Super Bowl XLIII

Unfortunately after two weeks of analysis I do not have any official plays for the game this weekend. Despite it being the Super Bowl, I refuse to force a play when I am not confident in it hitting. For anyone interested, the program plays suggested Arizona +6.5 and the over (I had said the under last week but I had failed to update a part of it, which luckily I caught), yet my gut goes with Pittsburgh -6.5 and the under.

When I've tried to break down this game, I've just come across too many unanswered questions. For one, Hines Ward's health will play a big part in how effective the Steelers' offense can be. We know what the players and coaches are saying, but that doesn't mean that's how things really are. Turnovers are the other problem we face trying to figure this game out. Warner has been spectacular so far in the playoffs, but he has not faced a defense nearly as good as Pittsburgh's. This also will basically be a road game for Kurt, and he tends not to take care of the ball as well when he isn't at home. Since turnovers are one of the biggest factors in swinging games one way or the other, I don't like to pick a game when I'm not sure what to expect.

So, I'm going to wrap up the year with my 57-36-2 ATS record, and after the Super Bowl begin working towards finding any potential program improvements and gearing up for next year. I hope you all enjoy the game tomorrow, and good luck with any wagers you decide to place!

2008/2009 Program and Pick Results

Since we still have a week to go until the Super Bowl, I thought this would be a good week to share some more detailed, in depth results with you. Obviously we still have one more game to go, so I'll be sure to update this after the Super Bowl to have all records reflected accurately at the end of the season.

To begin with, lets recap what we've learned this year. First and foremost, I believe that it can be said with fairly high certainty that the program I have is a successful, meaningful one. Since I started using it to aid in my picks, I have hit at a high percentage and been able to profit quite a bit from it, as I hope you have been able to as well. However, despite the success, I feel like a shortcoming I had was the consistency of the picks. As you have seen, although I finished with a respectable record, I had my ups and downs from week to week. I believe I had three or four weeks where my posted plays finished below .500, which of course nobody wants to see. When I took a minute to wonder why this was, I realized the bad habit I had slipped into.

As you all know, my program is based on statistics that go pretty in depth. My biggest mistake this year was rather than using the statistics to back up my plays, I was using the statistics to make my plays. Once I saw that my program spat out a certain team to win, I immediately became biased towards that being a play, which probably affected my reasoning. I rarely found myself making a play that went against my program, which is something I should have found myself doing from time to time. I believe in the future I can weed out a greater number of the incorrect program plays simply by reversing this process. As long cap the games myself and THEN look to the program, I can most likely greatly improve my success.

Now let's examine our records for the year. To begin with, here are the records of my personal plays that I have posted since I launched the program (excluding ties):

• ATS Plays: 29-20 (59.2%)
• Totals Plays: 22-15 (59.5%)
• Overall: 51-35 (59.3%)
  

If you were to include plays I posted in a contest thread the week before I started this site (Here), my records become:

• ATS Plays: 33-21 (61.1 %)
• Totals Plays: 24-15 (61.5%)
• Overall: 57-36 (61.3%)

I challenge all of you to go out and find a handicapper who posted over 90 plays and hit over 61%, you likely won't find many. In fact, I doubt you'll find any who offer their picks for free.

Moving on to my program records itself, I analyzed these in depth recently because I wanted to get a better idea of just how reliable they were. I looked at the results of the program based off of how many points it suggested the team would beat the spread by (for example if the program says Arizona beats the spread by 3.54 points I give it a strength of 3). Here are the results of my program, broken down by the strength of the play (Excluding ties again). These are only plays on sides, I have yet to analyze the totals plays:

All Plays: 83-61 ATS (57.6%)
1 or more: 71-52 ATS (57.7%)
2 or more: 61-44 ATS (58.1%)
3 or more: 51-36 ATS (58.6%)
4 or more: 43-22 ATS (66.2%)
5 or more: 30-15 ATS (66.7%)
6 or more: 22-9 ATS (71.0%)
7 or more: 12-3 ATS (80.0%)
8 or more: 9-2 ATS (81.8%)

As you can see, as the play got stronger, the winning percentage went up as well. Of those two losses when the value was over 8, one was when an uninterested Arizona team played in the snow against the Patriots, the other was the slumping Jets in the snow against the Seahawks. If I'm correct, both of these were plays I recommended, and great examples of plays I would have avoided had I capped the game myself before I looked at the program.

So what does this mean going forward? Well, for one, it is highly encouraging to see something that has the record consistently increase as the value goes up. It makes me believe that these are not just "Lucky guesses", but rather significant mismatches that the program picks up on. The bigger the room for error, the higher the success rate. Of course, as I have stated before, these past results do not guarantee any results for next year. However, to have a sample size of 144 games hitting at 57% is very encouraging, and I look forward to seeing if the results continue to be consistent in the future.

So, I hope you've all found this information interesting as we wait another week for the Super Bowl to get here. If any of you have feedback on things I could improve on, I'd love to hear it, I'm always looking for ways to improve. As for next week, early on I'm really liking a totals play, yet I am still undecided on whether or not to play a side. After the Super Bowl I will make one more post about records including totals, and over the off season possibly occasionally update with any information I find important. At the moment, I am working on a new website that is a bit more sophisticated than this blog, I'll be sure to keep you all up to date. Going into next season I will continue to offer all of my plays for free, as usual guaranteeing nothing. My plays should simply be used as a tool towards you determining what you want to bet on that week. One final note, for those of you with friends interested in football betting, I'd greatly appreciate it if you'd point them in my direction. The more followers I have, the more rewarding my work is! I put in a great deal of time week to week figuring out my plays and updating my program, so to have larger numbers of people following me makes motivation much easier! Thanks to all of you who have stuck with me through the ups and downs this year, and I hope to have ten times as many of you following along with me next year!

Championship Weekend Picks

I'm 5-1 so far in the playoffs, and I'm looking to keep the nice run alive. Unfortunately I don't see a ton of great plays this weekend, but I do have one that I think has a great chance of hitting. Aside from that I have a couple of strong leans, but they aren't quite strong enough for me to make plays. Here is what I see this weekend:

• Eagles at Cardinals

A lot of people continue to doubt the Cardinals, but I'm not one of them. To be totally honest, despite winning their first two games the Eagles have not impressed me at all, they've basically been handed both games. Westbrook being banged up won't help their cause, so the question becomes if their defense can make some plays and contain Warner and the explosive Arizona passing attack. Although Warner seems long overdue for a game with tons of turnovers, I don't think this will be it, he takes care of the ball better at home than on the road (8 turnovers to 13). I think Arizona +3.5 is the way to go here, so I'm making that my lone official play of the week. As far as the total goes, I'm strongly leaning towards the under but can't quite bring myself to make it a play.

• Ravens at Steelers

Although 6 points seems like a lot to be giving the Ravens, I don't feel nearly confident enough that they'll be able to cover this. Their defense is banged up and Pittsburgh is still relatively fresh and will force some turnovers. I think Pitt takes care of the ball better, and has an easier time of moving the ball than the Ravens will. I lean Pittsburgh -6 here, with a lean towards under 34 as well.

Good luck this weekend!

Divisional Round Playoff Picks

Last week was a good one, going 3-0 on my posted plays, with my program actually getting all of its ATS picks correct. This week, the slate of games isn't looking nearly as clear cut as I've found myself struggling all week to find any games that have a lot of appeal. Since the season is almost over, and we're down to just a few games a week, I'm going to post up brief write ups on my takes on all of the games, while only making a few picks. So, to be clear, you will be seeing my opinions on all of the games this weekend, but just because I have an opinion does not make it a recommended play. If I recommend something as a play, I will clearly say so, and conclude with a brief list of any picks I made. So, on to the games!

• Saturday, 4:30 ET: Ravens at Titans

My program favors Baltimore in this game, but only because of the three points really. If I were looking at this game SU, it gives Baltimore just a .61 point edge. When I take a step back and examine this game though, I'm feeling like I need to go against my program. Baltimore has shown nothing against quality teams this season (I refuse to recognize last week's stomping of the Dolphins as significant), with losses to the Giants, Steelers (Twice), Colts, and Titans. Their best win of the season could very well be over the Eagles, which was a close game at half before McNabb was benched. Now, they're facing the Titans again in a hostile environment with a rookie QB facing one of the best defenses in the NFL. I know Baltimore's defense has been great as well, so I expect a low scoring game. However, I think Tennessee will take better care of the ball and come out with a win. I'm liking Tennessee -3 as a lean, and Under 34 as a play in this one.

• Saturday, 8:15 ET: Cardinals at Panthers

I've been scratching my head over this game all week. When I ran the program, it actually liked Arizona to win outright by about 3 points. So, when I first saw the line of Arizona +9.5, I had to take a moment to pause and wonder what exactly was going on. Obviously Arizona has been terrible going to the East Coast all year, with blowout losses to the Jets and Patriots and additional losses to the Redskins and Panthers. In fact, the best game they played out east was possibly at Carolina. When my program has a value above 7, it has been incredibly reliable this year. Since the value is about 12 for this game, I have to go ahead and trust it despite feeling uneasy about it all week. I think Arizona will do a decent job of slowing down the Panther offense and find ways to put points on the board, with or without Boldin (In Breaston I trust). I highly doubt Arizona can steal this game, but I do think they'll keep it within a touchdown. Therefore, I'm making Arizona +9.5 a play, with a slight lean towards the over 48.5.

• Sunday, 1:00 ET: Eagles at Giants

Way too many people like Philly in this one. I was hoping this line would fall to -3, but it doesn't look like fate will be so good to us. The Eagles had way too tough of a time against the Vikings in round one in my opinion, and with the return of a healthy Brandon Jacobs the Giants' offense takes on a much better look. I think the Giants will focus in on stopping Westbrook in this one, which will result in Reid turning the Eagles' offense into the McNabb show and making Philly one dimensional. I'm going to trust the Giants since they've been here before, and I think their coaching advantage is worth a few points on its own. I'll go with Giants -4 as a play, a lean towards the over 39.5, but if you can get this at -3 somehow I'd definitely try to do that to be safe.

• Sunday, 4:45 ET: Chargers at Steelers

I'm having the toughest time figuring this game out. I can't for the life of me figure out whether or not the Chargers have fixed their defense, or whether this game will even be high or low scoring. I have very slight leans for this game, Under 38 and Steelers -6. However, I wouldn't be at all surprised to see the Chargers come in and steal this game from the Steelers outright. I just don't know which Chargers team will show up, and I don't want to guess.

So, in review, here are the plays for this week:

ATS

• Cardinals +9.5
• Giants -4

Totals

• Ravens Titans Under 34

Good luck this week everybody!

Wild Card Weekend Picks

Before I go on to posting picks, I'm acknowledging that I really need to step it up. Although my picks are still around 57% for the season, I've been wildly inconsistent and I find that unacceptable. Obviously since I just kicked the program off this season I've needed some time to observe it and work out any kinks, and I also know that no statistical based model can accurately predict games consistently. Its my job to use it as a tool in making my picks, meaning that I've fallen short of that goal. Basically I'm not surprised the program is inconsistent, but I'm unhappy with myself for not doing a better job of figuring out which of the picks are the losers I should leave out. I look forward to the off season where I can focus 100% on improving, finding clues to which program plays may not hit, and trying to fix any problems that may exist.

On to this weekend's games, here are the picks that I think have the best chance of hitting this upcoming weekend. I won't be including write ups this week, but I'll get back to it in the next week or two when I'm not as busy.

ATS

• Arizona (PK)
• Baltimore -3

Totals

• Baltimore Miami Under 38

Good luck this week everybody!