Week 3 Recap

Another winning week in the books as a 5-2 Sunday brings our record this year up to 13-3 ATS! We've certainly had a great start, and with every winning week we find ourselves one week closer to having the statistical system to back our numbers as well. Although right now it doesn't look like we need it, it'll certainly help us keep the winners consistently coming. Although I'm excited to have turned out another winning week, the public absolutely killed the books this week, of the 15 games played so far 12 of them were won by teams the majority of the public backed. In my past experience, the week after one's like this is when people get absolutely hammered. We saw a little bit of that in Week 2, and I wouldn't be surprised to see it again next week, so tread forward with caution. Obviously those are the weeks we need to weather the storm, I haven't taken a look at the lines yet but I'm leaning towards a much more conservative approach next week. However, if I see value I simply can't ignore, I won't rule out a weekend with a good number of plays again.

I won't be making a play on tonight's game, I'll pack in our third straight winning week and get the process started towards giving us a fourth straight! Good luck to any of you who decide to wager tonight!

Week 3 is finally here, bringing with it a lot of very interesting match-ups. After doing my usual routine throughout the week to decide which plays I like and narrow them down, I wound up with a few more plays then I expected. Although a couple of these have the looks of traps and it makes a a little nervous, I'm going to go ahead and ride them and hope for the best. When everything is said and done, I just can't make a case for why they shouldn't be a play, and if I think I see value there I'm going to take it. I'd be stunned if I saw another undefeated week, so please don't take these plays and throw them into parlays and hope for the best. This is a much tighter set of lines then in Week 1. As usual, I recommend just flat betting these plays and looking ahead to where you want to be at the end of the season, rather than where you want to be after this week. So, here are the plays I'm looking at for this week:

• New York Giants -6.5

The only way I see the Giants losing this game or failing to cover is if they suffer a letdown after their dramatic win over the Cowboys last week. However, this hasn't been characteristic of the Giants' teams of the past couple years. The last two seasons, when the Giants have been coming off of a win against a division opponent, and faced a non-division opponent the next week, they've still cruised, going 3-0 and winning by just under 20 ppg (Against the Rams and Ravens last year, and the Jets in 2007). Against a terrible Tampa team, I'll trust that this team has similar character to the teams of years past and doesn't suffer the letdown I'm slightly worried about. I expect the Giants to roll over the Bucs, cruising to a win by at least two touchdowns.

• Pittsburgh/Cincinnati UNDER 37

For the first time in a while, the Bengals look like they have a good defense. A big part of their success shutting down the Green Bay attack was the constant pressure they had on Rogers, and the Steelers' offensive line isn't much better. The Steelers have already surrendered 6 sacks in two games, while Cincinnati has pummeled their opponents for 9 sacks in two games. With the running game struggling, the Steelers will likely be a little more throw heavy, giving the Bengals more chances to get to Big Ben. With their QB under constant pressure, the Steelers shouldn't be able to put many good drives together, keeping their point total down.

As far as the Bengals' offense goes, I don't expect much better points wise. Their yards per pass and rush attempt are nothing spectacular, and Pittsburgh has absolutely slammed the door on the run so far this year. I expect the Bengals will still try, but they'll eventually have to turn to an inconsistent Palmer to try to get them to score. This should stay a low scoring affair, with both teams struggling to get in the end zone and coming away with a lot of field goals. I expect a 20-16 type of game at the highest.

• Chicago Bears -2

It took me a while to warm up to this game, but I simply cannot ignore all of the injuries plaguing the Seahawks right now. Hasselbeck is unlikely to play, and Wallace should struggle against a Bears defense that has been effective against the pass so far (6th in the league in yards per pass attempt). The Seahawks also will likely struggle running the ball, setting them up in must throw situations and playing into the Bears' hands. On offense, I expect the Bears to work hard to get the RB Matt Forte going, who has been shut down thus far. Against a Seattle defense that has injury problems and got shredded last week by the 49ers, I wouldn't be surprised to see success out of Forte finally. Once the run game is established, the Bears can let Cutler loose and put it away. Bears should take this one by a touchdown.

• Denver Broncos -1
• Denver/Oakland UNDER 36.5
  

Denver finds themselves in a position to start 3-0, something few could have predicted. Although the Raiders' defense has looked good so far this year, their offense has been absolutely abysmal. Russel has played very inconsistent, seeming to wake up for only the fourth quarter each week. Meanwhile, despite keeping the Chiefs to very few points last week, Oakland got dominated in total yardage. Their defense managed to do the job and get the Chiefs off the field, but I think that the Broncos are a team much more equipped to take advantage of scoring opportunities that come their way. Also, despite Oakland's struggle to rack up yards thus far, they've done a great job turning the yards into points. This however meets with the strength of the Denver defense, who is best in the league right now at keeping yardage from being converted into points. The Raiders' offense isn't much better than the Browns' right now, and Denver should have no problem keeping Oakland's point total in single digits. I see Denver scoring anywhere from 14-24 points, while Oakland struggles to find the right side of 10.

• Houston Texans -3.5
• Houston/Jacksonville OVER 47
  

I've flip flopped on this game all week, unable to decide if I wanted to make it a play or not. Houston seems to have the clear advantage here, and the line seems like it should be more in the neighborhood of Houston -7. However, we find ourselves facing a line of just 3.5 points, and we must wonder if we're walking into a trap with this one. I don't necessarily believe that Vegas sets lines with the purpose of trapping people, I think we just create the traps ourselves. Right now everyone is impressed with Houston's gutty come from behind win, with thoughts of Schaub's 4 touchdowns still fresh in their minds. Meanwhile, the Jaguars had an underwhelming effort against Arizona, and got thrown all over for the second game in a row. If I had to guess why this line was so low, I'd assume that Vegas expects it to be a high scoring affair with MJD having a monster day. Houston's pass and run defense are absolutely abysmal, giving up 7.4 yards per pass attempt, and 6.32 yards per rush attempt. Not all of those rushing numbers are because of Chris Johnson either, the Jets tore them up on the ground in Week 1 as well.

This game reminds me of the Week 1 Saints vs. Lions game, I have a very similar feeling on it. I'm confident that the points will be there on the Texans' end, if they fell short of 27 I'd be very surprised, they may even go over that. On the Jacksonville end, we know that they're going against a Texans' defense that has been very bad lately, and the opportunity for them to put up points sure appears to be there. If this game goes over, it'll be because Jacksonville did scored on their end and potentially covered. If it goes under, it's probably because the Texans' defense bore down and they blew out the Jags. I think this is another great situation where worst case scenario has us eating a little juice and going 1-1, with a very good possibility of the total going over and the Texans covering anyways, giving us a 2-0 record for this game.

I may come back with a Monday Night Football play, I'm strongly considering it right now. If I do make a play I'll send out an email Monday afternoon. Good luck this week guys, hopefully we find ourselves with a profit for a third week in a row!

Week 2 Recap and Thoughts Going Forward

Hey guys, before I get into my recap of the first couple weeks, I just want to let you all know that I won't be making a play on the Colts/Dolphins game. I was considering Miami +3, but it simply isn't a play where it looks like there is any value in making the bet. We'll pick our spots and move ahead to Week 3. Every now and then I'll send out a little recap of what's been happening lately, as well as share some thoughts on the games. I may make it a weekly thing, it'll probably just depend on how much I feel like I have to say and how busy I am.

Sunday turned out to be an okay day, going 2-1 and profiting once again. It's no 6-0, but I'm happy to end up again and I'll go heavier again next time I see lots of value out there. The New Orleans game was close at the half, with the Eagles offense looking good throughout the second quarter. However, two turnovers deep in their own territory early in the second half quickly put the game out of reach. My fault for trusting Kolb, although I'm still not convinced the Saints will consistently get the job done on the road. There may be another opportunity in the future to try and exploit them. The Falcons and Ravens sure made things exciting with their lack of defense, but they both did the job for us in the end and gave us a couple nice wins.

So far, I've got to say I'm pretty happy with how things are going. I've posted an 8-1 record so far without the help of my system, and I've been doing a great job of weeding out potential plays that would wind up losing. When the lines come out every Tuesday I run through them and pick out the ones that catch my eye, and then narrow them down as the week goes on. The plays I've weeded out are a nasty 6-8, so I'm going to keep on taking this route and continue to find you guys the best possible value.

Although it is frustrating to only make 3 plays in a week, I'm going to go ahead and keep doing it as long as I don't see any value. I know a lot of you weren't yet on board for the 6-0 week, so you aren't quite as ahead as some of us. A 2-1 week doesn't feel like much, but do that every week of the season and you've got a 42-21 record. Sometimes I tend to focus too much on the short term, but if I just keep that goal of being well ahead in the end in mind, it helps calm some of my restlessness. We're in a sprint, not a marathon, so stay away from those teasers and parlays guys. Those are just going to set you back in the long run, it's very difficult to consistently come out ahead using those.

Of course, every week won't only have 3 picks. Until I kick off my system in Week 8, I anticipate a range of 3-6 picks a week, there may be a week or two along the way where we see a little more or less than that. It really depends on how good the lines are looking. Once my system kicks off, I'll have a separate section where I track of all system plays that I do not make official. This is for you guys who may want to pick through them and see what you like that my system backs, but remember that I'm leaving them out for a reason. Sometimes they'll be right, sometimes they'll be wrong, but I hope I can do a good job of narrowing them down.

That's about all I've got guys, we'll keep chugging along and try to continue building up some momentum for later in the season. Looking forward to a great Week 3, I'll have my plays out for you all around the usual time! For those of you betting College Football, good luck until next Sunday!

Week 2 Sunday Plays

Week 1 sure treated us well, with my posted plays going a stunning 6-0 ATS. It's safe to say I had the right read on all of those games, with the sole exception maybe being the lucky cover by the Packers. I thought they could win a little more comfortably than that, but in the end a win is a win. The lucky breaks will even out along the way, I'm sure my followers from last year can remember a couple brutal beats we took (Losing an over because of a botched extra point is still the most painful).

As much as I'd like to dwell on my Week 1 performance though, it's time to move on to Week 2 and get the job done again. This week is a much tougher set of lines, yet I've managed to come up with a few plays that I feel pretty good about. I actually think Vegas doesn't mind the weak lines in Week 1, because they know that the public will go heavier the next week when things get crazier. Less than 10% of sports bettors can manage to turn a profit in the long run, and there's a reason for that. The public did great in Week 1, and a lot of people will find that they aren't that lucky this week. So, as usual, I recommend good money management with your bets, my 6-0 Week 1 does not indicate that I'll have a winning Week 2 as well. Remember that right now these games are just my humble opinion and I do not yet have my system running to help me out, so there is no guarantee I can perform well again this week. Every week I can only guarantee that I'll do everything in my power to pick some winners, with that being said here's what I've got this week:

• Philadelphia Eagles PK
  

The first play I'm liking this week is Eagles PK. The general public perception right now is that no Mcnabb = No win for the Eagles, plus that Drew Brees has entered beast mode and will throw big points on the board as usual. With no Mcnabb, how could the Eagles possibly keep up? Well, there are a few skeletons in the Saints' closet that I'm not willing to ignore, making Philly the clear pick for me. For one, the Saints were just a 2-6 road team last year. Their two wins? Against the 2-14 Chiefs and the 0-16 Lions. A big reason for this was a fall in Brees' numbers when he played on the road. Although his yardage was fairly similar to when he played at home, he threw 11 tds to 10 ints (8 tds to 9 ints ignoring the KC and DET games). Compared to his 23 tds to 5 ints at home, not so great.

One game I remember getting burned on last year was betting on the Saints in Week 2. They had just stomped a solid Tampa Bay defense at home, and went on the road to play the Redskins who had struggled mightily on offense in Week 1. The Saints were only 3 point favorites, and everyone and their mother seemed to love them to cover and win handily. After 4 quarters of football, the Saints found themselves losers 29-25. After an average to below average defensive performance against Detroit (I'm not holding the returned fumble for a td against them), I've seen nothing to indicate that this defensive unit is greatly improved. Kolb has been in this league for a while and should be ready to play, not to mention the outside chance Mcnabb plays still.

Maybe the Saints have really turned over a new leaf this year, but until I see something to prove it I have to go against them in this spot. The Eagles are one of the favorites in the NFC with or without Mcnabb, and you can bet that their defense will do it's job and apply the pressure to Brees, forcing some mistakes. It'll probably be a close one, but in the end I see the Eagles coming out on top.

• Baltimore +3

I know it's early in the season and I haven't seen a ton out of the Ravens yet, but I'm pretty certain that this team is the real deal. They were quite impressive in the preseason, and although he only played the Chiefs, Flacco seems to have taken a step forward from where he was last year. The Ravens were a quality team on the road last year, making a nice playoff run beating the Dolphins and Titans on the road, so you know they do not get phased by opposing crowds. I'm also not a believer in this Chargers team, it seems like they get hyped up every year only to finish with a mediocre season. I found myself constantly amazed Monday night at how dominant Oakland seemed over them, they really stole a win in that one.

Although any team can have a bad week at any time, I don't have any reason to believe that last week was just a bad week for San Diego. They are a team with a history of underachieving, and they find themselves without several key starters this coming Sunday. I expect an improvement in the Raven's defense as they come out looking to prove that they're a force to be reckoned with in the AFC, and I really can't see the Chargers having that special of a game. Although the public's money is on the Ravens, I don't mind that and I think this is a great spot to bet them. All in all, I don't see how the Chargers offense will be able to keep the chains moving, or how their defense will be able to slow down the Ravens' attack. So, Ravens +3 should come through, with a good chance that they take this one outright.

• Atlanta Falcons -6
  

This line almost seems suspicious, yet I cannot ignore the value. We all remember the 12-4 Panthers of last year, a powerful team among the NFC favorites that wound up flopping. Maybe that's why this line is so low, because people expect that these are the Panthers that show up on Sunday. Well, even if the Panthers come ready to play at the level they did last year, I expect it still won't be enough for them to cover this spread.

The 2008 Panthers struggled to win on the road, posting a 4-4 mark. Of those 4 wins, not a single team was over .500! When they were on the road they scored a td less per game, while allowing an additional 5 ppg to be scored on them. But this only tells part of the story. If you remove those cupcake teams they played against, their story becomes much more dismal. You're now looking at an 0-4 mark on the road, with an average loss of about 14 ppg. One of these losses came to this very Falcons team, when the Falcons beat up on them 45-28.

So, even if the Panthers can get their 2008 swagger back, it seems like they still don't have a ton to look forward to. I also reviewed Atlanta's stellar home numbers in last week's write up, further enforcing the strength of this pick. Last week Atlanta proved their run last year was no fluke, taking it to a quality Miami defense and forcing their offense into several uncharacteristic turnovers. This is especially impressive given how well Miami took care of the ball all of last year. With a turnover prone Delhomme coming to Atlanta, I'd expect the Falcons to capitalize on a few more opportunities for a takeaway. Against a Panthers' defense that isn't as good as the defense the Falcons faced last week, I expect Atlanta to score without much difficulty as well. When all is said and done, look for a comfortable Falcons win.

Best of luck to everyone this week, hopefully we can make it another winning week!

Week 1 MNF

After some consideration I've decided I will not be making any plays on tonight's games. I have absolutely no read on the Oakland vs. San Diego game, so obviously that's one I'm staying away from. The other game, Patriots vs. Bills, is a much tougher one for me to avoid. Over 47 is a very tempting play for me, but I just don't feel like I know enough about these teams yet to go ahead and make it a play. In the end, I just have too many unanswered questions so I'm going to pack in the 6-0 week and get to it next weekend!

Week 1 Sunday Plays

Opening weekend is finally here, and I believe that I'm ready to make it a profitable one. Before I post my plays I'd like to issue a couple reminders one more time. I do not have a proven track record picking games without the use of my system. I have done it before, but I never closely tracked my record, so I can't give you guys any idea what to expect. Given that I am unproven and that it is early in the season (so there are more unknowns), I urge you to go lighter than you normally would if you feel the need to tail me. The last thing I want is for someone to take a huge hit the first week because they don't know all of the facts. Now that we've got that out of the way though, let's get on to the picks!

• San Francisco 49ers +6

I've seen absolutely nothing out of the Arizona first string offense or defense this preseason to give me a good feeling about them heading into the season, and SF always seems to play Arizona tough. Last season when SF played in Arizona they nearly stole one outright, having a chance at a touchdown in the final seconds to win it. They squandered the opportunity with poor clock management, but all the pieces are still there for them to do it again. Had this game been played last season, when Arizona was clicking, my system still would have picked SF +6. I think that Arizona is faltering right now, and SF is on the rise compared to last year, making this pick that much sweeter. I wouldn't be surprised to see SF win this game, but I'll take them at +6 and expect at least the cover.

• Atlanta Falcons -4

Atlanta is just a different team when they play at home. They had their fair share of struggles on the road last year, but they scored almost 10 ppg more at home, with an average margin of victory of 10 pts. Atlanta has looked spectacular all preseason, and although Miami was a pretty good road team, I think they're much more likely to take a step back this year. I'll count on Atlanta to win this game by a TD or more and cover.

• Arizona/SF UNDER 46

This pick goes along with some of my comments in the SF pick. Arizona's offense is not looking good, and the possibility that Boldin sits out makes this play look that much sweeter. SF is a run first team, and should try to attack with Gore and wind some clock to keep Warner off the field. Also, you can bet they'll look to take Warner's weapons away and force Arizona to come out and beat the with the run. In order for this total to go over, you figure we'd have to see 6 tds and a couple field goals between the two teams. I'd be shocked if these teams found the end zone 6 combined times, so I think the under is the obvious play.

• Green Bay Packers -4

The Packers have looked very impressive this preseason, with every aspect of their game looking great. Although the Bears finally have a capable QB at the helm, he still doesn't have anybody to throw the ball to. The Bears' defense is also quite overrated in my opinion, and simply will not be able to handle Green Bay's passing attack. This game could get pretty high scoring, and the Bears won't be able to keep up.

• New Orleans Saints -13.5

Although I'm a bit hesitant to take such a large favorite, all the signs point to a Saints blowout win. Last season the Saints absolutely pounded Detroit when they played them, and should have no problem solving the defense again. The only question that I have is whether or not Detroit can keep up with the Saints' scoring. With Stafford getting the start, he should be able to give the Lions some life on offense. However, one could argue that he didn't have a single great preseason game, and I like the chances of the Saints picking off a pass or two. With those kinds of mistakes and the New Orleans' improved defense, I see a blowout victory.

• Saints/Lions OVER 48

This pick serves a couple of purposes. First of all, I think there is a good chance that we see a 38-20 type of game and the total goes over easily. I have no doubt in my mind that the Saints will put up points on their end, the question is whether or not the Lions will be able to score as well. In my mind, if the total were to go under it would be because of the Lions' short comings, and the Saints -13.5 bet should have been a winner. If the total were to go over, the Lions put up their share of points then, and they may have covered the spread. I can't see the combination of this over and the Saints -13.5 bet doing any worse than going 1-1, I'll gladly eat the juice if that happens. I think the smart play here is to take the over as well, and you're looking at a good chance of both plays winning, with a worst case scenario of 1 losing.

That's it for my plays this week, I wish you all a successful Week 1!

Some Week 1 Info

I just wanted to let you all know that I will not be making a play on Thursday Night's opening game. I have a slight lean towards Pittsburgh -6, but I simply do not see enough value in the play to consider it a good investment. I'll continue working towards some solid plays for Sunday for you all, I expect to have decided on my plays by Friday or Saturday. Best of luck to those of you who make a play Thursday!

Some Betting Advice for the Coming Season

One key aspect of gambling is knowing how to maximize your profits. I thought it would be worth a write up to explain to you all the approach I will be taking to maximize mine. I will be entering my third year of NFL wagering this following year, and I have had mixed results my first two. For my first two years of wagering, I found myself addicted to the parlay. Straight wagers simply didn't increase my bankroll fast enough for my liking. The first year I used parlays I actually was quite successful, increasing my initial bankroll by 12x by the end of the year. I took this parlay mindset into last season's wagering, and to say it didn't go as well would be an understatement. You all followed along with me last year, I hit 61% of my plays which is pretty damn good for the NFL. However, my parlays always seemed to lose a key play, and I would find myself ending 4-2 weeks barely up or even down a bit. Plus, any week that was especially bad would cripple my bankroll. Although it is an exciting type of wagering and there are wild swings week to week, it simply is not a consistent way to win. That is the major risk you run with parlays, any bad week could kill you. Even with a system backing my plays, there will be occasional weeks where we aren't satisfied with the results.

I've decided that although there is high reward for parlays, they simply will not be worth my time this year. I am not entering this NFL season thinking about it as gambling, I will be thinking about it as investing. I am going to put a larger percentage of my bankroll on my wagers than normal, knowing that the results will be there at the end of the season. If you are looking to double your bankroll every week or make monumental gains, I would strongly advise against it. Rather, invest a chunk of money that you are comfortable risking, bet a set % of your initial bankroll, and perhaps reassess how much you'd like to be wagering every 4 weeks. Anybody can have a bad week or two, it is the nature of gambling. However, given the strength of my system and my confidence in my own plays, I strongly doubt that we will ever look at a 4 week span that we didn't profit in.

I need to get out of my "Make money now" mindset, and focus on having a nice payday at the end of the season in February. I was 57-36 last season, had I just straight wagered $110 on all of those plays at -110 odds I would have found myself up $1740. Instead, I found myself down for the year because I wanted to immediate reward of a nice parlay hit. If parlays are your thing and you can be successful with them, by all means continue and I wish you the best. However, if you've struggled with parlays in the past and failed to turn a profit, I suggest you take the same approach as me, realizing the profit will be there at the end of the year.

Although I am very confident about how this upcoming season will go, you all must remember that I am not guaranteeing anything. That has always been my message, past performance does not guarantee future results. There is no guarantee that because I hit 61% last year I will do it again this coming season. I could do better, I could do worse. I just want everyone to be aware I can not promise a profit, I can only promise to put forth my best effort to produce one. I mentioned this before, but again, I've never carefully tracked my personal plays record before. Given that fact, you may want to be cautious these first 7 weeks until I have my system running too. That is completely up to you and how competent you think I am. But at the end of the day, regardless of whether you have had a profitable week or not, realize that it was you who made the plays. Rather than just blindly tailing every play I recommend, you may want to just bet the ones you agree with. Do not leave your comfort zone with your wagering, and please don't risk more than you can afford to lose. I wish you all the best this coming season! Plays for Week 1 will be coming soon!