struggled running the ball this year, with their greatest strength being passing (They rank 5th in the league in yards per pass attempt). So, when a team's greatest strength plays into their opponents' greatest weakness (Miami is 8th worst team in the league in yards per pass attempt allowed), I feel that there is a good opportunity for a win. Miami has allowed 31 ppg this year to teams that are top 8 in the league at throwing the ball, and I envision the Texans bouncing back from a dismal offensive performance last weekend against the Rams. Defensively, the Texans are average against the pass and slightly above average against the run, so I feel like the Dolphins offense will have some opportunities, but not as many as the Texans. I think the Texans will take this game and keep themselves alive for a playoff spot.

• New York Jets +5.5
• Jets/Colts UNDER 40.5

First of all, we don't know how much playing time the Colts' starters will be seeing in this game. It sounds like Freeney and Mathis will be used sparingly, and that it is quite possible Manning does not play the entire contest as the Colts continue to stress that 16-0 is not their goal. With Freeney and Mathis not on the field too often, I look for the Jets to advantage of their rushing attack (5th in yards per rush attempt), hopefully putting some long drives together and putting some points on the board. I'd expect that times the Jets start to get close would be when we're more likely to see Freeney and Mathis on the field, so the Jets may have to settle for field goals a few times. Meanwhile, when the Colts get opportunities, they certainly will have no easy task. The Jets have been one of the best defenses in the league, currently 5th best in yards per rush attempt allowed, and 1st in yards per pass attempt allowed. I expect them to frustrate Manning and really limit the Colts' opportunities to score, keeping this a defensive battle. In the end, whether Manning comes out of the game or not, I think we're likely to see a 17-13 type of game, with the Jets very possibly winning outright.

I'm going to hold it to that this weekend and see if getting more selective again can help right the ship! Good luck everyone!

Week 15 Plays

For the second week in a row I find myself making more plays than usual, however I feel like there are quite a few opportunities out there this week. Hopefully, we can get a few more wins this time around. Here's what I like this weekend:

• Texans -14
• Texans/Rams UNDER 43.5

This game is pretty clear cut in my mind. The Houston defense has been playing much better lately, and the Rams offense has been terrible all year. Now that the team has been hit with Swine Flu, and won't have Steven Jackson in the game to aid them, their offense is really going to struggle moving the ball. Kyle Boller is questionable to play, however given his lack of practicing this week I'd be surprised to see him out there, leaving the Rams with their 3rd string QB yet again. The Rams' defense will struggle keeping the Texans' offense in check, and the only way I see this total going over is if the Texans push it over with a mammoth point total. Worst case scenario we split these picks and eat a little juice, but I think there's a great chance we win them both with the Texans winning with a score in the neighborhood of 31-10.

• Browns +2
• Browns/Chiefs UNDER 37

This is a pretty unique game in the sense that both teams are bottom 8 in the league in rushing and passing yards/attempt on both offense and defense! It's pretty abysmal to be so bad in those phases of the game on both sides of the field. However, lately the Browns have shown signs of righting the ship, as they upset the Steelers on Thursday night, and haven't turned the ball over in their last four games. The Chiefs meanwhile, have continued to struggle. In their last four games, their defense has been as bad as ever, and they've turned the ball over 7 times. The only thing they've done well lately is run the ball with Charles, and very quietly the Browns rushing defense has been a top 8 unit in the league over their last five games. I expect neither team to light up the scoreboard, but for the Browns to have more scoring opportunities as they'll take better care of the ball and give Cribbs more opportunities to make plays. Browns should win this game something like 16-10.

• Tennessee Titans -5

It looks like Vince Young will be playing in this one, which I love considering that the Titans' passing offense is much better under him and the Dolphins have the 8th worst passing defense in the NFL. Like every other team, they'll have to dedicate a lot of energy into figuring out how to contain Chris Johnson, which will hopefully leave the passing game wide open for Young. The Titans are still throwing the ball great, and the speedier backs have been the type that give the Dolphins trouble. As I've said in the past, the Titans' biggest weakness has been their rushing defense. However, lately the Dolphins have abandoned the wildcat formation, and in their last three games they've run for under 4 yards/carry. I think the Titans can have their way on offense in this one, and if the Dolphins find themselves forced into throwing the ball I think we'll see some turnovers as well. Titans should cruise to a win by two scores.

Saturday Night Football Play

I'll be sending out an email with all my weekend plays in a bit, I'm running a bit behind on my writeups, but I just wanted to get this play out there first since the game is tonight:

• Dallas Cowboys +9

Although people have been making a big deal about the Cowboys' usual December Swoon and all the problems they are having, I think the Cowboys have a legitimate shot in this game. The Saints have been very banged up on defense in past weeks, and this week doesn't look to be much better with a number of players questionable and Jabari Greer already ruled out. Teams have been moving the ball no problem against them lately, and although the Cowboys have struggled converting their yardage into points I think that this is the week where they finally start finding the end zone a bit more. I like the Cowboys to attack on the ground in this one, as Felix Jones and Marion Barber shouldn't have much trouble establishing a running game, and I think that the threat of these two should open up the passing game for Romo as well. Dallas should put some solid drives together to at least keep themselves in the game, perhaps with a chance to win it at the end. So, in this spot, I'll take the Cowboys and hope they can keep it within one score.

Good luck to everyone tonight!

Week 14 Weekend Plays

Once again we hit the ground running with a Thursday Night Football win, and this week with a lot on the table that I'm liking, we're looking to have a big weekend to make it a very profitable week. Here's what I'm liking this weekend:

• Broncos/Colts UNDER 44

So far this season, the Colts have been an offensive juggernaut. However, most of their production has come through the passing game as the rushing offense has struggled, and they have yet to face a team that is top 12 in the league in yards/pass attempt allowed. Denver certainly falls into this category, as they come into this contest ranked #2 in the NFL allowing 5.24 yards/pass attempt. Considering that Denver has the 7th best rushing defense as well, it's hard to believe that Addai will get going and be able to produce much on the ground for the Colts. The Colts will find ways to score as they usually do, however I feel that they may be settling for field goals more than touchdowns come Sunday, scoring in the neighborhood of 23 points.

On Denver's side of the ball, this year they've tended to disappear when facing good defenses. I think what's going to hurt them in this game is their lack of passing offense. This season they're throwing the ball for 6.13 yards/pass attempt, which is 17th in the NFL, slightly below average. The Colts have been the 8th best passing defense this season, leading me to believe that Denver will have some trouble airing it out. Denver likely knows this, which will lead them to turning their attack to the ground, as they have the 10th best rushing offense in the NFL. The Colts' rush defense is nothing special, ranking 15th in the NFL, so I feel like we could be seeing the kinds of drives out of Denver where they burn up a few minutes of clock and wind up punting. All in all, I'm not sure who comes out of this game covering the spread, but I'm confident that it stays a lower scoring affair, making the under the play.

• Bengals +6.5
  
• Bengals/Vikings UNDER 43

Very quietly, the Bengals have been a top notch defensive unit, and in my opinion could be the best defense in the NFL. The Bengals rank 6th in yards per pass attempt allowed, 5th in yards per rush attempt allowed, and 2nd in defensive scoring efficiency. Although they're matched up against the Vikings, a team that has scored the 2nd most PPG in the NFL, I'm not too concerned. This is because of the soft schedule that the Vikings have played so far. Minnesota has played two teams above .500 so far this year, the Packers twice, both wins, and then the Cardinals, who put them to shame last Sunday Night. Other teams in the neighborhood of being good that they've played would be the 49ers, Steelers, and Ravens, two wins they had to fight hard for and a loss. In this game, I think Minnesota will face yet another test, and while I don't necessarily believe they'll lose outright, it will certainly be a close game. Despite the Bengals being a run heavy team, they've shown that they can throw the ball when they need to as they rank 16th in the NFL in yards/pass attempt. Should they find themselves unable to move the ball on the ground, I think Palmer and Ochcocinco can put some points on the board. However, in the process, I think the Bengals will find themselves facing a lot of 3rd and longs, which will hurt their ability to keep drives together so that they don't score too many points to push this total over. I think this is a sloppy game by both offenses, and stays lower scoring than people expect, with the Bengals covering in a hard fought game.

• Titans -13

After a very sloppy loss on the road last week against the Colts, the Titans return home to face the struggling Rams this week. St. Louis has a history of playing much worse on the road, and that history has held true so far this season as they've averaged about 9 ppg on the road. Take out their two shutout losses, and they've still only managed about 13.5 ppg. Against this Titans defense, you would expect the Rams to put some points on the board since they have Steven Jackson, and the Tennessee rush defense has been so terrible. However, I expect Tennessee to focus completely on shutting Jackson down, letting Boller beat them. Unfortunately for Boller, the Tennessee passing defense is an above average unit, and should be able to create a couple of turnovers against him.

On offense, the Titans should have no trouble moving the ball downfield. They moved the ball against a much better Indy defense last week, but were unable to convert their yardage into points on the scoreboard. With Chris Johnson going against the 6th worst rushing defense in the NFL, I expect the points to come a bit easier. Not to mention, Tennessee's passing attack should be able to get the job done as well as the Rams have the 8th worst passing defense in the NFL. Finally, combine that with the 4th worst scoring efficiency defense, and the pieces are all in place for a blowout win by the Titans. I'm slightly concerned about the health status of Young, but right now the signs point to him playing. Even if he doesn't, I think Kerry Collins will be able to get the job done as he's had time to work with the first string offense this week.

• Cowboys -3.5

At first glance this play looks like suicide given how hot the Chargers have been lately, combined with how streaky the Cowboys are. However, I'm convinced that this is a game that Dallas will win fairly comfortably. For starters, I think that this is the game where San Diego's lack of a rushing attack catches up with them. The Chargers currently are last in the NFL in yards per rush attempt, and if they become one dimensional against a team as good as the Cowboys that will certainly affect their offense. Also, despite being 2nd in the NFL in yards per pass attempt, the bulk of those numbers have either come from home games or against weak teams. In the Chargers' three true road tests, the Giants, Steelers, and Broncos, their passing offense has mustered only 5.78 yards per pass attempt, a far cry from their overall figure of 8.06.

The Cowboys' shot at winning this game will rely heavily on their rushing offense. They currently are the best rushing team in the NFL, and matched up against the 11th worst rushing defense in the NFL, I like their chances to keep the chains moving. If Dallas can put some long drives together, the Chargers likely will also struggle to get into a rhythm on offense. I think that Dallas will get the job done in this contest, playing a solid defensive game and putting some points on the board on offense. I think Dallas takes this by a touchdown.

That's all I've got for this week, good luck to everyone who decides to wager!

Hey guys! We cashed in our 6th straight winning week last week and we're looking to make it 7 in a row! I'm going to go ahead and release one play for Thursday Night, this play comes mostly from the weather conditions for the game. Here's what I like:

• Steelers/Browns UNDER 33.5

Weather is going to have a huge impact in this game, as we're going to have sustained Southwest winds of 25-35 mph and snow falling. The wind is going to be a crosswind on the field, which favors low scoring more than if it were going directionally. With these conditions, you can expect each team to load up the box to stop the run, daring the other to throw deep on them. Given the wind, I doubt we'll see any long completions resulting in quick scores.

Now let's look at how each team is equipped to deal with this situation. For starters, Steelers WR Hines Ward is dealing with a hamstring injury, and most likely won't play in this game. Pittsburgh's strength this year has been throwing the ball, as they're 4th best in the NFL at yards per pass attempt. With the conditions limiting how effective their air game an be, they'll likely focus on running the ball. While their rushing offense is slightly above average, with the Browns focusing on shutting it down due to the weather conditions, I don't expect a ton of production on the ground for them. On Cleveland's side of the ball, without poor conditions they've been the worst passing offense in the NFL, with their rushing offense ranking 4th worst. Factoring in the weather, I think there is a legitimate chance they don't make it to double digit points. We're likely looking at a sloppy game with a few turnovers, and extreme difficulty kicking field goals. With all of that in mind, the under is the clear play here. Good luck to anyone who bets on the game!

Week 13 Weekend Plays

We've benefited from winning Thursdays a few weeks in a row now, and like previous weeks I'm hoping to continue the momentum. I feel like this weekend is a bit tougher than most, but I've still come up with a few plays that I feel pretty good about. Here's what I like this weekend:

• Tennessee Titans +6.5

It feels like almost everybody is on this play already, which as I mentioned last week in my Dolphins play always worries me a bit. However, I simply can't ignore the recent level of play by the Titans. Vince Young has revitalized the offense, Tennessee is throwing for 7.39 yards/pass attempt and rushing for 5.5 yards/carry, 4th and 1st best in the NFL. On defense, their rushing defense has been a bit of a problem, however the Colts have the 9th worst rushing offense in the NFL so I expect that this won't be a huge issue. The key I see here is the Titans' pass defense. They've played much better of late, as the unit is starting to get healthy and they've been the 5th best defense in the NFL in terms of passing yards per attempt allowed.

This is a much different Titans team than the Colts saw earlier this season, and I don't think that Tennessee will repeat the mistake of giving Johnson the ball only 9 times. I don't think the Colts' defense will be able to shut Tennessee's offense down, and that the Titans will be able to slow the Indy offense just enough to give themselves a chance to win this game. I'll take the points and hope the Titans get the job done.

• Washington Redskins +9.5

After an impressive Monday Night win over the Patriots, I think this is an obvious letdown spot for the Saints. After their last Monday Night victory over the Panthers they showed some signs of letting down, before the Panthers handed them the game and they won by 10. I think that they'll struggle even a little more in this spot, especially because the game is on the road. Another factor to take into consideration in this one is that Washington has the 4th best pass defense in the NFL, allowing just 5.48 yards/pass attempt. The only other opponent that the Saints have played that was ranked top 8 in pass defense was the Jets, and they held the Saints to 10 offensive points. Buffalo, the 9th ranked pass defense, also held Brees in check and limited the Saints to 27 points, their second lowest point total of the year. So, given the facts that Washington is strong against the pass and this is a letdown spot, I think the Saints will likely be held under 30 points.

So, given that I feel the Saints' offense may struggle a bit, the question becomes how effectively the Redskins can keep up on the scoreboard. Two of Washington's last three games they've topped 21 points, and I'm starting to think that their offense may be coming together. The Saints will also be without 4 defensive players on Sunday, and I think the letdown from Monday Night will be even more apparent on the defensive side of the ball. The Redskins should be able to put some solid drives together and make a game of this one, as they'll probably try to attack the Saints on the ground all game, and succeed. Again, I'll take the points and hope that the Redskins come ready to play.

That's it this week! Good luck to everyone tomorrow!

I've decided on releasing two Thursday Night plays for the first time this season, but with good reason. I'm very confident in both of these plays, as long as the Jets show up these should win no problem. Here's what I'm thinking for tonight:

• New York Jets -3
• Jets/Bills UNDER 37

To begin, let's note that this game is in Canada and not Buffalo's true home stadium. The past two weeks, the Bills have looked like a different team as Fitzpatrick has thrown for 583 yards (291.5 y/gm). However, there are some factors that need to be taken into account. First of all, these games have been against the Jaguars and Dolphins, the 3rd and 9th worst pass defenses in the NFL. Secondly, this week the Bills find themselves against the Jets, the #1 ranked pass defense in the NFL. Over those two games, Terrell Owens has experienced a resurgence, as he has accounted for 293 yards receiving, over half of Fitzpatrick's total yardage. This week, he faces Revis, who we've all become familiar with as the best corner in the NFL. After shutting down Steve Smith last week (1 catch for 5 yards), Revis should have no problem with the slower Owens. Sure Owens has size, but so did Randy Moss and Andre Johnson, and Revis took care of them as well. Not to mention that in their first meeting Revis held him to just 13 yards receiving. When you also consider that Buffalo's rush offense is 19th in the NFL in yards per rush attempt, and that they're going against the 6th best rushing defense in the NFL, I just can't see how this offense will move the ball at all. Their best offense might be their defense, as they'll have to hope that Mark Sanchez turns the ball over multiple times as he did in their first meeting, which is always a possibility. I don't think that this will happen though, as the Jets will take advantage of the fact that the Bills have the 2nd worst rushing defense in the NFL, and keep the majority of their offense to the ground. I think the Jets will have some time consuming drives, while the Bills will simply not get many opportunities and struggle when they do. I'd be shocked if the Bills topped 13 points in this one, as the Jets might even flirt with shutting their offense out. I see the Jets winning comfortably, along the lines of 20-6.

Good luck to those of you who decide to make a wager tonight!

Stats and Information Through 12 Weeks

It's been a hell of a first 12 weeks, with my plays sitting at 35-17 ATS (67.3%). It's hard to believe we're so far into the season already, and while my system has not been performing great or producing as many plays as last year, we've still found ways to succeed. In just nine weeks, we'll be on to Superbowl Sunday, which hopefully will be closing out a very successful year. I'm hoping to have sent out about 90 plays by then and still be hitting in the neighborhood of 67%, but as usual, I will not force anything.

Allow me to update you on how my system is doing. Since it kicked off Week 8 until now, it has produced a record of merely 20-16 ATS (55.56%). This isn't even close to where it was at this point last year, and I've been taking some in depth looks to try to figure out where the problem is. Luckily, I think I've found the answer. A key stat that my system uses is yards per point scored. I have data going back to 2004 on this system, and on the teams each year. From 2004-2008, there were a grand total of 4 teams that had a mark of 20 yards per point scored or worse. At this point this season, we currently have 5 teams that rank this poorly, including the Rams, who have the worst offensive efficiency my system has ever seen. I have to believe that this is a large part in what is throwing off my system, so although I will continue to look at it this season and let it weigh into my decisions, I will certainly keep more of a level head about it capabilities. In future years, I expect teams' offenses to return to the norm and for my system to become a valuable asset again.

As you've seen from a couple previous emails of mine, I like to see how my plays compare to the "Experts" tracked by the Oklahoma Sports Monitor. Unfortunately these people charge hefty sums of money for their plays, while the vast majority of them fail to produce records that show they deserve it. Not only that, but the services that top the chart year to year are often one hit wonders, who you never see ranked that high again. If I were being tracked this year (The $350 charge to be tracked by them is all that is stopping me), I'd currently be ranked 3rd in winning percentage, 2nd in Rate of Return, and 1st in Net Wins. If you were to compare me only to services that have released over 50 plays so far this year, I'd be ranked 1st in every category. I take a great deal of pride in this fact, especially given the fact that I offer all of these plays for free.

This leads me to my final point - donations. I've never been one to go out of my way to ask for money, however over the past year and a half I have been asked a few times if I accept donations. I just wanted to make everyone aware that I now have a link up on my site that will take you to a paypal page that will accept donations on my behalf the remainder of this season. If you would like to donate by a different method, feel free to email me and we could figure something out. This is by no means a requirement, it is completely your decision depending on how much I've helped you profit this season and if you're feeling generous. You will not stop receiving plays or anything like that if you choose not to donate. If any of you feel like donating, thank you in advance, it is greatly appreciated!

Moving on from that, I'd just like to let you all know that I may have a play or even two for tomorrow night's game, I'm going to do a bit more research before making my final decision. I'll send out an email in the afternoon informing everyone if there is a play. Good luck to everyone the remainder of the season!