I'm releasing plays a little early this week simply because I don't have very many of them so researching into the games didn't take too long. This is a pretty tough week for picks due to multiple areas of uncertainty surrounding most of the games, and the fact that we don't know if/when certain starters will be rested. I'm a bit uneasy about making any picks at all, but this year I'll go ahead and take a stab at a few that I think are the safest and offer the best value. Regardless whether the week winds up being a good or bad one, I'll watch closely, determine if Week 17 games are a good idea to be betting on, and use that knowledge to decide if I'll pick Week 17 games in future years. Anyways, here are the plays that I think are safest this week:
The Chiefs have been playing a lot better than people give them credit for, despite finding ways to lose in the end. They've been playing playoff caliber teams tough, and the Bengals are nowhere near that. Despite Cinci being on a nice little run lately, I can't say they've been impressive, beating a struggling Redskins team and the awful Cleveland Browns; who I'd say are playing worse football than the Lions right now. When everything is said and done, I think the Chiefs come away with a win.First of all, even if the Giants didn't play any starters this whole game I think they'd find a way to lose by a touchdown or less. However, this won't be the case as Coughlin plans to play his guys and keep them fresh. We may not see Jacobs getting 15 carries, but who cares? Ward and Bradshaw have more than enough talent to establish a running game against a Vikings' defense without one of their key guys. Add in the fact that the Vikings have a history of choking in important games, and I feel like the Giants could easily win this one outright. I'm a glutton for punishment, looking for the Lions to help push a totals play over again. I'm going to try not to read too much into the mere 7 points they put up against a poor Saints' defense since some of their players were battling the flu, notably Orlovsky. This shapes up to be a game where the desperate Lions are doing everything they can to take advantage of their last chance to win a game, and I think that results in the putting up some points against an underachieving Packers defense. I think this looks like a 27-20 type of game, so I'm going with the over.The Rams' defense has been decent lately, and their offense has remained inept despite the return of Steven Jackson. The Falcons will still show up to play in this game since they are playing for the 2 seed rather than just a wild card spot, so even though they'll get their points I think their defense will still show up and keep the Rams side of things reasonable. I can't see the Rams scoring more than 17, and I can't see more than 27 out of the Falcons either. Considering that my worst case scenario still has the game going under, I'm confident enough to recommend it.- 49ers Redskins Under 37.5
It's been weeks since we've seen anything out of the Washington offense, and against a decent 49ers defense I see no reason to believe anything will change. Likewise, San Francisco has struggled on offense lately, but they do get stud RB Frank Gore back in this game. However, Washington's solid defense should still be able to keep the 49ers from putting too many points on the board, and although I'm not sure which team will be winning this game I highly doubt either team tops 20, just like I doubt both teams get there. I think 20-17 is the highest scoring this game could get, so I'm going with the under here.That's all I'm going with this week, so hopefully we finish the regular season on a high note. I'm going to continue making picks up until the super bowl if I see value; I'm currently looking at last year's playoffs to see what kind of predictions my program would have spat out and if there is any way to improve upon them. Regardless of what I find, you can count on me to be ready, and I look forward to a great end to the 2008/2009 season! Good luck to everyone this weekend!
Stumble It!