Week 17 Plays

I'm releasing plays a little early this week simply because I don't have very many of them so researching into the games didn't take too long. This is a pretty tough week for picks due to multiple areas of uncertainty surrounding most of the games, and the fact that we don't know if/when certain starters will be rested. I'm a bit uneasy about making any picks at all, but this year I'll go ahead and take a stab at a few that I think are the safest and offer the best value. Regardless whether the week winds up being a good or bad one, I'll watch closely, determine if Week 17 games are a good idea to be betting on, and use that knowledge to decide if I'll pick Week 17 games in future years. Anyways, here are the plays that I think are safest this week:

• Kansas City Chiefs +3

The Chiefs have been playing a lot better than people give them credit for, despite finding ways to lose in the end. They've been playing playoff caliber teams tough, and the Bengals are nowhere near that. Despite Cinci being on a nice little run lately, I can't say they've been impressive, beating a struggling Redskins team and the awful Cleveland Browns; who I'd say are playing worse football than the Lions right now. When everything is said and done, I think the Chiefs come away with a win.

• New York Giants +7

First of all, even if the Giants didn't play any starters this whole game I think they'd find a way to lose by a touchdown or less. However, this won't be the case as Coughlin plans to play his guys and keep them fresh. We may not see Jacobs getting 15 carries, but who cares? Ward and Bradshaw have more than enough talent to establish a running game against a Vikings' defense without one of their key guys. Add in the fact that the Vikings have a history of choking in important games, and I feel like the Giants could easily win this one outright.

• Lions Packers Over 43

I'm a glutton for punishment, looking for the Lions to help push a totals play over again. I'm going to try not to read too much into the mere 7 points they put up against a poor Saints' defense since some of their players were battling the flu, notably Orlovsky. This shapes up to be a game where the desperate Lions are doing everything they can to take advantage of their last chance to win a game, and I think that results in the putting up some points against an underachieving Packers defense. I think this looks like a 27-20 type of game, so I'm going with the over.

• Falcons Rams Under 44.5

The Rams' defense has been decent lately, and their offense has remained inept despite the return of Steven Jackson. The Falcons will still show up to play in this game since they are playing for the 2 seed rather than just a wild card spot, so even though they'll get their points I think their defense will still show up and keep the Rams side of things reasonable. I can't see the Rams scoring more than 17, and I can't see more than 27 out of the Falcons either. Considering that my worst case scenario still has the game going under, I'm confident enough to recommend it.

• 49ers Redskins Under 37.5

It's been weeks since we've seen anything out of the Washington offense, and against a decent 49ers defense I see no reason to believe anything will change. Likewise, San Francisco has struggled on offense lately, but they do get stud RB Frank Gore back in this game. However, Washington's solid defense should still be able to keep the 49ers from putting too many points on the board, and although I'm not sure which team will be winning this game I highly doubt either team tops 20, just like I doubt both teams get there. I think 20-17 is the highest scoring this game could get, so I'm going with the under here.

That's all I'm going with this week, so hopefully we finish the regular season on a high note. I'm going to continue making picks up until the super bowl if I see value; I'm currently looking at last year's playoffs to see what kind of predictions my program would have spat out and if there is any way to improve upon them. Regardless of what I find, you can count on me to be ready, and I look forward to a great end to the 2008/2009 season! Good luck to everyone this weekend!

Week 16 MNF

I'm uneasy about tonight's Bears Packers game, so I'm not going to be recommending any plays. My program shows Packers +4 and the Over, but these are not official plays! I'm going to pack in a 5-3 Week despite my frustration over how easily it could have been a solid 6-2 if it hadn't been for the Lions and Saints passing on field goals that would have given us the over win. I'll begin gearing up for week 17, and hopefully we'll finish the regular season with another winning week.

Week 16 Sunday Picks

The end of the NFL regular season is nearly upon us, so I'm looking to end it with a bang. I've narrowed down my plays to 7 selections that I feel like have a great chance of hitting on Sunday. I've done the best I can to factor weather in to all of these plays, so I feel pretty confident I have that angle covered. Here are the plays I'm liking for this week:

ATS:

• Arizona Cardinals +8

I know Arizona has been terrible out east so far this year but I think this line is just ridiculous. I continue to think the Patriots are badly over rated, and by the numbers Arizona should win this game outright. I won't go as far as to predict this since they have been horrible on the road, but I can't see them losing this game by more than 7. With the weather supposed to be sloppy, both teams will probably have a more difficult time than usual putting points on the board, making this a close final score.

• Buffalo +6

Another game I think the dog could win outright, but Buffalo should at least keep it close. Lynch will run through the terrible Denver defense, and Buffalo is coming off a near win against the Jets despite a terrible game by Losman. Denver meanwhile, was just destroyed by Carolina, and if San Diego loses their noon game Denver will know they have clinched the division and probably will experience a bit of a letdown. All in all, I think Buffalo is a great play here.

• New Orleans Saints -7

Brees is gunning for Marino's yardage record, and he's going against the worst defense in the NFL. The Lions played one of their best games of the year against Indy last week, but still found themselves as losers by 10 points. Although the Saints aren't usually great on the road, Detroit isn't exactly a hostile environment, and any Saints fan can get tickets to the game since the Lions aren't selling out. Plus, in a dome, the Saints should feel right at home and playing in a familiar environment. I think the Saints at worst win by 10, but probably more.

• New York Jets -3.5

This line has fallen from -5 since earlier this week, if it continues to drop do your best to get it at 3, maybe even consider buying the half point. I'm probably most nervous about this pick given the way the Jets have been playing lately and played out west at Oakland earlier this year; but I have enough confidence that they'll show up to play since they are in such a tough fight for a playoff spot. I can see the Jets winning this by a touchdown, conditions in Seattle aren't supposed to be great, so if the teams choose to keep it on the ground more I think that significantly favors the Jets.

Totals:

• Saints Lions Over 49.5

I said earlier I can see the Saints putting up 35 in this game, well I think Detroit will get their fair share of points as well. I think Detroit scores at least 17, so with that in mind all New Orleans has to do is live up to my expectations offensively.

• 49ers Rams Under 41.5

Both of these defenses have been playing pretty well lately, and Frank Gore may be absent from the 49ers offense again. Even if he is back, I don't expect him to be playing at his highest level. I think winner of this game will score 20 points, keeping the total under 41.5.

• Browns Bengals Under 31.5

Interestingly enough, my program predicted this game to be a 14-10 type game, and that was without factoring in the weather. With conditions set to be sloppy for this matchup, and two backup quarterbacks running the offense, this seems like a pretty safe bet to go under in my opinion.

That's all I have for this week, I probably won't have a Monday Night play but I'll send out an email or post an update regarding that Monday afternoon. Good luck to everyone this week!

Week 16 Saturday Night Football

For those of you who bet the over in the Thursday night game, I congratulate you for finding the one bet that was worth putting your money on. That is why I stayed away from the game, I felt it could easily go one way or the other for high or low scoring and I felt like it was a pretty well set spread. As you could see, my lean towards Jacksonville didn't quite pan out, but since it wasn't a recommended play I have no regrets.

For Saturday's showdown between Dallas and Baltimore, I see a little more value than in Thursday night's game, but I'm still not wild about it. My programs seem to like the over more than anything, but with the way the defenses have been playing lately I can't feel confident enough in this play to recommend it. However, I'm going to go ahead and take a play ATS that I think has a pretty good chance of winning. I like Baltimore +4 in this game, as do my programs. When everything is said and done, I can easily see Baltimore winning this game outright, and if they were to lose I can't see it being by more than a field goal.

The reason I'm this confident in Baltimore is because of their defense compared to the Cowboys. Despite the Dallas improvement on D, they still are nowhere near the level Baltimore has reached. Flacco still isn't getting enough respect on offense (The Baltimore passing offense averages exactly what their opponent defenses have allowed), and Romo isn't exactly the best at taking care of the ball. Marion Barber probably will play about the same role he did against the Giants, and I doubt he will be anywhere near effective, especially against the Raven's stout defense. Even if Choice gets all the carries, he hasn't faced a defense nearly this good. I think it comes down to turnovers in the end, and Baltimore will do a better job of taking care of the ball than Dallas.

Good luck to anyone who decides to bet on the game tomorrow!

Week 16 TNF

There is no play tonight for TNF, I see absolutely no value in a totals play, and minimal value picking either team ATS. I would slightly lean towards Jacksonville +6, but once again, this is not a play that is being recommended or will count towards my record. Good luck to any of you who decide to bet, I'll announce any possible Saturday Night Football plays Friday.

Week 15 MNF

Sitting at a 4-4-1 Week so far, I'm going to recommend one play for tonight's game and hopefully get above .500 for the week. Tonight, bet Browns Eagles Over 40. I feel like there is a good chance this bet is a winner, so do what you will with that information. If I had to pick for sides, I'd go with Cleveland +16, but this is not an official play. Good luck tonight!

Week 15 Picks

Going into the weekend, we have a decent Week 15 start going 1-0-1 Thursday, bringing our YTD record to 35-24-1. I'm liking this weekend's slate of games quite a bit, more-so for ATS plays than totals. I'm releasing 7 plays for this weekend, any less than 5 wins would be disappointing to me. Here's what I'm going with this weekend.

Totals:

• Bengals Redskins Under 36.5
• Seahawks Rams Under 42

ATS:

• Detroit Lions +17
• New York Giants +3
• San Diego Chargers -5.5
• San Francisco 49ers +6
• Tennessee Titans -3

Good luck to everyone this week!

Week 15 TNF

Following a tough week, I'm ready to bounce back and get back on the winning side of things. My program likes this week's set of games much better than last week's, so I'm optimistic we won't have a repeat performance of last week. I'm going to go ahead and release two plays for tonight, remember that these aren't "Guaranteed" or "5 Star Locks", they're simply plays that I believe have a significantly better chance of hitting than not. Tonight, go with:

• New Orleans Saints +3
• Saints Bears Over 46

Good luck to everyone tonight!

Week 14 Picks

Not a ton jumped out at me this weekend as great plays, but I used my program to make a few picks that I'm pretty confident will hit. I love three overs, which my programs happen to as well, and although my programs didn't show a ton of value for any ATS plays, I found some plays that I feel pretty good about that my programs also agree with. So, I feel pretty confident our winning ways will continue this weekend and that these are the plays to go with.

Totals Plays

• Falcons Saints Over 51.5
• Packers Texans Over 47.5
• Jets 49ers Over 44.5

ATS Plays

• New York Jets -3.5
• Tennessee -14
  
• Minnesota Vikings -10
• Jacksonville +6.5

Check back Monday for any potential plays, good luck to everyone this weekend!

Week 14 Thursday Night Football

• Raiders Chargers Under 42.5

After reviewing my program results, I've decided that this is the play to go with. Both my season long program and program that goes off of recent performance like this as a play, so I'm feeling pretty good about it. The only way I could see this total going over is if San Diego blows Oakland out, but the Oakland defense has been much better than their offense so far this year and I believe they'll keep it close. If I had to lean one way for an ATS Play, I'd lean towards Oakland +9, but this is not an official play. I also think an attractive teaser option is Oakland +15, Under 48.5, but as usual teasers won't count towards my record. I haven't kept careful track, but I believe I am 3-0 on recommended teasers. As usual, past program performance does not guarantee future results, so keep your wagering within your limits. Hopefully this play turns out to be as good as I think it is, and we keep our momentum going into the weekend. Good luck on your bets Thursday Night!

Week 13 MNF

MNF Play:

• Jacksonville +3
  

Although I included a MNF pick in yesterday's picks, I'll post it separately to avoid any confusion. Tonight, my program likes Jacksonville +3, and with Schaub still not starting I feel like I can trust the program and keep this as a pick. My program also seems to like the game to go under 48.5, but I am not going to include this as a play. I'm including that information for those of you who were thinking about betting a total, but I'm not confident enough in it to recommend it as a play. Hopefully we can get our 10th win of the week tonight, and have a solid 10-2 record for Week 13. If for some reason the Jaguars can't get it done, I'll take a 9-3 week and still feel pretty good about it. Good luck to everyone who decides to bet tonight!