Week 13 Picks

Here are the plays that my program has that I like the most this week:

Totals:

• Kansas City Oakland Under 41.5
• Miami St. Louis Under 44
• Buffalo San Francisco Over 43.5

ATS:

• Atlanta Falcons+4.5
• Jacksonville Jaguars +3
• New York Giants -3
• Pittsburgh Steelers +1
• Carolina Panthers +3
• Baltimore Ravens -7

Good luck to everyone this weekend!

Thanksgiving Plays

Three plays are looking good to me for the Thanksgiving games. Here's what I'm going to be playing:

Cardinals Eagles OVER 46.5
Arizona Cardinals +3
Tennessee Titans -11

Everyone have a great Thanksgiving!

Week 12 Recap

Decent week, going 6-4 on my posted plays. As you all could see I left a few winners in my pocket, wasting a potential 10-4 week, but sometimes that's the way it goes. Next time, hopefully it'll be losers instead that get left out. 6-4 is about on the bubble of what I consider acceptable, 60% isn't bad but I have my goals set much higher. If I can finish off the season at about 65% I'd be thrilled, and I'm going to continue doing everything in my power to make that happen. I kicked off my new program this past weekend as you all know, it went 10-5-1 ATS and 11-5 on its totals plays, an impressive start. I'm going to sit back and observe it one more week, I'd like to have a larger sample size before I decide to make a switch over. That was my biggest mistake when I began releasing plays to all of you, I didn't give myself enough time to learn my program and figure out its strengths and weaknesses, I feel like I could have avoided that 5-8 week had I waited a little longer to start doing this. However, hindsight is 20/20 and instead of looking back I'm going to keep on looking forward. Tomorrow I'll determine Thanksgiving plays, hopefully getting us off to a solid start in week 13.

Week 12 MNF

A quick apology that this is going up so late, I've been really busy today. I have two picks I like a lot tonight, here they are:

Packers (PK)
Packers Saints OVER 51.5

Good luck tonight everyone!

Sunday Week 12 Picks

This week, I had a little bit of a challenge narrowing down plays. My program produced a couple totals plays that looked a little fishy, so I removed those, but most of the ATS picks looked very good to me. Here is what I finally decided on for my selections.

Totals:

• Cardinals Giants OVER 48
• Falcons Panthers UNDER 43
• Cowboys 49ers OVER 46.5

ATS:

• Carolina Panthers +1
• Houston Texans +3
• New York Giants -3
• San Francisco 49ers +10
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers -8

I'm feeling pretty confident about all of these games, even if Burress were to not play I'd still back the Giants in this spot. A few other teams that barely missed the cut were Jets +5.5, Bills -3, and Chicago -8. However, for various reasons I didn't find these to be as safe of plays as my others, so I will not be including them. Everyone check back before Sunday Night Football, after the afternoon games are finished I may decide to release a play or two for it, I'll determine that based off of how well/poorly things are going. Good luck on Sunday!

Week 12 Thursday Night Football

For Thursday Night Football, I will not be releasing any plays. I don't see enough value in either play, so I'm just going to stay away from this game. For anyone who wants to know, my program leans towards Pittsburgh -11 and the Under, but like I said before neither value is high enough for me to recommend it as a play. Pittsburgh -11 comes closest to being a play, but I am staying away from double digit favorites and the value is just under the standard I have set. A teaser that looks pretty good to me would be Pittsburgh -5 and Under 40.5, but as usual teasers won't count towards my record. Good luck tonight!

How I Make my Picks

I have been getting a lot of questions about how exactly my program works so I've decided try to help clear up how exactly it works and how I use it for making my picks. As I've noted in the past, my program is based completely on NFL stats. The main areas I look are passing stats, rushing stats, return stats, and scoring stats. I take these for each team, both offensively and defensively.

I don't just limit myself to stats you find on ESPN though, I take these stats and make some new ones in areas that I think are important. For example, we know Arizona has scored 28.9 points per game, thrown for 7.57 yards per attempt (This is a bit different than the number you'll see on ESPN since they don't count a sack as a pass attempt, but subtract sack yards from passing yards. If you ask me, that doesn't make much sense), rushed for 3.45 yards per attempt, and has returns of 16.31 yards per attempt. These stats may look important on their own, but what exactly do they mean? How do these numbers compare to what their opponents allow on average? How efficient are they in turning these yards into points? These are two of the main categories that my program calculates that you won't find on NFL websites, currently Arizona throws for 1.33 yards per attempt better than expected, rushes for -0.44 yards per attempt worse than expected, and scored 1 point for every 13.59 yards of offense (or 1 point for every 21 passing yards and 1 point for every 9.48 rush yards if you want to get more specific).

I understand some of that may be confusing, I apologize if it is, it is very difficult to explain. That is just a brief idea of what my program calculates, it goes over many more things and goes more in depth than that even. Hopefully you have a little bit better of an idea of what it does though. So, when the formulas are all done, it will arrive at certain stats, such as expected pass attempts and expected yards per pass attempt for the upcoming game based on the team's stats and its opponent's stats. The final step it takes it to multiply these two numbers to get predicted passing yards, then, using the scoring efficiency stats, determines how many points the team will get off of these yards. Once passing, rushing, returns, and miscelaneous points (INT Returns, PATS, 2 Point Conversions etc...) are factored in, the final result is a predicted score for the game. I look at the predicted margin of victory or loss, and add the spread, and see what the resulting number is. The higher the number, the greater the value, thus the better the results should be. Currently, if a team has a value of higher than 5 in my program, and is not a favorite of more than 9 points (unfortunately I didn't notice this until this week), the team is a stunning 12-2 ATS. Of course past performance does not guarantee future results, but I am going to be paying quite a bit of attention to this until it begins to fail me.

Now, let me just take a moment to say, I understand that you cannot use NFL stats alone to predict outcomes of games. I know there are tons of other variables that affect each game, such as key player injuries, a team's recent turnaround, or other factors such as this. That is where I come in. While my program tells me who to pick based on the numbers, I look at the games and figure out where my program is most likely to be wrong. Also, this week I am ready to give a test run of the program that will factor in recent performance of teams to better factor in injuries that have recently occurred. Take the Chiefs for example, for the first 2/3 of the season they had no passing attack whatsoever. However, now that Thigpen is in they have performed much better than early in the season. So, instead of taking season long stats that still weigh in those weeks without Thigpen, I will be looking at the past 4 weeks when Thigpen has been quarterback to determine their passing stats instead. Anyways, bottom line is I will never recommend a game just because my program said it was a good play, I will always closely examine the matchup and see if anything could throw the program off and look for things the program can't predict, such as weather.

I really do hope this better explains what I do. I'm aware its probably kind of wordy in places but I did struggle with trying to figure out how to explain all of this. I just ask that although we just came off of a bad week, you continue to follow along and trust I will get things turned around. I can assure you I am putting the necessary time in to do this, and I look forward to many good weeks to come.

Week 11 Recap and MNF

I'll begin by apologizing for how horrible this week went, I'm absolutely disgusted that I lost on so many plays and can assure you I'll do my best to make sure this doesn't happen again. I'm going to go ahead and release a play for tonight's game, hopefully this gets us back on track:

• Buffalo Cleveland Under 41

My program liked this game to go under to begin with, and now that there is some question surrounding the weather I feel even more confident recommending it. However, I advise you to use caution after the poor performance my totals program had this past weekend. Also, the weather has gone the opposite way I've expected twice now (It didn't rain on the night of Jets Pats, causing me to withhold my Over play, and the conditions at the Pittsburgh game were much worse than I had been led to believe when I released the Over play), so as usual take my advice with a grain of salt.

Now on to my recap of what happened this week. I'll apologize again for the poor results from this week. Obviously nobody can expect to win every week, but regardless I will be disappointed any time my recommendations hit at below .500, especially by three games. The most painful loss of the day was by far the Giants Ravens Over losing due to a botched extra point, but even if that had come through I still would have been below .500.

When I look back at how the week went, I'm always looking for ways to improve, regardless of whether I had a winning week or not. After how this went, I've decided I'll make a few changes in order to help insure we won't have a week like this again:

1. Plays will be released by email on Saturday, and posted on the site late Saturday night. I'm doing this at this point mostly due to the weather factor. Obviously weather plays a big part in how the flow of the game will go, so the closer to game time it gets, hopefully the more accurate the forecast will be.
2. I'm going to reduce the number of plays I release each week. After releasing a whopping 14 plays Week 10 and going 10-4, I felt like I had to try to come close to getting out that many plays this past week. I will admit that there were a few plays I was on the fence about releasing that I decided to just to have additional plays, which is an unacceptable way to approach things. The SD PIT over, Chi +3.5, and ARI SEA over would never have been released had I just been content with 8 plays going out, but I decided to go against my gut and trust my program in order to release a little more, which turned out to be a huge mistake.
   
3. I will no longer be recommending favorites of more than 8.5 points. If I look at my program for the three weeks it has been running, removing teams that fall under this category dramatically improves its record. Until these teams start to prove they can come through, I'm not going to so much as consider them.
   

Again, I'm sorry to have had such a poor week, I can't promise it won't happen again but I can say with 90% certainty it won't. I went into this week feeling nervous rather than confident, which I should have recognized as a bad sign from the start. I'll continue working towards Week 12 plays as I look to have a significant rebound, and once again remember that nothing is guaranteed. I am providing these picks to you for free, and although we had a down week things should improve in the future. Good luck to all of you tonight, I look forward to getting things back on track as soon as possible.

Sunday Week 11 Picks

Here are the plays I've settled on for Week 11. If I decide on anything for MNF I'll send out an email and post it Monday.

ATS:

• Chicago Bears +3.5
  
• Philadelphia Eagles -9
• Carolina Panthers -14
• New Orleans Saints -5.5
• San Francisco 49ers -6
• Arizona Cardinals -3

Totals:

• Cardinals Seahawks Over 47.5
• Bears Packers Over 43.5
• Dolphins Raiders Under 38.5
• Ravens Giants Over 40.5
• Steelers Chargers Over 42

Good luck this week!

Thursday Night Football

Thursday Night Plays:

• New York Jets +3

My system has strong readings for a Jets cover, and I personally agree with it. Since their first meeting, the Jets offense has improved and the Patriots defense has been decimated by injuries. I think with the Jets hitting their stride coupled with the Patriot's defensive woes should lead to a New York win. I also think a teaser of Jets +9 and over 36 is a pretty attractive bet, but as usual I won't count teaser recommendations towards my record. Good luck with any bets you decide to make!

Week 10 Recap and MNF

MNF Play:

• Arizona San Francisco over 47.5

I also think a good play would be a 6.5 point teaser of Arizona -3 and over 41, although I don't count teasers towards my record.

Although Arizona is amazing at home, the high spread makes me a little wary of taking that pick. My system also doesn't show much value in that pick, so I'm going to stay away from that play and just stick with the totals play. My system loves this game to go over 47.5, and I can't find any reason to disagree. Arizona's high flying offense against the weak 49er defense should put up a good number of points, and although San Francisco has struggled lately they always give Arizona a good fight. Frank Gore always seems to go off against them, so I think the 49ers will put up enough points of their own to make sure this total goes over.

Recapping Week 10, although all of my plays for the Week went a combined 10-4, I am actually disappointed with that result. I am most unhappy with the fact that all four losses came from what I deemed "Official" plays, that is bad capping on my part. In order to avoid this from happening again, I will no longer split my plays between "Leans" and "Official Plays", from this point on if I post it it's a play. So, if you take my Week 9 picks from HERE and combine them with my Week 10 posted plays, that brings my YTD record to 16-5!

Updating my system record, when it is showing a value of over 5 it has a record of 9-3 this year. If I factor out its Dallas pick from last week due to it not factoring in the Romo injury, that brings the record to an impressive 9-2 ATS. On its top totals plays, a value above 8 (suggesting an over) or below -8 (suggesting an under), it has posted at an outstanding 7-1 record! Tonight's Arizona San Francisco pick falls under this category, which gives me more than enough confidence to recommend it.

I'll caution you all once again, just because plays for future weeks might fall into these categories doesn't guarantee they'll keep hitting at this rate. Nothing is guaranteed, I'm well aware this could take a complete 180 at any time. However, until this day comes I'm going to keep riding these picks and hoping for the best.

One final note on my system, I am still working on improving upon it so it will factor in injuries and recent positional changes better when making its plays. When I have made the change I'll watch it for a week to see how it performs, and when I am ready to switch systems or begin factoring my new one into my decisions I will let you all know.

I'll begin working towards a Thursday night play and email it tomorrow or Wednesday, posting it on the site shortly after. Best of luck to all of you tonight if you choose to make a play!

Sunday Picks

Here are the picks I like for this week, I'll post a Week 10 recap including a potential MNF play on Monday. If you are on the email list you will have any MNF plays emailed to you as well.

Official Plays:

• Buffalo +3.5
• Green Bay +2.5
• New Orleans +1
• Pittsburgh -3
  
• Baltimore Houston over 42
• Green Bay Minnesota over 44.5
• Kansas City San Diego over 47

Leans:

• Carolina -9.5
  
• New York Giants +3
• Baltimore PK
• Buffalo New England under 41
• Carolina Oakland under 37.5
• Giants Eagles over 43

For those of you who want write ups, at this point I don't think I'll be doing those, aside from Monday and Thursday nights when there are far less selections. I'm fairly certain that most if not all of you are just following along right now to get an idea of how reliable I really am rather than using my plays to place your wagers. Once I gain a larger following and have established myself as a reliable resource, I may be inclined to change things. Good luck with your bets this weekend!

Thursday Night Football

I'm going to go ahead and post a "Lean", leans will not count towards my official record but will be reflected in my leans record. I find this game difficult to wrap my head around for two reasons. First of all, my system is not showing a strong value in either totals or sides, which makes it difficult to determine which way to go. Also, with Quinn in at QB, the Browns' offense takes on a different look. My system is not taking this change into account, (something I am working to fix) and we really don't know if it will be for better or for worse. So, taking into account my system's reading and my personal opinion of that reading and of this game, here is the lean I'm going to go with:

• Denver +3

My system also leaned towards this game to go under 46, but I just can't bring myself to recommend that pick because I see too much potential for this game to turn into a shootout. I think the most attractive option is to make a teaser of Denver +9 and over 40, but stick with what you're comfortable with. Good luck on your wagers, and hopefully we have a winning start to this site!

A Little Information

Before I start posting plays, I want to give a little information about my system, and the different categories my plays fall under. First of all, my system. Currently my system is set up to break down 32 offensive and defensive stats, plugging them all into a formula to produce a prediction of team points for that game. Although it has had great results up to this point, I feel like I can improve upon it still, and will be working to do that the rest of the season. As the new formulas are computed, I will track the results of those picks compared to my current system, and if there is improvement I will fully switch over.

As far as the plays I release... first of all let me stress THEY ARE NOT GUARANTEED WINNERS! I cannot be held responsible should you decide to wager a large sum of money on one of my picks and it doesn't win. My picks should be used as a tool in helping you decide what you want to bet, don't just blindly follow them.

When it comes to releasing plays, I will give you guys two types of plays, official picks and leans. For tomorrow's game I expect to post one lean, possibly two, and I want to stress that I do not expect leans to hit at as high of a percentage as my official picks. Leans are simply posted for those of you who want extra plays and want to know what my system is reading for the game. To define for you what a "Lean" is, it usually will mean that my system slightly favors one team over another, and I will post it as a lean if I feel fairly confident that it will be correct. This is where my own personal opinions of games come into play, so I will not be releasing every single play from my system.

So anyways, if you'd like my picks tonight send me the sign up email, otherwise I'll post them up here tomorrow afternoon for the Thursday game.

Welcome to Premium Football Picks!

I'd like to welcome everyone to Premium Football Picks! For too long anytime I went looking for football picks I could count on the site cost money, and any free sites I found never seemed to produce consistent winners. Before I go on I'd like to credit sharpfootballanalysis.blogspot.com for providing me inspiration to do this, for quite some time that was the one free picks site that was reliable and hit at a high percentage. However, the maker of that site has decided to charge for his picks now, which I will say is reasonable considering the reputation he has built for himself. So, in his absence I will try to fill the gap and perform up to the standards he has set.

On to me, most of you probably wonder if you can trust my picks. Well, my answer to you is follow along and let my results speak for themselves. I recently kicked off a system which tracks 32 offensive and defensive stats for every NFL team, picking winners and totals based off of those stats. The system has performed remarkably so far, hitting over 70% of its picks! Of course, future results are not guaranteed, but I think its worth following these selections and seeing how they finish the year.

When I release picks to you all, I will not be releasing every single system pick, rather narrowing down my selections where I see value. A perfect example of this would be last week's Giants Cowboys game, my system pointed towards the Cowboys as having value since they were 9 point dogs, but I felt my system was not weighing the Romo injury enough so I stayed away from that selection. I may or may not include a write up with my picks, it depends how busy I am through the week.

I most likely will not release plays for this Thursday night's game, my system is not showing very strong value on either a winner or a totals play, so I'll wait until Friday or Saturday to begin posting plays and tracking my record. However, do check back tomorrow in case I change my mind. Best of luck to those of you who bet, and remember, future results are not guaranteed and it's your job to manage your money, not mine.