MNF Play:
- Arizona San Francisco over 47.5
Although Arizona is amazing at home, the high spread makes me a little wary of taking that pick. My system also doesn't show much value in that pick, so I'm going to stay away from that play and just stick with the totals play. My system loves this game to go over 47.5, and I can't find any reason to disagree. Arizona's high flying offense against the weak 49er defense should put up a good number of points, and although San Francisco has struggled lately they always give Arizona a good fight. Frank Gore always seems to go off against them, so I think the 49ers will put up enough points of their own to make sure this total goes over.
Recapping Week 10, although all of my plays for the Week went a combined 10-4, I am actually disappointed with that result. I am most unhappy with the fact that all four losses came from what I deemed "Official" plays, that is bad capping on my part. In order to avoid this from happening again, I will no longer split my plays between "Leans" and "Official Plays", from this point on if I post it it's a play. So, if you take my Week 9 picks from HERE and combine them with my Week 10 posted plays, that brings my YTD record to 16-5!
Updating my system record, when it is showing a value of over 5 it has a record of 9-3 this year. If I factor out its Dallas pick from last week due to it not factoring in the Romo injury, that brings the record to an impressive 9-2 ATS. On its top totals plays, a value above 8 (suggesting an over) or below -8 (suggesting an under), it has posted at an outstanding 7-1 record! Tonight's Arizona San Francisco pick falls under this category, which gives me more than enough confidence to recommend it.
I'll caution you all once again, just because plays for future weeks might fall into these categories doesn't guarantee they'll keep hitting at this rate. Nothing is guaranteed, I'm well aware this could take a complete 180 at any time. However, until this day comes I'm going to keep riding these picks and hoping for the best.
One final note on my system, I am still working on improving upon it so it will factor in injuries and recent positional changes better when making its plays. When I have made the change I'll watch it for a week to see how it performs, and when I am ready to switch systems or begin factoring my new one into my decisions I will let you all know.
I'll begin working towards a Thursday night play and email it tomorrow or Wednesday, posting it on the site shortly after. Best of luck to all of you tonight if you choose to make a play!
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