Football season is here!

Tomorrow kicks off the 2009/2010 football season with the NFL Hall of Fame Game, the first preseason football game of the year. In just a few short weeks we'll be kicking off the regular season, so now is as good of a time as any to begin looking ahead at what to expect in the year to come.

I'm excited to be back and providing picks for you all again after a successful season last year. Although my new website has hit a temporary delay, I hope I can get it up midway through this upcoming season. If for some reason I can't, we'll just have to wait again until next year. A winner is a winner regardless of where it is posted. My goals are high for this upcoming season, I'm looking to hit 67% on my official plays. I know the goal is lofty, but I believe I can reach it if I put in the necessary time and my system is clicking as well as it did last year.

After last season concluded, I took an in depth look at the system I had created, analyzing it's strengths and weaknesses. I also took it and ran through the previous five NFL seasons to determine how it would have performed, and when enough stats have accumulated for me to feel that the picks are reliable. Based on the stats alone the system's strongest plays hit about 60% throughout the five seasons, so it appears to be consistent. Last season I kicked my system off in Week 8, and after careful consideration I have decided that I will do the same this year. The problem with starting up earlier is one great game or terrible game by a team throws everything off, because it simply carries too much weight.

Although I will not have a statistical system backing my plays before Week 8, I'll do my best to pick winners anyways. As always, I caution anybody who wants to place money on these picks, mostly because it is only my third season betting NFL and I have never kept a detailed record of what percent of plays I can hit on my own. Even with the system backing me, I will always preach that past performance does not guarantee future results, so if you bet please use caution.

I will track my record by wins and losses, I have no desire to play with units. I'll let my winning percentage speak for itself rather than hiding behind how many units I've won. If I'm 0-3 and down 15 units, what's to keep me from putting 25 units on my next game, winning, and then saying I'm up 10 units for the season? Sure, maybe I'm up, but you learn nothing about how good of a capper I really am. When tracking my record this year, I will break it into a few different categories. Here are the following categories and what each means:

Official Plays: I have researched the game and I feel that one team is clearly the team to bet. Also, my system backs the same team with the appropriate strength. You will not see any of these plays until Week 8 since my system will not be running until then.

Personal Plays: Plays that I like that my system does not for some reason. All plays before Week 8 will be personal plays.

Computer Plays: Any play my system says to make that is strong enough to be considered for an official play. This includes plays I may personally disagree with. These plays also will not be seen until Week 8.

I will not be picking any preseason games, I won't waste my time or yours. However, from Week 1 until the Superbowl I will provide you all with what I hope to be winning picks, all for free. I hope you all enjoy the preseason football action, see you in the fall!