System Ready to Kick Off

Let me start by apologizing for a ho-hum last few weeks. 5-7 over a three week span is awfully disappointing, however given that we started so hot we're still sitting on a 20-10 ATS mark. I'm not incredibly surprised over this as I feel that the first three weeks are awfully soft lines. Things have gotten a bit more difficult now, and we've had a few bad breaks along the way hurt us these last few weeks. Special thanks to Russell for turning the ball over on his own 4 yard line and 1 yard line to successfully kill our under play. Considering that this was my first year tracking my record with no system aid, I'm very pleased with the overall result. I wish things could have been a little more consistent, but 67% through 30 plays is not bad at all. For those of you who follow my money management advice, your bankroll is looking pretty good right now. For those of you parlaying, and I hope that isn't many of you, these last few weeks have really hurt.

So, from here on out, we're going to have my statistical system helping us pick the winners. Last year when I was first using it we hit 60% from Week 8 until the Superbowl, with a few really good weeks and really bad weeks mixed in there. The goal this year is to eliminate those really bad weeks. Although my system overall hits at about a 60% clip, I'd like to weed out enough losers to maintain a 67% mark. I've thought about how I want to go about posting my personal plays and system plays, and here's what I've decided upon. My personal plays will continue as usual. I'll post up any plays I like for the week, the majority of which will probably agree with my system plays. I'll also post separately all of my system plays (excluding ones affected by injuries), these will not include write ups and like I said before, some will overlap personal plays. I'll track the record of all system plays separately as well just to keep track of how it's doing, but personal plays are still what I recommend you all pay the most attention to. However, if you have a play you're really liking that agrees with my system, you may want to consider it. Good luck to us going forward guys, let's have a great last few months of the season!

Week 7 Plays

Here's what I'm liking for this week guys:

• Chicago Bears +1

Statistically, these are very similar teams. However, there are a few advantages that the Bears have that I think swing this game. Short and sweet version: the Bears have a much better return game, they convert their yards into points better (Given all of the redzone turnovers so far this season that speaks volumes), and their pass defense is much better. I think these pieces lead to a victory by the Bears on the road.

• New York/Oakland UNDER 34.5

It would be pretty easy to make an argument for Oakland being the worst offense in the league right now. They're 2nd worst in yards per pass attempt, 4th worst in yards per rush attempt, and 4th worst at turning their yards into points. They're the only team in the league that is bottom 8 in all of these categories, and a tough Jets' defense will do them no favors. I don't expect the loss of Kris Jenkins to affect the Jets much in this one. How does Oakland top 10 points in this one?

As far as the Jets are concerned, they're middle of the pack in terms of passing yards per attempt and turning yardage into points, their big strength thus far has been running the ball. Oakland has a middle of the pack defense on all levels, but always seems to play a bit more inspired at home. With a struggling Mark Sanchez, I don't see how the Jets can top 24 points. This game should go under for us, despite the line being set so low.

• New Orleans/Miami OVER 47.5

A lot of people are talking like this could be the week that the Saints flounder. They're coming off of a huge win, they're on the road, Miami has an effective rushing attack that should confuse the Saints, the pieces are in place for an upset. However, I simply cannot overlook the fact that Miami is 4th worst in the league currently at yards per pass attempt allowed. Drew Brees and company will absolutely eat them alive. The question is how well Miami will be able to keep drives alive to keep the ball out of Brees' hands. Miami has the 5th best rushing attack in the league, while New Orleans' rushing defense is middle of the pack. Perhaps Miami can spring an upset and top the Saints, but one way or another I can't see this point total going under. I don't like taking totals plays that the majority of the public is on, but the public should get rewarded in this case with a high scoring game.

• San Francisco/Houston OVER 44

Houston is proving every week that they simply cannot run the ball. They have the 3rd worst rushing attack in the NFL, and are up against the 2nd best rush defense in the NFL so far. To me, that looks like a recipe for them to move the ball through the air this game, keeping the clock from running too much. Schaub should also make a dumb mistake or two during the game, which most likely will result in some easy SF points.

The San Francisco offense has had trouble moving the ball through the air so far, but despite struggling to gain some yardage they're still very efficient at turning their yards into points (although some of this can be contributed to special teams and defensive points). However, a defense that has been that opportunistic in the past should continue to be in the future. San Fran also sees the return of Gore to their lineup this week, a huge plus given that they're playing against one of the worst rushing defenses in the NFL. Not to mention that they'll have yet another weapon on the field for the first time this week with Crabtree. All of the stats pointed to the over despite no Gore the last few weeks and no Crabtree the whole season, and these two factors will only help the over become more likely.

Good luck this week guys! System kicks off next week!

Monday Night Recap and Moving Forward

I needed a day to cool off after that loss we took on Monday night. Three special teams touchdowns are a great way to kill an under, and turn a potential 3-1 week into a 2-2 one. When I take an under I normally like to have about a touchdown worth of error available in the event of a freak play, when there are three though there is simply nothing you can do. Take 2 of those return tds away and we're looking at 43 total points, but unfortunately that's not how the game works and we have to live with it. I'm a bit frustrated as I find myself 3-5 ATS over the last two weeks, but I'm trying to focus on the fact that we easily could be looking at 5-3 instead. These bad breaks will even out in the end.

I've got one more week of capping games on my own, followed by the start of my system plays in Week 8. I'm still deciding how I want to handle these plays and the release of them, I've flip flopped all year on what I'll do and likely will continue to the next week and a half. I think what I'm going to wind up doing is holding back the system plays that I don't agree with, and after a few weeks if I see that I'm leaving too many winners on the shelf I'll make them all available to you. I think that makes more sense right now than tracking a few different records and trying to keep it all sorted out. Although I'm disappointed with the last two weeks, to be sitting at 18-8 ATS with only one week to go before my system plays is certainly the position we want to be in. I'll right the ship this coming week, and then we should be ready for a pretty nice stretch from Week 8 until the Superbowl!

Week 6 MNF Play

Decent Sunday, getting back on the winning side of things with a 2-1 day. I'm a bit disappointed in the day though as I left three other winners on the shelf, you can see here on the card I put together for one of my contests. I'd like to think had I had my normal preparation I would have let these plays through and shared a couple more with you guys. I will rarely be leaving town with no internet access though, so this shouldn't be a problem that pops up often.

I've spent the last day reviewing the play I'm going to release tonight, and I've decided it's worthy of being a late addition. If this play were to lose a winning week would turn into one where we lose a little juice, but as disappointing as that would be I can't ignore this opportunity and I'm going to go for it. Here's what I like for tonight:

• Broncos/Chargers UNDER 44

This is a pretty straight forward pick, as the Broncos' defense has been spectacular so far at shutting down potent offenses. They currently sit at 4th best in the league in yards per pass attempt allowed, and 6th best in yards per rush attempt allowed (especially sweet against this SD rushing attack, which is worst in the league). San Diego will likely be trying to move the ball through the air the majority of this game, which they will learn is a challenge much like Brady and Romo have in the previous two weeks. Even if the Chargers are able to rack up some yards, the Broncos still are by far the best in the league at scoring efficiency defense. The Chargers will have trouble converting any yards they gain into touchdowns.

On Denvers' side of the ball, they've been doing a great job of generating yards, but they're 8th worst in the league at turning those yards into points. I acknowledge that San Diego is also 8th worst in this category on defense, however I think coming off of the bye week slightly more healthy their defense will be looking a bit better than it has so far this season.

I think this game will have it's fair share of mistakes and points left on the field, so the under is the obvious play in my mind. Good luck to anyone who bets on tonight's game!

Week 6 Plays

Hey guys, putting out plays early this week due to heading out of town and not having computer access. I was a bit worried about this originally, but I'm actually feeling pretty good about the plays I've settled on this week. Hopefully we can put an ugly Week 5 behind us and get our momentum moving forward again. Here's what I'm liking this week:

• Green Bay Packers -13

It's kind of rare that I go for the double digit spreads, however this is one that jumps out at me as a good investment opportunity. We've got the Packers coming fresh off of a bye, going against a Lions team that will likely be without Stafford or Calvin Johnson. I know that protection issues have hampered Aaron Rodgers and the Packers' offense all season, but it's looking like Chad Clifton will be returning to their line this week and that will definitely help them out. The Green Bay offense is 6th in the league at turning their yards into points, and I expect that the deck is stacked in their favor to gain plenty of yards and put up plenty of points this coming week.

• Chiefs/Redskins UNDER 37.5

Neither of these teams offenses are good, and both have respectable defenses. The Redskins are 4th worst in the league at turning their yards into points, and although the Chiefs are middle of the pack in this category, they're 2nd worst at gaining passing yards and 6th worst at gaining rushing yards. Their offense simply cannot move the ball. With a slightly above average Redskins' defense, I'm willing to overlook the weaker KC defense and assume the Redskins won't top 20 points, which should be enough to win them the game. In my opinion, this is a very solid looking under.

• Seattle Seahawks -3

It's kind of rough trying to find stats in this matchup since the Seahawks have only played two games with Hasselbeck, but their offense is so much more potent with him in the lineup it's unbelievable. Arizona is still not playing too well, struggling to run the ball and turn their yards into points. Not to mention that they have the worst passing defense in the NFL still after their showdown with the Texans last weekend, something that Hasselbeck should be more than capable of exploiting. One aspect of the Seattle game that hasn't been affected by Hasselbeck's absence is their defense, which is 4th best in the league at preventing opponents from turning yardage into points. I think Seattle wins this week, taking the game by at least a touchdown.

That's it for this week guys, good luck with your plays!

Week 5 Sunday Plays

Time for Week 5 guys, another week of some tight lines and a few that look like traps. I've got a little bit more action this week than last week, coming up with four plays total. I feel pretty good about these plays, I definitely thought they were the best 4 out there, hopefully it works out so that we get a 3-1 week at worst. However, nothing is guaranteed in this business and I again want to remind everyone that just because I went 15-3 on my first 18 plays doesn't mean I'll keep that pace up! As always, manage your money wisely. On to this week's plays:

• SF 49ers -2
• SF/Atlanta UNDER 40.5
  

This is a very interesting game this week, with Atlanta coming off of a bye and Frank Gore still out for the 49ers. The main philosophy driving this pick for me is how much worse the Falcons were last year on the road, and their brutal loss to the Patriots a couple of weeks ago led me to believe that nothing has changed. They've struggled to get Turner running well all year, and the SF defense will certainly be another challenge for him.

Atlanta has been a middle of the pack defense so far, and although San Francisco doesn't exactly light it up on offense they usually are able to put some quality drives together to get points on the board. Their defense is stellar at creating turnovers as well, something that could also set them up for some easy points. I think both offenses will struggle to move the ball in this one, but in the end San Fransisco will come out with a win in a hard fought, low scoring game.

• Houston Texans +5

I'm not ready to give up on the Texans yet. Although they benefited from playing the lowly Raiders last week, bringing their defensive numbers to a little bit more reasonable of a level, I'm still aware that their defense just isn't good. However, Arizona is not playing anywhere near the level they played last year. Turnovers have cost them big so far, and like years in the past their rushing offense is putting up very mediocre numbers.

The red flag here that makes me go with the Texans is how awful the Arizona pass defense has been. Arizona has allowed 7.2 yards per pass attempt against them, something that I fully expect the Texans to take advantage of. Although Arizona will put up their fair share of points, Houston will be able to answer without much problem. Not to mention that the Texans are finally starting to get Steve Slaton going as he's been running much better these last two games with 33 carries for 141 yards. This game could get pretty high scoring, although a 24-21 type of game wouldn't surprise me either. I think that worst case scenario has Arizona winning by a field goal. The Texans should cover in this one no problem.

• Patriots/Broncos UNDER 41

This play jumped out pretty quickly to me this week. Here we have a Patriots offense that still hasn't done anything to show me that they've gelled, going against one of the best defenses in the NFL right now. The Patriots should have lost last week's game, as they didn't look great on offense, but got bailed out by a few dumb penalties by the Ravens that kept their drives alive. Meanwhile, we have a Denver offense here that isn't the most explosive offense in the world, going against a middle of the pack defense. I'd be very surprised if we didn't see Denver trying to run quite a bit on the Patriots and wind clock to keep the ball out of Brady's hands, which of course will aid in keeping the point total in this game down. These teams are also the 8th and 11th worst in the league at turning their yards into points, so we may see them settling for field goals quite a bit (Not to mention that Denver's defense is best in the league in this category). We should have a low scoring battle ahead of us in Denver tomorrow, and I think the under has a pretty high chance of coming through for us.
Good luck this week guys!

Week 4 Sunday Plays

I know some of you will be disappointed that this isn't another week with 6 or 7 plays, but I really think that this is a tight set of lines this week and good value is hard to find. There will be weeks like this, but not nearly as many as weeks where I see a lot more out there that I like. Once my system is up and running, we'll have plenty to choose from. Here's what I'm liking this week:

• 49ers/Rams UNDER 37.5

This play caught my eye from the beginning of the week and never left my radar. The Rams actually showed some life last weekend on offense with Boller at the helm, but it was against a suspect Packers defense that is middle of the pack in both passing and rushing yards per attempt. The 49ers defense this week should return the Rams to the familiar single digit scoring that they saw their first two games of the year. Steven Jackson is the focal point of this Rams' offense, and with the 49ers allowing only 3 ypc this season and containing AP fairly well last week, it isn't looking like Jackson will find much room to run come Sunday. If forced into turning to the pass, the Rams already find themselves in trouble as they are the third worst team in the league in yards per pass attempt. The 49ers are 9th in the league against the pass, so again, Boller shouldn't have a very easy time keeping the chains moving.

I'm optimistic the 49ers won't push this total over given the loss of Gore from their offense. Although Coffee certainly is a capable backup, he doesn't bring the same explosiveness to the offense as Gore does. It's tough to say what Gore would have done had he played all of last week against the Vikings, but I feel fairly confident he could have managed better than the 2 ypc Coffee ran for. St. Louis has a pretty bad defense, but the conservative nature of the 49ers probably ensures that we won't see a lot of quick scores. I see the Rams scoring anywhere from 3-14 points, while I see the 49ers range being in the area of 14-21. This total should stay under, and hopefully does so easily so we won't be sweating it out in the final quarter.

• Denver Broncos +3

I've been hearing a lot of love for the Cowboys this week, but the Broncos were another team that immediately found themselves on my radar this week. Although the Broncos have benefited from playing the Browns and Raiders, and won on a lucky tip play at Cinci, they've still done their job and looked good doing it. Dallas comes into this game also having played a soft Panthers team and soft Bucs team, also doing their job against those two weak opponents. They also played the Giants tough at home, but came out losers in that one due to a rough outing by Romo.

Here is what's so interesting about this Dallas team. Dallas finds themselves in a unique situation where they're top 8 in the league in both yards per pass attempt and yards per rush attempt, and bottom 8 in both of those categories on defense. Considering the poor TB and Carolina offenses, I find this very alarming as they try to shut down the Denver attack. You can bet Denver will be able to put together a lot of long drives marching the ball down the field, keeping the ball out of Romo's hands. Meanwhile, even when the Cowboys do get the ball, their high flying offense will be tested by the #1 pass defense in the league and the #7 rush defense.

The bottom line is that Denver has been doing their job on offense and should continue to do so against this terrible Cowboys' defense. The Cowboys however, will find themselves facing a test and may struggle more to get points on the board. I think Denver wins this game fairly easily, taking it by a touchdown.

These are easily my favorite two plays this week, I'm still deciding if there is one more play I want to make or not. If I do add an additional play I'll make sure everyone is informed about it one way or another. If I don't add a play, good luck to all of you this week and I hope you have a successful Week 4!